TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ CWS

Neutral air · 0.99×

CLE @ CWS

Rate Field · 2:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 33 · vs Cantillo ⟷ Rhys Hoskins conv 27 · vs Martin → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Joey Cantillo LHP · CLE

leak 38

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Miguel Vargas +390 C+ ●●●●○

3 Andrew Benintendi — D ●●●○○

FADE Davis Martin RHP · CWS

leak 19

0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins — C ●●●●○

2 Steven Kwan — D ●○○○○

3 Angel Martinez — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 19.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 38.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Cantillo +320 0.295 · 94.0 · 12.7% 38.5% 28.3% F B O C+ 68

· CLE Rhys Hoskins HOT vs Martin — 0.196 · 89.2 · 9.3% 33.3% 20.5% F B O C 51

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Cantillo Edge +390 0.234 · 90.7 · 10.8% 23.1% 28.4% F B O C+ 61

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Cantillo +330 0.225 · 88.8 · 10.0% 8.3% 15.4% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Cantillo — 0.185 · 88.8 · 8.5% 25.0% 17.0% F B O D 49

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Cantillo Edge +850 0.130 · 88.1 · 6.2% 23.1% 14.9% F B O D 40

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Cantillo — 0.130 · 87.7 · 7.1% 12.5% 5.8% F B O D 39

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Cantillo Edge +750 0.149 · 89.1 · 5.6% 8.3% 8.9% F B O D 39

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Martin Edge — 0.065 · 83.6 · 1.4% 8.3% 6.6% F B O D 22

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Martin Edge — 0.193 · 88.0 · 7.4% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 40

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Martin Edge +500 0.159 · 91.1 · 6.6% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 39

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Martin Edge +700 0.147 · 88.4 · 5.4% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 37

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Martin Edge +400 0.152 · 89.2 · 6.1% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 35

· CWS Edgar Quero COOL vs Cantillo Edge +950 0.041 · 90.4 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 29

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Martin Edge +750 0.120 · 86.4 · 4.4% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 32

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Cantillo — 0.146 · 87.1 · 6.2% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.3% BRK 27.9% OFF 13.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rhys Hoskins R

11.9% 15.4% 13.3% 12.9% C 51 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

113

Angel Martinez S Edge

8.1% 14.9% 3.3% 8.3% D 40 —

120

Chase Delauter L Edge

8.5% 5.9% 1.6% 6.4% D 39 +500

137

Travis Bazzana L Edge

4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9% D 37 +700

154

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 35 +400

175

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.3% 4.5% 1.1% 3.0% D 32 +750

206

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 22 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Martin's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 40.2% ← leak BRK 33.8% OFF 25.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L

20.7% 18.3% 18.2% 19.5% C+ 68 +320

Miguel Vargas R Edge

15.7% 12.4% 12.1% 14.4% C+ 61 +390

Colson Montgomery L

12.1% 11.9% 13.5% 12.3% C 55 +330

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Andrew Benintendi L

12.9% 4.7% 5.7% 9.0% D 49 —

114

Chase Meidroth R Edge

4.4% 6.3% 4.1% 4.9% D 40 +850

123

Braden Montgomery S Edge

3.0% 4.2% 2.6% 3.1% D 39 +750

126

Sam Antonacci L

8.0% 5.6% 0.0% 6.2% D 39 —

133

Tristan Peters L

5.8% 5.4% 0.0% 4.8% D 38 —

189

Edgar Quero S Edge

2.3% 0.0% 3.2% 2.2% D 29 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (40.2% usage) carries Cantillo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hoskins Murakami Vargas Benintendi Meidroth

Legend

attack side — vs Cantillo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Munetaka Murakami +320 · 68

Rhys Hoskins — · 51

Miguel Vargas +390 · 61

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 2:10p · roof unknown

Park 0.99× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 0.99× Unknown stadium — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Davis Martin · RHP 0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 51 C — HOT 47 0.196 89.2 9.3% 23.3%vs RHP 389 14.8% 33.3% 20.5% 11

2 Angel Martinez 40 D — WARM 113 0.193 88.0 7.4% 27.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 25

3 Chase Delauter 39 D +500 COOL 120 0.159 91.1 6.6% 24.5%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 35

4 Travis Bazzana 37 D +700 WARM 137 0.147 88.4 5.4% 18.8%vs RHP 396 11.0% 0.0% 9.4% 25

5 Jose Ramirez 35 D +400 COOL 154 0.152 89.2 6.1% 10.8%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 35

6 Brayan Rocchio 32 D +750 COOL 175 0.120 86.4 4.4% 11.7%vs RHP 386 7.2% 0.0% 7.6% 37

7 Steven Kwan 22 D — COOL 206 0.065 83.6 1.4% 3.3%vs RHP 372 1.9% 8.3% 6.6% 39

vs Joey Cantillo · LHP 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 68 C+ +320 · 6 0.295 94.0 12.7% 29.4%vs LHP 405 19.4% 38.5% 28.3% 31

2 Miguel Vargas 61 C+ +390 · 12 0.234 90.7 10.8% 25.7%vs LHP 392 20.2% 23.1% 28.4% 35

3 Colson Montgomery 55 C +330 COOL 25 0.225 88.8 10.0% 29.6%vs LHP 399 22.3% 8.3% 15.4% 27

4 Andrew Benintendi 49 D — · 55 0.185 88.8 8.5% 13.5% 389 14.5% 25.0% 17.0% 25

5 Chase Meidroth 40 D +850 WARM 114 0.130 88.1 6.2% 20.0%vs LHP 381 8.1% 23.1% 14.9% 39

6 Braden Montgomery 39 D +750 · 123 0.149 89.1 5.6% 11.1%vs LHP 383 6.9% 8.3% 8.9% 28

7 Sam Antonacci 39 D — COOL 126 0.130 87.7 7.1% 0.0%vs LHP 390 10.4% 12.5% 5.8% 35

8 Tristan Peters 38 D — COOL 133 0.146 87.1 6.2% 0.0%vs LHP 377 7.3% 0.0% 6.5% 26

9 Edgar Quero 29 D +950 COOL 189 0.041 90.4 4.1% 9.5%vs LHP 389 4.1% 0.0% 7.7% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.