TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ PIT

Playable air · 1.06×

NYM @ PIT

PNC Park · 1:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 5 mph slight_out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

1:35p

+3 ↑

2:35p

+3 ↑

3:35p

+3 ↑

4:35p

+3 ↑

5:35p

conditions hold steady across the window · +3 FIT

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 22 · vs Jones ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 27 · vs Manaea → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Jared Jones RHP · PIT

leak 95

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor +400 D ●●●○○

2 Marcus Semien +575 D ●●●○○

3 Carson Benge — D ●●○○○

FADE Sean Manaea LHP · NYM

leak 93

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +370 C ●●●●○

2 Bryan Reynolds +425 D ●○○○○

3 Jake Mangum — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: 12.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 28.6%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ vs Manaea +370 0.229 · 91.0 · 10.7% 28.6% 25.3% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYM Francisco Lindor COOL vs Jones Edge +400 0.189 · 91.5 · 8.6% 21.4% 22.6% F B O D 49

· NYM Marcus Semien vs Jones +575 0.151 · 86.7 · 7.6% 27.3% 16.7% F B O D 44

· NYM Carson Benge vs Jones Edge — 0.142 · 89.4 · 7.8% 15.4% 12.2% F B O D 41

· NYM Brett Baty vs Jones Edge +625 0.109 · 89.7 · 8.2% 9.1% 11.6% F B O D 38

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Manaea Edge +425 0.174 · 90.9 · 10.2% 7.1% 10.8% F B O D 48

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Jones +700 0.113 · 89.3 · 6.9% 7.1% 7.6% F B O D 36

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Manaea Edge — 0.075 · 85.6 · 3.3% 7.7% 5.9% F B O D 28

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Jones +475 0.180 · 90.1 · 11.5% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 44

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Manaea +625 0.165 · 86.9 · 8.6% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 43

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Jones Edge +750 0.138 · — · 7.9% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 35

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Manaea Edge +750 0.091 · 86.3 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 31

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Manaea Edge +950 0.064 · 87.3 · 4.5% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.1% ← leak BRK 42.5% OFF 12.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.0% 6.7% 7.3% 9.4% D 49 +400

Francisco Alvarez R

17.8% 16.4% 15.0% 16.9% D 44 +475

Marcus Semien R

10.2% 2.3% 7.4% 7.4% D 44 +575

108

Carson Benge L Edge

7.6% 10.0% 5.5% 7.8% D 41 —

129

Brett Baty L Edge

8.3% 12.0% 4.1% 8.2% D 38 +625

146

Bo Bichette R

4.6% 10.7% 0.0% 6.1% D 36 +700

153

A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.6% 10.2% 2.7% 7.9% D 35 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.1% usage) carries Jones's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.8% ← leak BRK 30.5% OFF 3.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Brandon Lowe L

16.6% 8.2% 9.1% 12.5% C 59 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.4% 14.7% 7.2% 11.3% D 48 +425

Spencer Horwitz L

7.9% 7.0% 10.7% 8.0% D 43 +625

182

Nick Gonzales R Edge

2.3% 5.0% 0.0% 2.9% D 31 +750

193

Jake Mangum S Edge

2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 28 —

194

Jared Triolo R Edge

2.5% 2.8% 0.0% 2.3% D 28 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.8% usage) carries Manaea's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lindor Semien Benge Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Jones fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Brandon Lowe +370 · 59

Francisco Lindor +400 · 49

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 5 mph slight_out 82°F open

↑

6 mph · slight_out

78°F

1:35p · peak

↑

7 mph · slight_out

80°F

2:35p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

83°F

3:35p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

86°F

4:35p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

86°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 82°F, wind 5 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jared Jones · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 49 D +400 COOL 57 0.189 91.5 8.6% 17.9%vs RHP 393 11.8% 21.4% 22.6% 35

2 Francisco Alvarez 44 D +475 COOL 85 0.180 90.1 11.5% 26.3%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 20

3 Marcus Semien 44 D +575 WARM 87 0.151 86.7 7.6% 17.7%vs RHP 391 12.6% 27.3% 16.7% 32

4 Carson Benge 41 D — WARM 108 0.142 89.4 7.8% 15.2%vs RHP 401 9.8% 15.4% 12.2% 32

5 Brett Baty 38 D +625 WARM 129 0.109 89.7 8.2% 12.5%vs RHP 396 6.5% 9.1% 11.6% 15

6 Bo Bichette 36 D +700 COOL 146 0.113 89.3 6.9% 9.0%vs RHP 388 8.8% 7.1% 7.6% 43

7 A.J. Ewing 35 D +750 WARM 153 0.138 — 7.9% 13.5%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 40

vs Sean Manaea · LHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe ✶ 59 C +370 · 17 0.229 91.0 10.7% 14.3%vs LHP 393 17.0% 28.6% 25.3% 37

2 Bryan Reynolds 48 D +425 · 67 0.174 90.9 10.2% 20.0%vs LHP 409 12.2% 7.1% 10.8% 37

3 Spencer Horwitz 43 D +625 COOL 95 0.165 86.9 8.6% 14.3%vs LHP 395 11.0% 0.0% 10.8% 17

4 Nick Gonzales 31 D +750 WARM 182 0.091 86.3 5.2% 3.7%vs LHP 397 7.1% 0.0% 6.3% 50

5 Jake Mangum 28 D — WARM 193 0.075 85.6 3.3% 0.0%vs LHP 384 4.1% 7.7% 5.9% 39

6 Jared Triolo 28 D +950 COOL 194 0.064 87.3 4.5% 0.0%vs LHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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