TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.93×

LAA @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 1:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 14 mph in 93°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-16 ↑

1:40p

-15 ↑

2:40p

-15 ↑

3:40p

-15 ↑

4:40p

-14 ↑

5:40p

conditions build late — the 5:40p window peaks -14

Best of game Mike Trout conv 10 · vs Gusto ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 26 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Kyle Stowers

ATTACK Ryan Gusto RHP · MIA

leak 70

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mike Trout +390 D ●●○○○

2 Zach Neto +525 D ●○○○○

3 Vaughn Grissom +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Grayson Rodriguez RHP · LAA

leak 64

1.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers +320 C ●●●●○

2 Heriberto Hernández +425 D ●○○○○

3 Javier Sanoja — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Stowers: 11.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIA Kyle Stowers ✶ vs Rodriguez Edge +320 0.218 · 92.0 · 11.1% 30.8% 21.2% F B O C 54

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +425 0.208 · 91.6 · 12.8% 0.0% 12.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Gusto +390 0.207 · 90.2 · 11.8% 8.3% 12.1% F B O D 48

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Rodriguez +425 0.224 · 91.7 · 11.4% 0.0% 19.2% F B O D 47

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Gusto +525 0.194 · 89.5 · 10.0% 8.3% 10.7% F B O D 45

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Rodriguez — 0.136 · 86.7 · 4.5% 11.1% 6.5% F B O D 32

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Rodriguez Edge +750 0.103 · 87.0 · 6.2% 11.1% 6.1% F B O D 32

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Gusto +850 0.140 · 88.7 · 7.3% 8.3% 7.6% F B O D 34

· LAA Nolan Schanuel HOT vs Gusto Edge +950 0.119 · 87.5 · 4.6% 8.3% 6.2% F B O D 28

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Rodriguez +750 0.153 · 89.2 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 38

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Gusto +850 0.127 · 87.6 · 7.7% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 32

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Gusto Edge +575 0.144 · 89.2 · 8.6% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 35

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +900 0.106 · 86.9 · 6.4% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.0% BRK 28.2% OFF 16.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Mike Trout R

16.0% 25.0% 12.5% 17.2% D 48 +390

Zach Neto R

14.7% 8.3% 10.5% 12.3% D 45 +525

157

Josh Lowe L Edge

13.0% 2.7% 6.7% 9.0% D 35 +575

162

Vaughn Grissom R

8.1% 6.7% 0.0% 6.5% D 34 +850

174

Oswald Peraza R

6.4% 7.0% 12.0% 7.3% D 32 +850

192

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

2.8% 3.8% 0.0% 2.6% D 28 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Gusto's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.4% ← leak OFF 23.8% BRK 22.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Stowers L Edge

10.2% 7.7% 17.5% 11.7% C 54 +320

Owen Caissie L Edge

17.4% 21.4% 7.9% 15.6% C 50 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Heriberto Hernández R

11.8% 16.7% 11.7% 12.2% D 47 +425

131

Otto Lopez R

9.1% 1.6% 4.3% 6.3% D 38 +750

177

Javier Sanoja R

2.0% 0.0% 2.3% 1.9% D 32 —

178

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.1% 8.1% 2.0% 3.6% D 32 +750

186

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.6% 2.9% 2.5% 3.8% D 30 +900

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.4% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers

Legend

attack side — vs Gusto fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Stowers +320 · 54

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 1:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.85× Wind 14 mph in 93°F retractable

-16

↑

13 mph · in

90°F

1:40p

-15

↑

13 mph · in

90°F

2:40p

-15

↑

13 mph · in

90°F

3:40p

-15

↑

13 mph · in

90°F

4:40p

-14

↑

13 mph · in

88°F

5:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.93× 93°F, wind 14 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Gusto · RHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 48 D +390 COOL 65 0.207 90.2 11.8% 24.6%vs RHP 408 15.8% 8.3% 12.1% 29

2 Zach Neto 45 D +525 COOL 82 0.194 89.5 10.0% 19.2%vs RHP 402 16.4% 8.3% 10.7% 30

3 Josh Lowe 35 D +575 · 157 0.144 89.2 8.6% 15.7%vs RHP 396 9.5% 0.0% 7.4% 12

4 Vaughn Grissom 34 D +850 COOL 162 0.140 88.7 7.3% 18.4%vs RHP 390 9.8% 8.3% 7.6% 33

5 Oswald Peraza 32 D +850 WARM 174 0.127 87.6 7.7% 8.3%vs RHP 386 6.1% 0.0% 7.8% 7

6 Nolan Schanuel 28 D +950 HOT 192 0.119 87.5 4.6% 10.0%vs RHP 375 7.1% 8.3% 6.2% 41

vs Grayson Rodriguez · RHP 1.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers ✶ 54 C +320 · 27 0.218 92.0 11.1% 24.2%vs RHP 396 13.6% 30.8% 21.2% 35

2 Owen Caissie 50 C +425 COOL 52 0.208 91.6 12.8% 27.3%vs RHP 398 14.7% 0.0% 12.4% 10

3 Heriberto Hernández 47 D +425 COOL 69 0.224 91.7 11.4% 16.7%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 28

4 Otto Lopez 38 D +750 COOL 131 0.153 89.2 8.2% 11.3%vs RHP 402 7.1% 0.0% 8.4% 51

5 Javier Sanoja 32 D — WARM 177 0.136 86.7 4.5% 2.8%vs RHP 383 5.3% 11.1% 6.5% 33

6 Jakob Marsee 32 D +750 · 178 0.103 87.0 6.2% 8.5%vs RHP 380 6.5% 11.1% 6.1% 26

7 Xavier Edwards 30 D +900 COOL 186 0.106 86.9 6.4% 3.0%vs RHP 396 4.4% 0.0% 5.5% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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