TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.44×

CIN @ WSH

Nationals Park · 12:15p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.20× Wind 6 mph slight_out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

12:15p

+8 ↑

1:15p

+8 ↑

2:15p

+9 ↑

3:15p

+9 ↑

4:15p

conditions build late — the 3:15p window peaks +9

Best of game Jj Bleday conv 69 · vs Lord ⟷ Daylen Lile conv 24 · vs Singer → edge: Jj Bleday

ATTACK Brad Lord RHP · WSH

leak 95

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jj Bleday +350 C+ ●●●●●

2 Sal Stewart +330 C+ ●●●●●

3 Elly De La Cruz +400 C+ ●●●●○

FADE Brady Singer RHP · CIN

leak 90

1.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.93 · stingy — thin edge

1 Daylen Lile +425 C ●●●●○

2 Cj Abrams +305 C+ ●●●○○

3 Dylan Crews +425 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jj Bleday: Match 38.2% · 14D pace 100.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Jj Bleday ✶ COOL vs Lord Edge +350 0.238 · 88.8 · 8.5% 100.0% 38.2% F B O C+ 62

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Lord +330 0.224 · 90.5 · 9.6% 38.5% 30.4% F B O C+ 66

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Lord Edge +400 0.232 · 94.0 · 9.8% 21.4% 36.1% F B O C+ 66

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Singer Edge +425 0.176 · 88.3 · 8.5% 25.0% 23.4% F B O C 58

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Lord +500 0.165 · 91.0 · 9.0% 20.0% 21.4% F B O C 54

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Singer Edge +305 0.260 · 89.7 · 9.6% 0.0% 39.9% F B O C+ 68

· CIN Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Lord +350 0.192 · 88.6 · 8.7% 0.0% 26.8% F B O C 51

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Singer +425 0.148 · 90.7 · 9.5% 7.7% 11.8% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· CIN Matt Mclain vs Lord +575 0.153 · 88.0 · 8.1% 0.0% 17.5% F B O D 48

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Singer — 0.153 · 88.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 49

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Lord Edge — 0.083 · 87.5 · 4.1% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 38

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Singer Edge +525 0.168 · 88.6 · 6.2% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 49

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.038 · 84.6 · 1.8% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.6% BRK 35.1% OFF 5.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

18.4% 10.5% 5.4% 14.0% C+ 66 +400

Sal Stewart R

17.1% 9.9% 10.0% 13.9% C+ 66 +330

Jj Bleday L Edge

13.5% 7.7% 5.7% 10.4% C+ 62 +350

Tyler Stephenson R

15.4% 6.7% 5.9% 12.0% C 54 +500

Eugenio Suarez R

13.6% 5.6% 6.2% 11.3% C 51 +350

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Matt Mclain R

11.6% 9.5% 0.0% 9.9% D 48 +575

135

Tj Friedl L Edge

2.8% 4.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 38 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Lord's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.6% ← leak BRK 42.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Cj Abrams L Edge

11.1% 9.9% 10.9% C+ 68 +305

Daylen Lile L Edge

8.4% 10.9% 8.0% C 58 +425

Dylan Crews R

6.4% 23.5% 10.1% C 55 +425

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Jacob Young R

8.2% 4.1% 6.3% D 49 —

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

6.1% 3.3% 4.6% D 49 +525

190

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.7% 0.0% 0.4% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.6% usage) carries Singer's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Stewart Bleday Stephenson Suarez Abrams Lile

Legend

attack side — vs Lord fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Jj Bleday +350 · 62

Sal Stewart +330 · 66

Elly De La Cruz +400 · 66

Daylen Lile +425 · 58

Tyler Stephenson +500 · 54

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 12:15p · roof open

Park 1.20× Wind 6 mph slight_out 85°F open

↑

6 mph · slight_out

85°F

12:15p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

87°F

1:15p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

88°F

2:15p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

90°F

3:15p · peak

↑

5 mph · slight_out

92°F

4:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.44× 85°F, wind 6 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brad Lord · RHP 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 66 C+ +400 · 7 0.232 94.0 9.8% 21.8%vs RHP 396 17.7% 21.4% 36.1% 35

2 Sal Stewart 66 C+ +330 · 8 0.224 90.5 9.6% 24.4%vs RHP 395 16.8% 38.5% 30.4% 31

3 Jj Bleday ✶ 62 C+ +350 COOL 11 0.238 88.8 8.5% 24.6%vs RHP 388 20.0% 100.0% 38.2% 28

4 Tyler Stephenson 54 C +500 WARM 34 0.165 91.0 9.0% 20.4%vs RHP 392 8.9% 20.0% 21.4% 19

5 Eugenio Suarez 51 C +350 HOT 40 0.192 88.6 8.7% 26.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 26.8% 18

6 Matt Mclain 48 D +575 WARM 64 0.153 88.0 8.1% 11.1%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 18

7 Tj Friedl 38 D — COOL 135 0.083 87.5 4.1% 7.3%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 7

vs Brady Singer · RHP 1.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.93 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 68 C+ +305 · 5 0.260 89.7 9.6% 31.1%vs RHP 396 33.3% 0.0% 39.9% 34

2 Daylen Lile 58 C +425 WARM 19 0.176 88.3 8.5% 13.4%vs RHP 400 10.8% 25.0% 23.4% 35

3 Dylan Crews 55 C +425 · 26 0.148 90.7 9.5% 14.7%vs RHP 406 16.7% 7.7% 11.8% 35

4 Jacob Young 49 D — COOL 62 0.153 88.4 7.3% 16.3%vs RHP 396 7.4% 0.0% 12.5% 25

5 Keibert Ruiz 49 D +525 COOL 63 0.168 88.6 6.2% 7.7%vs RHP 377 9.3% 0.0% 12.1% 27

6 Nasim Nunez 29 D — COOL 190 0.038 84.6 1.8% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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