TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.47×

ATL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 1:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 8 mph out 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

1:35p

+10 ↑

2:35p

+10 ↑

3:35p

+9 ↑

4:35p

+8 ↑

5:35p

best window is early — 2:35p at +10

Best of game Ben Rice conv 22 · vs Holmes ⟷ Matt Olson conv 40 · vs Schlittler → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Grant Holmes RHP · ATL

leak 87

1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice +265 B ●●●○○

2 Austin Wells +500 D ●●○○○

3 Trent Grisham +290 C ●●○○○

FADE Cam Schlittler RHP · NYY

leak 31

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +255 C+ ●●●●●

2 Mike Yastrzemski +500 D ●●●○○

3 Austin Riley +425 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 15.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Schlittler Edge +255 0.284 · 92.6 · 11.2% 50.0% 30.7% F B O C+ 69

· NYY Ben Rice COOL vs Holmes Edge +265 0.285 · 92.0 · 11.9% 15.4% 27.7% F B O B 70

· NYY Trent Grisham COOL vs Holmes Edge +290 0.167 · 90.4 · 9.2% 8.3% 11.7% F B O C 50

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Holmes — 0.205 · 86.5 · 9.7% 0.0% 14.4% F B O C 54

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Schlittler Edge +350 0.186 · 91.6 · 10.7% 0.0% 13.2% F B O C 50

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Holmes Edge +400 0.162 · 91.2 · 9.7% 0.0% 12.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Schlittler Edge +500 0.150 · 90.3 · 7.7% 22.2% 15.9% F B O D 44

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Schlittler +425 0.147 · 90.9 · 9.7% 15.4% 17.7% F B O D 46

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Schlittler Edge — 0.133 · 87.9 · 6.8% 16.7% 10.9% F B O D 39

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Schlittler Edge +500 0.174 · 86.8 · 6.0% 15.4% 10.4% F B O D 43

· NYY Austin Wells HOT vs Holmes Edge +500 0.121 · 89.4 · 8.2% 10.0% 10.9% F B O D 45

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Holmes — 0.150 · 83.9 · 6.1% 0.0% 18.6% F B O D 41

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Schlittler +850 0.134 · 86.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 89.8% ← leak BRK 10.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Matt Olson L Edge

17.6% 11.9% 15.2% C+ 69 +255

Drake Baldwin L Edge

14.3% 19.4% 14.2% C 50 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Austin Riley R

13.3% 11.1% 11.6% D 46 +425

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

8.3% 6.2% 7.5% D 44 +500

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.7% 1.9% 4.4% D 43 +500

122

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.0% 7.5% 5.7% D 39 —

167

Mauricio Dubon R

3.0% 5.9% 4.2% D 33 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (89.8% usage) carries Schlittler's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.4% ← leak BRK 43.9% OFF 5.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

18.2% 12.5% 13.5% 15.6% B 70 +265

Neutral · 3

Paul Goldschmidt R

14.0% 4.6% 9.1% 10.5% C 54 —

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

13.3% 4.5% 12.5% 10.8% C 50 +400

Trent Grisham L Edge

10.3% 8.5% 5.3% 9.3% C 50 +290

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Austin Wells L Edge

9.1% 8.8% 0.0% 7.6% D 45 +500

107

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.4% usage) carries Holmes's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Riley Yastrzemski Smith Rice

Legend

attack side — vs Holmes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Matt Olson +255 · 69

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 8 mph out 88°F open

↑

8 mph · out

85°F

1:35p

+10

↑

9 mph · out

86°F

2:35p · peak

+10

↑

10 mph · slight_out

86°F

3:35p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

85°F

4:35p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

85°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.47× 88°F, wind 8 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cam Schlittler · RHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 69 C+ +255 WARM 4 0.284 92.6 11.2% 33.3%vs RHP 407 24.6% 50.0% 30.7% 33

2 Drake Baldwin 50 C +350 COOL 51 0.186 91.6 10.7% 28.3%vs RHP 403 17.5% 0.0% 13.2% 41

3 Austin Riley 46 D +425 HOT 77 0.147 90.9 9.7% 18.5%vs RHP 405 9.5% 15.4% 17.7% 22

4 Mike Yastrzemski 44 D +500 WARM 88 0.150 90.3 7.7% 17.9%vs RHP 392 9.5% 22.2% 15.9% 15

5 Ozzie Albies 43 D +500 · 96 0.174 86.8 6.0% 13.9%vs RHP 386 14.5% 15.4% 10.4% 41

6 Dominic Smith 39 D — · 122 0.133 87.9 6.8% 15.4%vs RHP 392 8.4% 16.7% 10.9% 15

7 Mauricio Dubon 33 D +850 COOL 167 0.134 86.8 5.8% 11.5%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 41

vs Grant Holmes · RHP 1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 70 B +265 COOL 3 0.285 92.0 11.9% 31.9%vs RHP 390 25.5% 15.4% 27.7% 30

2 Paul Goldschmidt 54 C — COOL 30 0.205 86.5 9.7% 18.4%vs RHP 390 15.9% 0.0% 14.4% 27

3 Ryan Mcmahon 50 C +400 · 48 0.162 91.2 9.7% 21.3%vs RHP 387 16.7% 0.0% 12.2% 21

4 Trent Grisham 50 C +290 COOL 53 0.167 90.4 9.2% 15.8%vs RHP 388 11.0% 8.3% 11.7% 34

5 Austin Wells 45 D +500 HOT 81 0.121 89.4 8.2% 15.8%vs RHP 387 10.0% 10.0% 10.9% 17

6 Jose Caballero 41 D — WARM 107 0.150 83.9 6.1% 22.2%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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