TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ SEA

Neutral air · 1.00×

TB @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 4:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 2 mph out 76°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+1 ↑

1:10p

+2 ↑

2:10p

+1 ↑

3:10p

-1 ↑

4:10p

-4 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 2:10p at +2

Best of game Dominic Canzone conv 20 · vs Proxy ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 28 · vs Hancock → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK TB Bullpen Proxy

leak 53

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dominic Canzone — C+ ●●●○○

2 Randy Arozarena — D ●●●○○

3 Julio Rodríguez — C ●●●○○

FADE Emerson Hancock RHP · SEA

leak 30

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — C+ ●●●●○

2 Richie Palacios — D ●●○○○

3 Cedric Mullins — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Hancock — 0.271 · 93.1 · 11.1% 25.0% 31.0% F B O C+ 65

· — Dominic Canzone vs Proxy — 0.244 · 91.6 · 13.9% 15.4% 25.3% F B O C+ 62

· — Julio Rodríguez vs Proxy — 0.168 · 89.9 · 8.9% 23.1% 15.5% F B O C 50

· — Cal Raleigh HOT vs Proxy — 0.144 · 88.8 · 13.0% 18.2% 14.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Randy Arozarena vs Proxy — 0.169 · 91.1 · 7.8% 23.1% 16.0% F B O D 47

· TB Richie Palacios vs Hancock Edge — 0.114 · 85.9 · 6.2% 12.5% 12.3% F B O D 36

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Hancock Edge — 0.152 · 88.0 · 5.8% 10.0% 10.7% F B O D 40

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Hancock Edge — 0.153 · 90.9 · 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% F B O D 45

· — Colt Emerson vs Proxy — 0.154 · 86.7 · 5.1% 7.7% 10.0% F B O D 39

· — Cole Young vs Proxy — 0.147 · 88.8 · 5.1% 7.7% 8.5% F B O D 39

· — Josh Naylor vs Proxy — 0.095 · 87.7 · 4.4% 8.3% 7.8% F B O D 32

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Hancock — 0.156 · 90.8 · 7.8% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 39

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Hancock — 0.107 · 85.8 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Hancock Edge — 0.058 · 84.0 · — 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 18

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Hancock Edge — 0.065 · 85.3 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 74.5% ← leak BRK 20.4% OFF 5.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

17.3% 11.2% 7.8% 13.8% C+ 65 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.4% 14.3% 5.2% 10.3% D 45 —

115

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.0% 3.4% 8.3% 3.8% D 40 —

118

Yandy Diaz R

5.6% 10.3% 4.4% 7.0% D 39 —

143

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.6% 2.1% 3.4% 4.3% D 36 —

176

Nick Fortes R

3.0% 1.9% 0.0% 2.3% D 32 —

197

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 27 —

209

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 18 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (74.5% usage) carries Hancock's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for TB Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Canzone Raleigh Rodríguez Arozarena

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Junior Caminero — · 65

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.00× Wind 2 mph out 76°F retractable

↑

1 mph · slight_out

75°F

1:10p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

78°F

2:10p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

78°F

3:10p

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

78°F

4:10p

-4

↑

8 mph · cross

77°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 76°F, wind 2 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Emerson Hancock · RHP 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 65 C+ — WARM 10 0.271 93.1 11.1% 40.6%vs RHP 412 26.5% 25.0% 31.0% 34

2 Jonathan Aranda 45 D — · 79 0.153 90.9 9.5% 18.1%vs RHP 386 12.0% 10.0% 10.5% 34

3 Cedric Mullins 40 D — COOL 115 0.152 88.0 5.8% 20.6%vs RHP 389 13.2% 10.0% 10.7% 23

4 Yandy Diaz 39 D — · 118 0.156 90.8 7.8% 20.4%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 36

5 Richie Palacios 36 D — WARM 143 0.114 85.9 6.2% 14.3%vs RHP 398 4.9% 12.5% 12.3% 14

6 Nick Fortes 32 D — COOL 176 0.107 85.8 4.5% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.7% 0.0% 7.5% 16

7 Taylor Walls 27 D — COOL 197 0.065 85.3 4.7% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 19

8 Chandler Simpson 18 D — COOL 209 0.058 84.0 — 2.9%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 41

vs TB Bullpen Proxy 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 62 C+ — · 18 0.244 91.6 13.9% 23.7% 403 16.1% 15.4% 25.3% 40

2 Cal Raleigh 50 C — HOT 74 0.144 88.8 13.0% 11.3% 395 13.0% 18.2% 14.1% 21

3 Julio Rodríguez 50 C — · 75 0.168 89.9 8.9% 16.4% 406 17.0% 23.1% 15.5% 41

4 Randy Arozarena 47 D — WARM 90 0.169 91.1 7.8% 18.2% 391 12.3% 23.1% 16.0% 41

5 Colt Emerson 39 D — · 151 0.154 86.7 5.1% 19.0% 376 10.0% 7.7% 10.0% 28

6 Cole Young 39 D — · 152 0.147 88.8 5.1% 11.2% 387 11.5% 7.7% 8.5% 46

7 Josh Naylor 32 D — WARM 191 0.095 87.7 4.4% 6.8% 390 7.3% 8.3% 7.8% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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