TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.20×

LAD @ AZ

Chase Field · 4:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 6 mph cross 110°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-1 ↑

1:10p

-1 ↑

2:10p

+0 ↑

3:10p

+1 ↑

4:10p

+1 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 4:10p window peaks +1

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 22 · vs Wrobleski ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 26 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Justin Wrobleski LHP · LAD

leak 95

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +500 D ●●●○○

2 Corbin Carroll +500 C ●●○○○

3 Geraldo Perdomo +950 D ●●○○○

FADE Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · AZ

leak 30

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani +305 C+ ●●●●○

2 Max Muncy — C ●●●○○

3 Andy Pages +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: 16.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ COOL vs Rodriguez +305 0.255 · 93.4 · 11.9% 25.0% 26.7% F B O C+ 61

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.239 · 90.5 · 10.8% 14.3% 20.6% F B O C 55

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Wrobleski +500 0.224 · 91.6 · 10.3% 7.7% 14.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Wrobleski Edge +500 0.189 · 85.2 · 8.0% 25.0% 19.9% F B O D 47

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +500 0.188 · 89.1 · 8.1% 16.7% 11.1% F B O D 45

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Rodriguez +525 0.134 · 89.0 · 7.5% 18.2% 8.0% F B O D 38

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Wrobleski Edge +950 0.129 · 87.3 · 5.5% 15.4% 5.9% F B O D 34

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Wrobleski Edge +370 0.190 · 90.3 · 9.4% 7.7% 12.0% F B O D 47

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Wrobleski Edge +700 0.142 · 89.3 · 8.0% 9.1% 7.7% F B O D 39

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +500 0.157 · 89.3 · 8.9% 0.0% 14.9% F B O D 38

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Rodriguez +625 0.173 · 89.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 42

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Wrobleski Edge +950 0.139 · 87.7 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 33

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +525 0.162 · 90.5 · 8.0% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 39

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt vs Wrobleski Edge +850 0.125 · 88.2 · 8.5% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 60.2% ← leak OFF 26.9% BRK 12.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Shohei Ohtani L

20.8% 16.0% 10.5% 16.7% C+ 61 +305

Max Muncy L

14.5% 6.2% 8.6% 11.3% C 55 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Andy Pages R Edge

7.0% 9.1% 8.1% 7.5% D 45 +500

102

Freddie Freeman L

9.2% 9.1% 9.1% 9.2% D 42 +625

125

Mookie Betts R Edge

9.1% 6.5% 3.3% 7.5% D 39 +525

127

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

9.0% 7.1% 12.8% 9.5% D 38 +500

134

Kyle Tucker L

9.8% 1.5% 3.3% 6.6% D 38 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.2% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.5% ← leak BRK 36.9% OFF 5.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Corbin Carroll L

10.6% 15.0% 11.1% 12.1% C 51 +500

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Nolan Arenado R Edge

10.5% 2.2% 6.2% 7.3% D 47 +500

Ketel Marte S Edge

13.7% 7.2% 3.8% 9.9% D 47 +370

124

Gabriel Moreno R Edge

6.9% 7.4% 8.8% 7.3% D 39 +700

148

Ryan Waldschmidt R Edge

9.5% 5.6% 0.0% 7.3% D 36 +850

163

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.3% 1.8% 2.4% 3.4% D 34 +950

170

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.2% 3.2% 1.5% 3.4% D 33 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.5% usage) carries Wrobleski's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Muncy Pages Tucker Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Wrobleski fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Shohei Ohtani +305 · 61

Nolan Arenado +500 · 47

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.93× Wind 6 mph cross 110°F retractable

-1

↑

6 mph · cross

109°F

1:10p

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

112°F

2:10p

↑

8 mph · cross

115°F

3:10p

↑

10 mph · cross

119°F

4:10p · peak

↑

11 mph · cross

120°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 110°F, wind 6 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eduardo Rodriguez · LHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 61 C+ +305 COOL 14 0.255 93.4 11.9% 32.4%vs LHP 403 19.6% 25.0% 26.7% 31

2 Max Muncy 55 C — COOL 24 0.239 90.5 10.8% 28.0%vs LHP 411 18.6% 14.3% 20.6% 29

3 Andy Pages 45 D +500 COOL 80 0.188 89.1 8.1% 17.6%vs LHP 392 14.0% 16.7% 11.1% 38

4 Freddie Freeman 42 D +625 COOL 102 0.173 89.9 8.8% 14.3%vs LHP 398 11.5% 0.0% 9.1% 41

5 Mookie Betts 39 D +525 COOL 125 0.162 90.5 8.0% 5.6%vs LHP 389 9.5% 0.0% 7.4% 42

6 Teoscar Hernandez 38 D +500 COOL 127 0.157 89.3 8.9% 19.1%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 35

7 Kyle Tucker 38 D +525 COOL 134 0.134 89.0 7.5% 6.9%vs LHP 395 8.3% 18.2% 8.0% 32

vs Justin Wrobleski · LHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 51 C +500 · 45 0.224 91.6 10.3% 16.7%vs LHP 401 13.3% 7.7% 14.8% 42

2 Nolan Arenado 47 D +500 · 70 0.189 85.2 8.0% 28.6%vs LHP 390 14.8% 25.0% 19.9% 33

3 Ketel Marte 47 D +370 COOL 72 0.190 90.3 9.4% 29.6%vs LHP 412 14.1% 7.7% 12.0% 35

4 Gabriel Moreno 39 D +700 COOL 124 0.142 89.3 8.0% 15.8%vs LHP 400 8.5% 9.1% 7.7% 38

5 Ryan Waldschmidt 36 D +850 · 148 0.125 88.2 8.5% 0.0%vs LHP 419 3.6% 0.0% 5.4% 28

6 Geraldo Perdomo 34 D +950 WARM 163 0.129 87.3 5.5% 4.5%vs LHP 383 7.8% 15.4% 5.9% 45

7 Ildemaro Vargas 33 D +950 WARM 170 0.139 87.7 5.5% 27.8%vs LHP 399 4.7% 0.0% 8.6% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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