TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.24×

TOR @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 1:35p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.13× Wind 9 mph cross 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

1:35p

+4 ↑

2:35p

+5 ↑

3:35p

+6 ↑

4:35p

+6 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 4:35p window peaks +6

Best of game Jesús Sánchez conv 16 · vs Luzardo ⟷ Bryce Harper conv 34 · vs Bieber → edge: Bryce Harper

ATTACK Jesús Luzardo LHP · PHI

leak 78

0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jesús Sánchez — D ●●○○○

2 George Springer +500 D ●○○○○

3 Nathan Lukes +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Shane Bieber RHP · TOR

leak 78

1.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.90 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryce Harper +350 B ●●●●●

2 Trea Turner +500 C ●●●○○

3 Kyle Schwarber +198 B ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Bryce Harper: 11.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Bryce Harper ✶ vs Bieber Edge +350 0.243 · 90.3 · 10.6% 30.8% 36.6% F B O B 71

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Bieber +500 0.150 · 88.6 · 7.9% 23.1% 16.4% F B O C 54

· PHI Kyle Schwarber COOL vs Bieber Edge +198 0.276 · 93.2 · 12.9% 0.0% 22.8% F B O B 72

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Bieber Edge +525 0.157 · 89.6 · 8.1% 7.7% 10.2% F B O C 51

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Luzardo Edge +425 0.207 · 90.5 · 8.9% 0.0% 15.5% F B O C 53

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Bieber Edge +575 0.168 · 89.5 · 9.2% 0.0% 12.8% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Luzardo — 0.170 · 90.9 · 8.6% 16.7% 14.7% F B O D 49

· TOR George Springer vs Luzardo Edge +500 0.162 · 88.5 · 6.7% 8.3% 10.4% F B O D 45

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Luzardo +950 0.098 · 86.5 · 2.4% 9.1% 8.7% F B O D 33

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Luzardo Edge +950 0.127 · 84.9 · 3.9% 7.7% 8.8% F B O D 36

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Bieber +575 0.132 · — · 7.0% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 43

· PHI Alec Bohm COOL vs Bieber +575 0.133 · 90.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 48

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Luzardo — 0.124 · 85.9 · 4.7% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 34

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Luzardo Edge +950 0.114 · 86.1 · 4.7% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 35

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Bieber Edge +950 0.083 · 86.8 · 3.4% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 43.7% ← leak BRK 37.6% OFF 18.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R Edge

15.1% 7.4% 15.8% 12.9% C 53 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jesús Sánchez L

10.0% 19.6% 0.0% 11.4% D 49 —

George Springer R Edge

8.0% 5.7% 7.7% 7.2% D 45 +500

144

Ernie Clement R Edge

2.7% 2.4% 2.0% 2.5% D 36 +950

156

Myles Straw R Edge

4.1% 0.0% 7.7% 3.5% D 35 +950

160

Andres Gimenez L

3.9% 2.3% 5.4% 3.6% D 34 —

172

Nathan Lukes L

0.0% 1.9% 2.6% 0.9% D 33 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.7% usage) carries Luzardo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.7% ← leak BRK 30.1% OFF 19.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

16.5% 14.7% 26.9% 17.1% B 72 +198

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.7% 14.2% 6.5% 11.5% B 71 +350

Neutral · 3

Brandon Marsh L Edge

7.6% 14.1% 2.3% 8.7% C 54 +575

Trea Turner R

8.3% 4.3% 2.6% 6.4% C 54 +500

Bryson Stott L Edge

8.6% 4.4% 5.2% 6.8% C 51 +525

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Alec Bohm R

4.5% 5.1% 8.8% 5.1% D 48 +575

J.T. Realmuto R

4.1% 7.4% 5.6% 5.0% D 43 +575

145

Justin Crawford L Edge

2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 36 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.7% usage) carries Bieber's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Sánchez Harper Turner

Legend

attack side — vs Luzardo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Bryce Harper +350 · 71

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.13× Wind 9 mph cross 83°F open

↑

8 mph · cross

83°F

1:35p

↑

9 mph · cross

84°F

2:35p

↑

9 mph · cross

85°F

3:35p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

85°F

4:35p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

84°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.24× 83°F, wind 9 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jesús Luzardo · LHP 0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 53 C +425 COOL 35 0.207 90.5 8.9% 19.2%vs LHP 397 17.7% 0.0% 15.5% 35

2 Jesús Sánchez 49 D — WARM 59 0.170 90.9 8.6% 0.0%vs LHP 398 11.1% 16.7% 14.7% 13

3 George Springer 45 D +500 · 84 0.162 88.5 6.7% 8.3%vs LHP 393 11.1% 8.3% 10.4% 38

4 Ernie Clement 36 D +950 COOL 144 0.127 84.9 3.9% 10.8%vs LHP 376 8.1% 7.7% 8.8% 46

5 Myles Straw 35 D +950 COOL 156 0.114 86.1 4.7% 6.1%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 30

6 Andres Gimenez 34 D — COOL 160 0.124 85.9 4.7% 16.7%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 35

7 Nathan Lukes 33 D +950 WARM 172 0.098 86.5 2.4% 8.8% 378 6.5% 9.1% 8.7% 40

vs Shane Bieber · RHP 1.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.90 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber 72 B +198 COOL 1 0.276 93.2 12.9% 41.2%vs RHP 403 22.2% 0.0% 22.8% 19

2 Bryce Harper ✶ 71 B +350 WARM 2 0.243 90.3 10.6% 36.4%vs RHP 403 20.4% 30.8% 36.6% 36

3 Brandon Marsh 54 C +575 COOL 31 0.168 89.5 9.2% 20.6%vs RHP 393 12.3% 0.0% 12.8% 41

4 Trea Turner 54 C +500 COOL 32 0.150 88.6 7.9% 21.0%vs RHP 393 14.4% 23.1% 16.4% 51

5 Bryson Stott 51 C +525 WARM 46 0.157 89.6 8.1% 9.3%vs RHP 389 7.4% 7.7% 10.2% 34

6 Alec Bohm 48 D +575 COOL 66 0.133 90.6 7.0% 14.9%vs RHP 396 11.0% 0.0% 11.4% 43

7 J.T. Realmuto 43 D +575 WARM 91 0.132 — 7.0% 18.9%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 26

8 Justin Crawford 36 D +950 WARM 145 0.083 86.8 3.4% 5.0%vs RHP 382 2.4% 0.0% 7.9% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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