TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ STL

Busch Stadium is live · 1.14×

COL @ STL

Busch Stadium · 2:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 10 mph slight_out 93°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

1:15p

+3 ↑

2:15p

+3 ↑

3:15p

+2 ↑

4:15p

+2 ↑

5:15p

best window is early — 1:15p at +3

Best of game Mickey Moniak conv 27 · vs McGreevy ⟷ Alec Burleson conv 14 · vs Lorenzen → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Michael McGreevy RHP · STL

leak 82

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mickey Moniak +400 C ●●●●○

2 Willi Castro +500 D ●●●●○

3 Hunter Goodman +265 C+ ●●●○○

FADE Michael Lorenzen RHP · COL

leak 57

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · stingy — thin edge

1 Alec Burleson +350 D ●●○○○

2 Jordan Walker +350 C ●●○○○

3 Nathan Church +750 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 11.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Mickey Moniak vs McGreevy Edge +400 0.293 · 89.4 · 10.8% 30.0% 23.7% F B O C 57

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs McGreevy +265 0.290 · 90.6 · 12.9% 11.1% 28.2% F B O C+ 61

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Lorenzen +350 0.205 · 92.9 · 10.9% 8.3% 11.7% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· COL Willi Castro vs McGreevy Edge +500 0.161 · 87.7 · 9.3% 37.5% 14.2% F B O D 43

· STL Alec Burleson vs Lorenzen Edge +350 0.192 · 91.8 · 10.2% 8.3% 19.5% F B O D 49

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs McGreevy +700 0.127 · 87.5 · 8.0% 11.1% 6.9% F B O D 35

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Lorenzen Edge +750 0.129 · 86.3 · 8.1% 9.1% 7.7% F B O D 37

· STL José Fermín vs Lorenzen — 0.117 · 86.5 · 4.5% 10.0% 5.8% F B O D 31

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs McGreevy Edge +750 0.198 · 85.0 · 6.9% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 39

· COL Kyle Karros COOL vs McGreevy +700 0.155 · 89.6 · 8.8% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 38

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs McGreevy Edge +700 0.167 · 83.9 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 35

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Lorenzen Edge +475 0.138 · 89.6 · 8.0% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 37

· STL Ivan Herrera HOT vs Lorenzen +500 0.139 · 89.2 · 7.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 33

· STL Masyn Winn COOL vs Lorenzen +850 0.080 · 88.0 · 5.2% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 27

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs McGreevy Edge +850 0.107 · 89.6 · 4.4% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 26

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs McGreevy — 0.067 · 87.6 · 3.6% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.8% ← leak BRK 26.4% OFF 19.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Hunter Goodman R

18.9% 14.9% 10.3% 16.5% C+ 61 +265

Mickey Moniak L Edge

9.3% 22.7% 2.2% 10.7% C 57 +400

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Willi Castro S Edge

11.2% 6.2% 5.7% 8.6% D 43 +500

119

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

5.6% 1.4% 6.4% 4.7% D 39 +750

130

Kyle Karros R

7.5% 4.8% 11.5% 7.3% D 38 +700

155

Tj Rumfield L Edge

5.7% 2.0% 5.6% 4.5% D 35 +700

158

Ezequiel Tovar R

5.6% 7.0% 8.3% 6.4% D 35 +700

200

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 1.9% D 26 +850

204

Tyler Freeman R

2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.8% usage) carries McGreevy's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.0% ← leak BRK 27.1% OFF 20.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R

13.4% 11.7% 14.7% 13.0% C 50 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.7% 12.3% 10.5% 11.6% D 49 +350

136

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

9.6% 4.5% 2.0% 7.2% D 37 +475

139

Nathan Church L Edge

8.0% 6.7% 5.2% 6.9% D 37 +750

166

Ivan Herrera R

5.6% 5.2% 6.8% 5.6% D 33 +500

183

José Fermín R

2.6% 2.4% 0.0% 2.2% D 31 —

198

Masyn Winn R

3.4% 2.2% 3.2% 3.0% D 27 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.0% usage) carries Lorenzen's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Castro Burleson

Legend

attack side — vs McGreevy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Mickey Moniak +400 · 57

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 1:15p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 10 mph slight_out 93°F open

↑

11 mph · slight_out

88°F

1:15p · peak

↑

11 mph · slight_out

91°F

2:15p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

94°F

3:15p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

96°F

4:15p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

94°F

5:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.14× 93°F, wind 10 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael McGreevy · RHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 61 C+ +265 COOL 13 0.290 90.6 12.9% 40.6%vs RHP 411 23.8% 11.1% 28.2% 19

2 Mickey Moniak 57 C +400 · 20 0.293 89.4 10.8% 25.4%vs RHP 417 18.4% 30.0% 23.7% 29

3 Willi Castro 43 D +500 WARM 94 0.161 87.7 9.3% 17.5%vs RHP 411 11.5% 37.5% 14.2% 23

4 Jake Mccarthy 39 D +750 COOL 119 0.198 85.0 6.9% 14.8%vs RHP 415 13.3% 0.0% 13.8% 44

5 Kyle Karros 38 D +700 COOL 130 0.155 89.6 8.8% 22.2%vs RHP 417 10.0% 0.0% 8.9% 22

6 Tj Rumfield 35 D +700 COOL 155 0.167 83.9 6.9% 16.0%vs RHP 410 6.7% 0.0% 8.6% 35

7 Ezequiel Tovar 35 D +700 WARM 158 0.127 87.5 8.0% 15.5%vs RHP 408 7.8% 11.1% 6.9% 22

8 Troy Johnston 26 D +850 COOL 200 0.107 89.6 4.4% 7.1%vs RHP 415 1.2% 0.0% 5.9% 18

9 Tyler Freeman 23 D — COOL 204 0.067 87.6 3.6% 3.7%vs RHP 369 1.9% 0.0% 5.7% 18

vs Michael Lorenzen · RHP 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 50 C +350 COOL 54 0.205 92.9 10.9% 27.9%vs RHP 406 17.3% 8.3% 11.7% 36

2 Alec Burleson 49 D +350 WARM 58 0.192 91.8 10.2% 21.4%vs RHP 402 14.4% 8.3% 19.5% 33

3 Jj Wetherholt 37 D +475 COOL 136 0.138 89.6 8.0% 16.9%vs RHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 7.8% 38

4 Nathan Church 37 D +750 COOL 139 0.129 86.3 8.1% 18.9%vs RHP 384 8.8% 9.1% 7.7% 32

5 Ivan Herrera 33 D +500 HOT 166 0.139 89.2 7.1% 19.1%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 43

6 José Fermín 31 D — WARM 183 0.117 86.5 4.5% 8.0%vs RHP 388 6.1% 10.0% 5.8% 35

7 Masyn Winn 27 D +850 COOL 198 0.080 88.0 5.2% 9.1%vs RHP 390 3.6% 0.0% 5.9% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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