TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ SD

Petco Park is live · 1.16×

HOU @ SD

Petco Park · 8:20p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 7 mph slight_out 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

5:20p

+0 ↑

6:20p

-1 ↑

7:20p

-1 ↑

8:20p

-2 ↑

9:20p

best window is early — 5:20p at +0

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 17 · vs Javier ⟷ Jeremy Peña conv 22 · vs Proxy → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Cristian Javier RHP · HOU

leak 99

1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.49 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill +425 D ●●●○○

2 Manny Machado +330 C ●●○○○

3 Ty France +500 C ●○○○○

FADE SD Bullpen Proxy · ATL

leak 53

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jeremy Peña +525 D ●●●○○

2 Christian Walker +390 C ●●●○○

3 Yainer Diaz +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: Match 14.9%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Christian Walker vs Proxy +390 0.220 · 89.5 · 9.7% 18.2% 16.6% F B O C 51

· SD Manny Machado vs Javier +330 0.211 · 90.7 · 9.2% 7.7% 16.5% F B O C 51

· SD Ty France COOL vs Javier +500 0.231 · 92.2 · 9.2% 0.0% 18.8% F B O C 50

· — Yordan Alvarez ✶ COOL vs Proxy +225 0.309 · 94.4 · 18.0% 0.0% 14.9% F B O C+ 63

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· — Jeremy Peña vs Proxy +525 0.195 · 88.2 · 5.5% 25.0% 19.0% F B O D 43

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Javier Edge +425 0.158 · 90.1 · 9.2% 23.1% 10.4% F B O D 46

· — Yainer Diaz vs Proxy +700 0.150 · 87.6 · 5.4% 20.0% 11.9% F B O D 37

· — Cam Smith vs Proxy +575 0.169 · 89.4 · 11.4% 9.1% 14.0% F B O D 46

· — Isaac Paredes COOL vs Proxy +500 0.164 · 86.2 · 5.6% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 37

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Javier +575 0.099 · 88.3 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 33

· — Jose Altuve COOL vs Proxy +575 0.155 · 85.7 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 31

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Javier Edge +500 0.176 · 87.7 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 40

· — Christian Vazquez COOL vs Proxy — 0.112 · 85.9 · 1.2% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 24

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Javier Edge +525 0.069 · 87.3 · 5.8% 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.6% BRK 22.6% OFF 16.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Manny Machado R

13.2% 6.7% 7.3% 10.7% C 51 +330

Ty France R

10.9% 11.4% 6.9% 10.6% C 50 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L Edge

12.3% 11.3% 5.8% 10.6% D 46 +425

116

Gavin Sheets L Edge

9.7% 4.3% 1.9% 6.9% D 40 +500

169

Xander Bogaerts R

7.1% 2.5% 3.6% 5.6% D 33 +575

195

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

4.7% 3.3% 3.8% 4.3% D 28 +525

Read the columns: no single family leads Javier's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for SD Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Merrill Alvarez Walker Peña Diaz

Legend

attack side — vs Javier fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jeremy Peña +525 · 43

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 5:20p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 7 mph slight_out 86°F open

↑

7 mph · slight_out

83°F

5:20p · peak

↑

7 mph · slight_out

80°F

6:20p

-1

↑

7 mph · slight_out

77°F

7:20p

-1

↑

6 mph · slight_out

74°F

8:20p

-2

↑

5 mph · slight_out

73°F

9:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 86°F, wind 7 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cristian Javier · RHP 1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.49 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado 51 C +330 WARM 44 0.211 90.7 9.2% 27.9%vs RHP 397 18.8% 7.7% 16.5% 36

2 Ty France 50 C +500 COOL 49 0.231 92.2 9.2% 31.7%vs RHP 394 16.1% 0.0% 18.8% 37

3 Jackson Merrill 46 D +425 WARM 78 0.158 90.1 9.2% 18.6%vs RHP 410 14.5% 23.1% 10.4% 40

4 Gavin Sheets 40 D +500 COOL 116 0.176 87.7 7.4% 28.8%vs RHP 397 9.7% 0.0% 8.5% 18

5 Xander Bogaerts 33 D +575 WARM 169 0.099 88.3 6.7% 15.1%vs RHP 396 7.3% 0.0% 8.9% 31

6 Jake Cronenworth 28 D +525 COOL 195 0.069 87.3 5.8% 11.5%vs RHP 389 1.4% 0.0% 5.1% 40

vs SD Bullpen Proxy 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 63 C+ +225 COOL 15 0.309 94.4 18.0% 24.3% 405 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 32

2 Christian Walker 51 C +390 · 68 0.220 89.5 9.7% 20.2% 391 18.2% 18.2% 16.6% 31

3 Cam Smith 46 D +575 · 99 0.169 89.4 11.4% 16.5% 408 12.5% 9.1% 14.0% 27

4 Jeremy Peña 43 D +525 WARM 117 0.195 88.2 5.5% 20.0% 385 15.3% 25.0% 19.0% 35

5 Yainer Diaz 37 D +700 WARM 164 0.150 87.6 5.4% 18.6% 398 10.7% 20.0% 11.9% 29

6 Isaac Paredes 37 D +500 COOL 165 0.164 86.2 5.6% 10.1% 377 11.7% 9.1% 8.3% 40

7 Jose Altuve 31 D +575 COOL 196 0.155 85.7 5.3% 16.5% 379 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 42

8 Christian Vazquez 24 D — COOL 208 0.112 85.9 1.2% 9.4% 377 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 9

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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