TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ TEX

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BAL @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 2:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 7 mph out 99°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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1:35p

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2:35p

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3:35p

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4:35p

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5:35p

the 2:35p window peaks +10

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 35 · vs Povich ⟷ Coby Mayo conv 24 · vs Rocker → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Cade Povich LHP · BAL

leak 100

1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●●

2 Ezequiel Duran +700 C ●●●○○

3 Brandon Nimmo +425 C ●●●○○

FADE Kumar Rocker RHP · TEX

leak 81

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · stingy — thin edge

1 Coby Mayo +625 C ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso +330 C ●●●○○

3 Leody Taveras +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 40.4% · 14D pace 30.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Povich — 0.254 · 91.8 · 9.4% 30.0% 40.4% F B O C+ 65

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Rocker +625 0.220 · 92.6 · 9.2% 25.0% 23.5% F B O C 57

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Povich Edge +700 0.181 · 88.7 · 7.1% 23.1% 16.7% F B O C 50

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Rocker +330 0.207 · 94.0 · 9.7% 16.7% 20.0% F B O C 57

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Povich +425 0.170 · 92.0 · 9.3% 15.4% 17.9% F B O C 51

· TEX Corey Seager vs Povich +350 0.179 · 91.4 · 10.7% 14.3% 17.0% F B O C 54

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Povich Edge +350 0.222 · 89.7 · 8.0% 7.7% 13.6% F B O C 53

· TEX Jake Burger vs Povich Edge +320 0.182 · 90.3 · 9.3% 9.1% 11.7% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· BAL Leody Taveras HOT vs Rocker Edge +700 0.128 · 87.6 · 5.9% 10.0% 13.4% F B O D 39

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Rocker Edge +400 0.174 · 89.6 · 7.2% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 47

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Rocker Edge +575 0.116 · 86.7 · 8.6% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 42

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Povich — 0.135 · 87.6 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 41

· TEX Alejandro Osuna COOL vs Povich — 0.041 · 86.8 · 2.2% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.2% ← leak BRK 38.6% OFF 4.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Coby Mayo R

10.2% 12.1% 16.7% 11.8% C 57 +625

Pete Alonso R

14.5% 8.9% 14.7% 12.9% C 57 +330

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.9% 6.0% 7.4% 7.2% D 47 +400

101

Colton Cowser L Edge

15.3% 10.5% 2.3% 10.5% D 42 +575

121

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.7% 8.2% 0.0% 4.5% D 39 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.2% usage) carries Rocker's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.8% BRK 37.0% OFF 11.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Joc Pederson L

14.3% 12.7% 3.8% 11.4% C+ 65 —

Corey Seager L

13.8% 14.7% 16.7% 14.6% C 54 +350

Wyatt Langford R Edge

5.1% 12.5% 15.8% 8.3% C 53 +350

Jake Burger R Edge

10.2% 13.0% 9.7% 11.1% C 52 +320

Brandon Nimmo L

8.9% 17.4% 8.7% 11.2% C 51 +425

Ezequiel Duran R Edge

8.1% 6.2% 0.0% 6.5% C 50 +700

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

110

Evan Carter L

8.0% 4.8% 0.0% 5.9% D 41 —

188

Alejandro Osuna L

0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.6% D 29 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Povich's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Mayo Alonso Pederson Seager Nimmo Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Povich fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Joc Pederson — · 65

Coby Mayo +625 · 57

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 1:35p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 7 mph out 99°F retractable

↑

7 mph · out

91°F

1:35p

+10

↑

8 mph · out

94°F

2:35p · peak

+10

↑

8 mph · out

97°F

3:35p

+10

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9 mph · slight_out

98°F

4:35p

+10

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10 mph · slight_out

96°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.46× 99°F, wind 7 mph S (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kumar Rocker · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Coby Mayo 57 C +625 WARM 21 0.220 92.6 9.2% 11.8%vs RHP 407 16.3% 25.0% 23.5% 18

2 Pete Alonso 57 C +330 WARM 22 0.207 94.0 9.7% 26.9%vs RHP 401 18.1% 16.7% 20.0% 32

3 Gunnar Henderson 47 D +400 WARM 71 0.174 89.6 7.2% 16.4%vs RHP 390 14.9% 0.0% 12.1% 31

4 Colton Cowser 42 D +575 COOL 101 0.116 86.7 8.6% 17.0%vs RHP 417 11.9% 0.0% 9.2% 12

5 Leody Taveras 39 D +700 HOT 121 0.128 87.6 5.9% 14.6%vs RHP 409 3.8% 10.0% 13.4% 27

vs Cade Povich · LHP 1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 65 C+ — · 9 0.254 91.8 9.4% 26.2% 395 22.2% 30.0% 40.4% 26

2 Corey Seager 54 C +350 WARM 33 0.179 91.4 10.7% 14.3%vs LHP 394 17.2% 14.3% 17.0% 18

3 Wyatt Langford 53 C +350 WARM 36 0.222 89.7 8.0% 23.5%vs LHP 397 16.9% 7.7% 13.6% 32

4 Jake Burger 52 C +320 WARM 39 0.182 90.3 9.3% 27.8%vs LHP 398 15.4% 9.1% 11.7% 27

5 Brandon Nimmo 51 C +425 COOL 41 0.170 92.0 9.3% 20.0%vs LHP 400 10.4% 15.4% 17.9% 35

6 Ezequiel Duran 50 C +700 WARM 50 0.181 88.7 7.1% 14.3%vs LHP 393 13.5% 23.1% 16.7% 36

7 Evan Carter 41 D — COOL 110 0.135 87.6 6.7% 0.0%vs LHP 374 8.5% 0.0% 8.9% 28

8 Alejandro Osuna 29 D — COOL 188 0.041 86.8 2.2% 0.0%vs LHP 364 2.4% 0.0% 8.6% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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