3
HRs allowed
6.8%
HR rate (pool)
18.4%
Overall HR/FB
4.9
FIP
4.75
xFIP
+0.16
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
81
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 81th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
11.4%
Hard-Hit% allowed
61.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.6 EV · 413 ft
max EV allowed 111.7
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR ↑
15D · 1 HR ↑
30D · 1 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Cade Povich.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
45.5%
84.4
35.8°
2
-1.8
Curveball Breaking
22.4%
75.9
4.8°
0
-0.4
Slider Breaking
13.4%
81.9
13.8°
3
+2.3
Changeup Offspeed
10.1%
83.8
9.6°
1
+6.2
Sinker Hard
8.5%
90.1
7.1°
0
+4.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups44
HRs allowed (pool)3
Pool HR rate6.8%
Pool HR/game day0.6
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB18.4% 81
HR/9—
FIP4.9 80
xFIP4.75
FIP − xFIP+0.16 57
Barrel% allowed11.4%
Hard-Hit% allowed61.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Fastball
Hard · 45.5% usage
-1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.4 mph
Avg launch angle35.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches278
Curveball
Breaking · 22.4% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against75.9 mph
Avg launch angle4.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches137
Slider
Breaking · 13.4% usage
+2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.9 mph
Avg launch angle13.8°
HRs allowed3
Pitches82
Changeup
Offspeed · 10.1% usage
+6.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle9.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches62
Sinker
Hard · 8.5% usage
+4.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against90.1 mph
Avg launch angle7.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches52
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Cade Povich.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
3 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.6 EV · 413 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 5 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-18
9
1
111.7
2026-08-31
9
0
105.8
2026-08-09
8
1
107.1
2026-08-04
9
0
107.5
2026-05-07
9
1
103.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Cade Povich isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Cade Povich isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
18
1
6%
9
1
11%
8
1
12%
9
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Cade Povich
How many home runs has Cade Povich allowed this season?
Cade Povich has allowed 3 home runs across 5 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Cade Povich?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Cade Povich include Aaron Judge (1), Alejandro Kirk (1), Brandon Nimmo (1) and 15 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.