1
HRs allowed
11.1%
HR rate (pool)
23.3%
Overall HR/FB
3.77
FIP
4.58
xFIP
-0.81
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
93
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 93th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
66.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 96.3 EV · 386 ft
max EV allowed 103.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 1 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Cade Povich.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
43.1%
86.2
37.2°
2
-1.5
Curveball Breaking
22.7%
75.6
4.6°
0
-1.5
Slider Breaking
16.4%
77.6
7.1°
2
+4.1
Sinker Hard
9.2%
98.0
-0.4°
0
+2.7
Changeup Offspeed
8.6%
86.2
6.5°
0
+5.7
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups9
HRs allowed (pool)1
Pool HR rate11.1%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB23.3% 93
HR/9—
FIP3.77 38
xFIP4.58
FIP − xFIP-0.81 9
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed66.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-17
Fastball
Hard · 43.1% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.2 mph
Avg launch angle37.2°
HRs allowed2
Pitches131
Curveball
Breaking · 22.7% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against75.6 mph
Avg launch angle4.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches69
Slider
Breaking · 16.4% usage
+4.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.6 mph
Avg launch angle7.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches50
Sinker
Hard · 9.2% usage
+2.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against98.0 mph
Avg launch angle-0.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches28
Changeup
Offspeed · 8.6% usage
+5.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.2 mph
Avg launch angle6.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches26
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Cade Povich.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
1 allowed · scored pool
avg 96.3 EV · 386 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 1 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-07
9
1
103.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Cade Povich isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.