TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ MIL

Playable air · 1.09×

MIN @ MIL

American Family Field · 2:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 13 mph out 72°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-4 ↑

1:10p

-5 ↑

2:10p

-6 ↑

3:10p

-7 ↑

4:10p

-7 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at -4

Best of game Royce Lewis conv 24 · vs Misiorowski ⟷ Jackson Chourio conv 23 · vs Prielipp → edge: Jackson Chourio

ATTACK Jacob Misiorowski RHP · MIL

leak 92

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · leakiest side of this game

1 Royce Lewis +425 D ●●●●○

2 Trevor Larnach +625 D ●●●○○

3 Josh Bell +500 D ●●○○○

FADE Connor Prielipp LHP · MIN

leak 4

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Chourio +400 C ●●●●○

2 Jake Bauers +425 C ●●●○○

3 William Contreras +500 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jackson Chourio: Match 23.0% · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jackson Chourio ✶ vs Prielipp Edge +400 0.199 · 92.2 · 10.6% 23.1% 23.0% F B O C 52

· MIL Jake Bauers vs Prielipp +425 0.231 · 92.7 · 10.6% 16.7% 17.8% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Misiorowski +425 0.192 · 90.2 · 6.8% 27.3% 20.4% F B O D 44

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Misiorowski Edge +625 0.167 · 87.5 · 5.3% 25.0% 15.4% F B O D 36

· MIN Josh Bell vs Misiorowski Edge +500 0.172 · 90.0 · 6.0% 20.0% 12.3% F B O D 38

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Misiorowski +950 0.096 · 84.7 · 3.5% 18.2% 8.7% F B O D 25

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Misiorowski Edge +400 0.231 · 92.6 · 6.4% 8.3% 12.9% F B O D 44

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Misiorowski Edge +700 0.173 · 87.6 · 3.6% 9.1% 9.8% F B O D 33

· MIL William Contreras vs Prielipp Edge +500 0.126 · 89.9 · 7.8% 9.1% 7.2% F B O D 36

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Prielipp +700 0.184 · 90.6 · 8.1% 7.7% 7.6% F B O D 42

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Prielipp +625 0.160 · 92.9 · 10.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 42

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.112 · 89.5 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 26

· MIL Joey Ortiz COOL vs Prielipp Edge +700 0.116 · 87.9 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 31

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Prielipp +750 0.138 · 88.8 · 8.6% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 37

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Misiorowski — 0.078 · 87.1 · 2.9% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 76.6% ← leak BRK 21.6% OFF 1.8% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R

15.8% 7.9% 8.7% 12.8% D 44 +425

Kody Clemens L Edge

8.5% 19.7% 10.4% 11.4% D 44 +400

128

Josh Bell S Edge

10.8% 12.9% 5.7% 10.1% D 38 +500

142

Trevor Larnach L Edge

7.9% 9.3% 5.7% 7.9% D 36 +625

168

Brooks Lee S Edge

6.8% 0.0% 1.2% 3.6% D 33 +700

199

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.4% 11.8% 6.2% 6.6% D 26 —

202

Luke Keaschall R

4.4% 2.3% 0.0% 3.3% D 25 +950

207

Austin Martin R

3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% D 21 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (76.6% usage) carries Misiorowski's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 46.2% FB 42.2% OFF 11.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L

13.6% 13.8% 15.6% 14.0% C 54 +425

Jackson Chourio R Edge

15.6% 14.0% 3.4% 13.3% C 52 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

104

Garrett Mitchell L

10.9% 16.8% 6.9% 13.7% D 42 +625

106

Brice Turang L

9.0% 9.8% 1.7% 8.1% D 42 +700

140

Christian Yelich L

10.2% 8.2% 12.5% 9.2% D 37 +750

141

William Contreras R Edge

8.2% 8.1% 0.0% 7.4% D 36 +500

181

Joey Ortiz R Edge

5.9% 3.3% 0.0% 3.9% D 31 +700

Read the columns: no single family leads Prielipp's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lewis Bell Larnach Keaschall Bauers Chourio

Legend

attack side — vs Misiorowski fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jackson Chourio +400 · 52

Royce Lewis +425 · 44

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.91× Wind 13 mph out 72°F retractable

-4

↑

2 mph · in

71°F

1:10p · peak

-5

↑

4 mph · in

73°F

2:10p

-6

↑

6 mph · cross

75°F

3:10p

-7

↑

8 mph · cross

77°F

4:10p

-7

↑

7 mph · in

78°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.09× 72°F, wind 13 mph NW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob Misiorowski · RHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Royce Lewis 44 D +425 WARM 86 0.192 90.2 6.8% 18.0%vs RHP 400 17.6% 27.3% 20.4% 37

2 Kody Clemens 44 D +400 COOL 89 0.231 92.6 6.4% 17.9%vs RHP 390 16.4% 8.3% 12.9% 41

3 Josh Bell 38 D +500 · 128 0.172 90.0 6.0% 19.3%vs RHP 405 11.1% 20.0% 12.3% 32

4 Trevor Larnach 36 D +625 WARM 142 0.167 87.5 5.3% 16.4%vs RHP 397 9.9% 25.0% 15.4% 21

5 Brooks Lee 33 D +700 COOL 168 0.173 87.6 3.6% 19.4%vs RHP 369 14.2% 9.1% 9.8% 31

6 Victor Caratini 26 D — COOL 199 0.112 89.5 4.9% 16.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 15

7 Luke Keaschall 25 D +950 WARM 202 0.096 84.7 3.5% 9.5%vs RHP 373 6.1% 18.2% 8.7% 35

8 Austin Martin 21 D — COOL 207 0.078 87.1 2.9% 3.9%vs RHP 392 1.6% 0.0% 6.8% 24

vs Connor Prielipp · LHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 54 C +425 · 29 0.231 92.7 10.6% 15.8%vs LHP 402 19.6% 16.7% 17.8% 25

2 Jackson Chourio ✶ 52 C +400 WARM 38 0.199 92.2 10.6% 36.4%vs LHP 402 16.9% 23.1% 23.0% 40

3 Garrett Mitchell 42 D +625 COOL 104 0.160 92.9 10.5% 19.5% 415 7.4% 0.0% 8.0% 27

4 Brice Turang 42 D +700 COOL 106 0.184 90.6 8.1% 6.2%vs LHP 407 11.5% 7.7% 7.6% 38

5 Christian Yelich 37 D +750 COOL 140 0.138 88.8 8.6% 20.0%vs LHP 404 6.4% 0.0% 6.9% 29

6 William Contreras 36 D +500 · 141 0.126 89.9 7.8% 8.7%vs LHP 417 9.5% 9.1% 7.2% 36

7 Joey Ortiz 31 D +700 COOL 181 0.116 87.9 5.6% 7.1%vs LHP 395 5.3% 0.0% 7.1% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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