Brad Lord

RHP WSH

16 matchups scored · 2 game days · 9 listed today

HRs allowed

0.0%

HR rate (pool)

17.0%

Overall HR/FB

4.1

FIP

3.73

xFIP

+0.37

FIP − xFIP gap

Leakiest SP today (of 30, by FIP−xFIP)

Leak meter STINGY

LEAKY 79

season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone

Tonight's read

vulnerability percentile · model flags

no model flags today

Vulnerability 79th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge

Where he leaks

quality of contact allowed · season

Barrel% allowed

12.5%

Hard-Hit% allowed

31.2%

Fly-ball rate

—

max EV allowed 113.4

Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.

Recent form

HR allowed by scored game day

7D · 0 HR 15D · 0 HR 30D · 0 HR

Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.

WSH @ NYM 4:10p · Citi Field Park 0.95 Wind 2.0 S out Roof open · 83°F BP FIP 4.83 BP HR 15.3% 4L / 3R listed (+2S) · lineup: confirmed

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × his arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.1% BRK 35.7% OFF 5.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 9 — below the fade line

78 Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.9% 6.1% 6.5% 9.6% D 49

88 Francisco Alvarez R

17.2% 15.7% 17.4% 16.7% D 47

135 Jared Young L Edge

7.4% 7.1% 13.8% 8.5% D 42

150 Carson Benge L Edge

7.3% 9.6% 6.7% 7.7% D 40

153 Marcus Semien R

9.8% 2.2% 7.1% 7.1% D 40

161 Brett Baty L Edge

8.1% 13.2% 4.1% 8.4% D 39

192 A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.2% 9.6% 2.4% 7.4% D 36

195 Bo Bichette R

5.0% 10.3% 0.0% 6.1% D 36

207 Jorge Polanco S Edge

5.5% 5.9% 0.0% 4.3% D 34

No single family leads his damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Arsenal ledger

per-pitch damage against · season

PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage

Fastball Hard 36.0% 82.1 28.1° 2 +0.2

Sinker Hard 23.1% 83.3 8.6° 0 -3.9

Slider Breaking 21.6% 80.6 6.8° 1 +0.2

Sweeper Breaking 14.1% 83.5 19.8° 3 +2.0

Changeup Offspeed 5.2% 77.0 -4.2° 1 +3.4

RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.

Full ledger

pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked

Pool matchups16

HRs allowed (pool)0

Pool HR rate0.0%

Pool HR/game day0.0

Top-15 matchups3

HRs to top-150

Overall HR/FB17.0% 79

HR/9—

FIP4.1 53

xFIP3.73

FIP − xFIP+0.37 69

Barrel% allowed12.5%

Hard-Hit% allowed31.2%

FB%—

K/9—

BB/9—

WHIP—

IP—

Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-15

Fastball

Hard · 36.0% usage

+0.2 run value against / 100 pitches

Avg EV against82.1 mph

Avg launch angle28.1°

HRs allowed2

Pitches401

Sinker

Hard · 23.1% usage

-3.9 run value against / 100 pitches

Avg EV against83.3 mph

Avg launch angle8.6°

HRs allowed0

Pitches257

Slider

Breaking · 21.6% usage

+0.2 run value against / 100 pitches

Avg EV against80.6 mph

Avg launch angle6.8°

HRs allowed1

Pitches241

Sweeper

Breaking · 14.1% usage

+2.0 run value against / 100 pitches

Avg EV against83.5 mph

Avg launch angle19.8°

HRs allowed3

Pitches157

Changeup

Offspeed · 5.2% usage

+3.4 run value against / 100 pitches

Avg EV against77.0 mph

Avg launch angle-4.2°

HRs allowed1

Pitches58

Usage by handedness

what tonight's lefties/righties will see

Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.

Zone map

damage by location

Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.

Pitcher vs. Batter

career PA vs tonight's listed order

BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage

Francisco Lindor S 5 3 0 0 .669 —

Francisco Alvarez R 3 1 1 0 .668 —

Jared Young L 0———— never faced

Carson Benge L 6 6 0 0 .883 —

Marcus Semien R 6 0 0 0 .000 —

Brett Baty L 6 0 0 0 .000 —

A.J. Ewing L 3 0 0 3 .000 —

Bo Bichette R 6 0 0 0 .000 —

Jorge Polanco S 0———— never faced

BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.

HR Log

0 allowed · scored pool

No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.

Game-day log

last 2 scored game days · pool

DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV

2026-08-09 Nationals Park 8 0 104.6

2026-07-01 Fenway Park 8 0 113.4

Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.

Tonight — Citi Field

open-air · game-window conditions

Park Factor 0.951 Wind 2 mph from S Temp 83°F Roof Open

TimeWindTempFIT

4:10p 2 83° +2

5:10p 2 82° +2

6:10p 3 81° +3

7:10p 5 80° +4

8:10p 6 79° +5

Neutral alignment

park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal

Game-window avg wind 4 mph from S

FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.

Fences vs his leak

wall distance · damage overlay

335ft

avg

408ft

avg

330ft

avg

vs LHH → RF

366ft

0 HRs allowed · deep

vs RHH → LF

354ft

0 HRs allowed

Shortest: RF 330 ft

Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.

Venue splits

HRs allowed by venue · pool

VenueFacedHRRate

Fenway Park 8 0 0%

Nationals Park 8 0 0%

HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.

⚾

Six home runs to freedom

Brad Lord's full pitcher profile is waiting

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16 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Common questions about Brad Lord

Is Brad Lord likely to give up a home run tonight?

Brad Lord pitches tonight (WSH @ NYM at Citi Field). This season he has allowed 0 home runs across 2 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.

How many home runs has Brad Lord allowed this season?

Brad Lord has allowed 0 home runs across 2 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.

Which batters have homered off Brad Lord?

In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Brad Lord include Andy Pages (1), Ben Rice (1), Brandon Lowe (1) and 7 more.

Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.