TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ TB

Neutral air · 1.05×

BAL @ TB

Tropicana Field · 12:15p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 26 · vs Peralta ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 33 · vs Rogers → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Freddy Peralta RHP · NYM

leak 69

1.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso +305 C+ ●●●●○

2 Colton Cowser +750 D ●●●○○

3 Gunnar Henderson +500 C ●●●○○

FADE Trevor Rogers LHP · BAL

leak 67

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +255 C+ ●●●●●

2 Taylor Walls — D ●○○○○

3 Richie Palacios — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Rogers Edge +255 0.269 · 92.9 · 9.9% 33.3% 32.9% F B O C+ 66

· — Pete Alonso vs Peralta +305 0.218 · 94.2 · 9.3% 25.0% 27.4% F B O C+ 61

· — Gunnar Henderson HOT vs Peralta Edge +500 0.182 · 89.8 · 6.9% 16.7% 16.9% F B O C 51

· — Coby Mayo COOL vs Peralta +425 0.217 · 92.3 · 8.5% 12.5% 13.2% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· — Colton Cowser HOT vs Peralta Edge +750 0.136 · 87.1 · 8.3% 25.0% 17.1% F B O D 48

· — Leody Taveras vs Peralta Edge +950 0.139 · 87.7 · 5.3% 11.1% 15.1% F B O D 41

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Rogers Edge — 0.082 · 85.4 · 4.1% 9.1% 9.2% F B O D 31

· TB Richie Palacios vs Rogers — 0.115 · 86.2 · 5.4% 9.1% 6.6% F B O D 36

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Rogers +700 0.144 · 90.9 · 8.6% 8.3% 6.8% F B O D 44

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Rogers Edge +500 0.162 · 90.9 · 7.0% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 40

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Rogers Edge +850 0.105 · 85.5 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 32

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Rogers — 0.148 · 87.6 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 39

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Rogers — 0.057 · 83.9 · — 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.7% ← leak OFF 22.1% BRK 13.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R Edge

16.3% 7.7% 12.3% 13.7% C+ 66 +255

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

111

Jonathan Aranda L

9.9% 4.9% 13.7% 9.8% D 44 +700

131

Yandy Diaz R Edge

5.6% 4.1% 10.8% 7.0% D 40 +500

150

Cedric Mullins L

2.9% 8.3% 3.1% 3.6% D 39 —

172

Richie Palacios L

5.4% 3.3% 1.9% 4.1% D 36 —

189

Nick Fortes R Edge

2.9% 0.0% 1.8% 2.3% D 32 +850

192

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% D 31 —

210

Chandler Simpson L

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 19 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.7% usage) carries Rogers's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.0% ← leak BRK 23.9% OFF 21.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Alonso R

15.5% 9.5% 16.2% 13.9% C+ 61 +305

Coby Mayo R

9.5% 12.7% 15.4% 11.4% C 54 +425

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

8.1% 6.6% 7.9% 7.6% C 51 +500

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Colton Cowser L Edge

15.0% 12.8% 2.2% 11.0% D 48 +750

125

Leody Taveras S Edge

5.1% 7.4% 0.0% 4.5% D 41 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.0% usage) carries Peralta's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Alonso Henderson Cowser Taveras

Legend

attack side — vs Peralta fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Junior Caminero +255 · 66

Pete Alonso +305 · 61

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 12:15p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.05× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Trevor Rogers · LHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 66 C+ +255 · 5 0.269 92.9 9.9% 35.0%vs LHP 413 26.9% 33.3% 32.9% 39

2 Jonathan Aranda 44 D +700 COOL 111 0.144 90.9 8.6% 4.5%vs LHP 386 11.4% 8.3% 6.8% 44

3 Yandy Diaz 40 D +500 · 131 0.162 90.9 7.0% 21.2%vs LHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 47

4 Cedric Mullins 39 D — COOL 150 0.148 87.6 5.1% 0.0%vs LHP 389 12.4% 0.0% 6.4% 30

5 Richie Palacios 36 D — · 172 0.115 86.2 5.4% 7.9% 398 4.5% 9.1% 6.6% 22

6 Nick Fortes 32 D +850 COOL 189 0.105 85.5 4.1% 5.6%vs LHP 396 4.5% 0.0% 7.2% 11

7 Taylor Walls 31 D — COOL 192 0.082 85.4 4.1% 3.9%vs LHP 383 1.0% 9.1% 9.2% 31

8 Chandler Simpson 19 D — COOL 210 0.057 83.9 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 48

vs Freddy Peralta · RHP 1.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 61 C+ +305 WARM 15 0.218 94.2 9.3% 27.4%vs RHP 402 19.7% 25.0% 27.4% 36

2 Coby Mayo 54 C +425 COOL 47 0.217 92.3 8.5% 11.1%vs RHP 407 15.4% 12.5% 13.2% 23

3 Gunnar Henderson 51 C +500 HOT 56 0.182 89.8 6.9% 18.2%vs RHP 391 15.8% 16.7% 16.9% 32

4 Colton Cowser 48 D +750 HOT 74 0.136 87.1 8.3% 19.6%vs RHP 419 14.5% 25.0% 17.1% 16

5 Leody Taveras 41 D +950 · 125 0.139 87.7 5.3% 14.6%vs RHP 405 4.7% 11.1% 15.1% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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