TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.20×

COL @ SF

Oracle Park · 4:05p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 10 mph out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

1:05p

+8 ↑

2:05p

+8 ↑

3:05p

+6 ↑

4:05p

+6 ↑

5:05p

best window is early — 2:05p at +8

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 16 · vs Hughes ⟷ Mickey Moniak conv 20 · vs Tidwell → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Gabriel Hughes RHP · COL

leak 13

0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.63 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +475 D ●●○○○

2 Bryce Eldridge +475 D ●●○○○

3 Drew Gilbert +950 D ●●○○○

FADE Blade Tidwell RHP · SF

leak 3

0.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mickey Moniak +425 C ●●●○○

2 Hunter Goodman — C ●●○○○

3 Willi Castro +750 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 12.6% · 14D pace 12.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Tidwell Edge +425 0.275 · 89.4 · 8.8% 18.2% 22.0% F B O C 50

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Tidwell — 0.290 · 90.6 · 10.6% 12.5% 12.6% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· SF Rafael Devers COOL vs Hughes Edge +475 0.222 · 92.5 · 7.6% 16.7% 15.7% F B O D 46

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Hughes Edge +475 0.192 · 92.0 · 8.0% 18.2% 13.2% F B O D 43

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Hughes Edge +950 0.124 · 86.2 · 4.5% 20.0% 9.3% F B O D 29

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Hughes Edge — 0.143 · 86.9 · 3.7% 16.7% 8.9% F B O D 29

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Hughes +500 0.189 · 87.2 · 6.6% 9.1% 9.4% F B O D 38

· COL Willi Castro COOL vs Tidwell Edge +750 0.157 · 87.6 · 7.6% 9.1% 8.6% F B O D 35

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Tidwell +850 0.125 · 87.3 · 6.6% 10.0% 5.2% F B O D 30

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Tidwell Edge +950 0.203 · 84.9 · 5.8% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 36

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Tidwell Edge +850 0.159 · 83.9 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 30

· COL Troy Johnston vs Tidwell Edge — 0.111 · 89.6 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 47.6% FB 46.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Hunter Goodman R

15.7% 18.9% 16.7% C 54 —

Mickey Moniak L Edge

21.7% 10.3% 10.9% C 50 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

173

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

1.3% 6.1% 5.0% D 36 +950

178

Willi Castro S Edge

5.8% 11.3% 8.5% D 35 +750

196

Tj Rumfield L Edge

1.8% 5.3% 4.3% D 30 +850

197

Ezequiel Tovar R

6.7% 6.1% 6.5% D 30 +850

208

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.4% 2.5% 2.2% D 24 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Tidwell's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 62.2% ← leak BRK 28.1% OFF 9.7% Overall Score

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Rafael Devers L Edge

12.2% 9.8% 8.1% 10.8% D 46 +475

121

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

12.9% 7.3% 16.1% 12.2% D 43 +475

155

Willy Adames R

7.5% 8.4% 13.8% 8.3% D 38 +500

201

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.6% D 29 —

203

Drew Gilbert L Edge

4.7% 4.3% 0.0% 3.8% D 29 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.2% usage) carries Hughes's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Devers Eldridge Gilbert

Legend

attack side — vs Hughes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 0.85× Wind 10 mph out 77°F open

↑

10 mph · out

76°F

1:05p

↑

11 mph · out

80°F

2:05p · peak

↑

11 mph · out

79°F

3:05p

↑

10 mph · out

78°F

4:05p

↑

10 mph · out

77°F

5:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 77°F, wind 10 mph W (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Blade Tidwell · RHP 0.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.22 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 54 C — COOL 49 0.290 90.6 10.6% 39.7%vs RHP 410 23.8% 12.5% 12.6% 22

2 Mickey Moniak 50 C +425 WARM 64 0.275 89.4 8.8% 23.9%vs RHP 417 17.1% 18.2% 22.0% 27

3 Jake Mccarthy 36 D +950 COOL 173 0.203 84.9 5.8% 15.8%vs RHP 416 12.5% 0.0% 13.7% 49

4 Willi Castro 35 D +750 COOL 178 0.157 87.6 7.6% 16.7%vs RHP 411 10.8% 9.1% 8.6% 34

5 Tj Rumfield 30 D +850 COOL 196 0.159 83.9 5.5% 15.2%vs RHP 410 6.2% 0.0% 8.6% 36

6 Ezequiel Tovar 30 D +850 COOL 197 0.125 87.3 6.6% 15.0%vs RHP 408 7.5% 10.0% 5.2% 27

7 Troy Johnston 24 D — WARM 208 0.111 89.6 3.9% 6.8%vs RHP 415 1.2% 0.0% 6.2% 14

vs Gabriel Hughes · RHP 0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.63 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 46 D +475 COOL 90 0.222 92.5 7.6% 26.7%vs RHP 398 17.4% 16.7% 15.7% 31

2 Bryce Eldridge 43 D +475 · 121 0.192 92.0 8.0% 21.3%vs RHP 399 19.6% 18.2% 13.2% 30

3 Willy Adames 38 D +500 COOL 155 0.189 87.2 6.6% 20.2%vs RHP 387 14.4% 9.1% 9.4% 25

4 Jung Hoo Lee 29 D — WARM 201 0.143 86.9 3.7% 13.1%vs RHP 382 6.2% 16.7% 8.9% 45

5 Drew Gilbert 29 D +950 WARM 203 0.124 86.2 4.5% 12.5%vs RHP 399 5.5% 20.0% 9.3% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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