TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.50×

MIA @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 1:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 10 mph out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

1:40p

+9 ↑

2:40p

+9 ↑

3:40p

+7 ↑

4:40p

+7 ↑

5:40p

best window is early — 1:40p at +12

Best of game Tyler Stephenson conv 28 · vs Pérez ⟷ Owen Caissie conv 12 · vs Lodolo → edge: Sal Stewart

ATTACK Eury Pérez RHP · MIA

leak 93

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tyler Stephenson +500 C ●●●●○

2 Sal Stewart +350 C+ ●●●●○

3 Elly De La Cruz +320 C ●●●○○

FADE Nick Lodolo LHP · CIN

leak 64

1.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.97 · stingy — thin edge

1 Owen Caissie — C ●●○○○

2 Heriberto Hernández +330 C ●●○○○

3 Jakob Marsee — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Sal Stewart: 13.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Pérez +500 0.166 · 91.4 · 10.7% 33.3% 22.1% F B O C 54

· CIN Sal Stewart ✶ COOL vs Pérez +350 0.219 · 90.2 · 11.2% 25.0% 29.6% F B O C+ 61

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Pérez Edge +320 0.218 · 93.6 · 11.2% 16.7% 17.2% F B O C 59

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Pérez +370 0.215 · 88.7 · 10.5% 0.0% 31.2% F B O C 52

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Lodolo — 0.205 · 91.1 · 11.4% 9.1% 14.9% F B O C 59

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Lodolo Edge +330 0.223 · 91.7 · 10.2% 0.0% 22.8% F B O C 55

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Pérez Edge +370 0.225 · 88.8 · 9.7% 0.0% 14.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Lodolo — 0.101 · 86.8 · 5.3% 10.0% 8.1% F B O D 40

· CIN Matt Mclain vs Pérez +625 0.144 · 88.0 · 9.5% 0.0% 16.7% F B O D 44

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Lodolo Edge +950 0.103 · 87.0 · 5.6% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 39

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Lodolo Edge +850 0.132 · 86.9 · 4.2% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 40

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Lodolo Edge +575 0.146 · 89.1 · 7.2% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 45

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Pérez Edge — 0.081 · 87.4 · 4.8% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.2% ← leak BRK 24.6% OFF 23.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Owen Caissie L

17.3% 7.5% 18.8% 15.0% C 59 —

Heriberto Hernández R Edge

11.5% 12.3% 16.7% 12.2% C 55 +330

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Otto Lopez R Edge

8.8% 4.0% 1.6% 6.0% D 45 +575

135

Javier Sanoja R Edge

2.5% 2.2% 0.0% 2.1% D 40 +850

137

Jakob Marsee L

2.9% 1.9% 7.9% 3.3% D 40 —

144

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.4% 2.4% 2.8% 3.6% D 39 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.2% usage) carries Lodolo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.6% ← leak BRK 35.2% OFF 9.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Sal Stewart R

16.7% 10.0% 9.7% 13.5% C+ 61 +350

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

17.7% 9.8% 4.9% 13.2% C 59 +320

Tyler Stephenson R

15.4% 7.8% 5.6% 12.3% C 54 +500

Eugenio Suarez R

14.1% 7.5% 5.3% 11.9% C 52 +370

Jj Bleday L Edge

12.3% 7.1% 5.6% 9.7% C 52 +370

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

102

Matt Mclain R

11.7% 9.2% 0.0% 9.8% D 44 +625

183

Tj Friedl L Edge

2.7% 4.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.6% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stewart Cruz Stephenson Suarez

Legend

attack side — vs Pérez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Tyler Stephenson +500 · 54

Sal Stewart +350 · 61

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 10 mph out 75°F open

+12

↑

10 mph · out

75°F

1:40p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

76°F

2:40p

↑

8 mph · out

77°F

3:40p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

78°F

4:40p

↑

6 mph · out

79°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.50× 75°F, wind 10 mph W (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Lodolo · LHP 1.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.97 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 59 C — COOL 24 0.205 91.1 11.4% 23.2% 398 14.9% 9.1% 14.9% 20

2 Heriberto Hernández 55 C +330 · 35 0.223 91.7 10.2% 45.0%vs LHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 22.8% 22

3 Otto Lopez 45 D +575 COOL 96 0.146 89.1 7.2% 8.0%vs LHP 402 6.7% 0.0% 10.0% 47

4 Javier Sanoja 40 D +850 WARM 135 0.132 86.9 4.2% 17.6%vs LHP 383 5.0% 0.0% 10.4% 30

5 Jakob Marsee 40 D — COOL 137 0.101 86.8 5.3% 11.1%vs LHP 380 7.1% 10.0% 8.1% 33

6 Xavier Edwards 39 D +950 COOL 144 0.103 87.0 5.6% 22.2%vs LHP 396 4.2% 0.0% 10.9% 38

vs Eury Pérez · RHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart ✶ 61 C+ +350 COOL 12 0.219 90.2 11.2% 24.4%vs RHP 396 16.8% 25.0% 29.6% 37

2 Elly De La Cruz 59 C +320 COOL 23 0.218 93.6 11.2% 21.1%vs RHP 396 16.7% 16.7% 17.2% 33

3 Tyler Stephenson 54 C +500 WARM 43 0.166 91.4 10.7% 20.8%vs RHP 392 9.5% 33.3% 22.1% 26

4 Eugenio Suarez 52 C +370 WARM 51 0.215 88.7 10.5% 28.6%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 31.2% 24

5 Jj Bleday 52 C +370 COOL 52 0.225 88.8 9.7% 22.7%vs RHP 388 20.0% 0.0% 14.8% 30

6 Matt Mclain 44 D +625 WARM 102 0.144 88.0 9.5% 10.5%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 26

7 Tj Friedl 33 D — COOL 183 0.081 87.4 4.8% 7.1%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 3

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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