TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.50×

MIL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 4:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 9 mph out 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

1:10p

+13 ↑

2:10p

+12 ↑

3:10p

+12 ↑

4:10p

+12 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 2:10p at +13

Best of game Shohei Ohtani conv 24 · vs Henderson ⟷ Jackson Chourio conv 28 · vs Skubal → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Logan Henderson RHP · MIL

leak 91

1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · leakiest side of this game

1 Shohei Ohtani +255 C+ ●●●●○

2 Max Muncy +290 C+ ●●●○○

3 Andy Pages +350 C ●●○○○

FADE Tarik Skubal LHP · DET

leak 48

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Chourio +400 C ●●●●○

2 Jake Bauers +500 C ●●○○○

3 William Contreras +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: 16.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Jackson Chourio vs Skubal Edge +400 0.194 · 91.9 · 10.1% 28.6% 26.7% F B O C 56

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ COOL vs Henderson Edge +255 0.250 · 93.4 · 11.9% 15.4% 33.1% F B O C+ 65

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Henderson Edge +290 0.239 · 90.3 · 10.9% 12.5% 20.4% F B O C+ 60

· LAD Andy Pages vs Henderson +350 0.186 · 89.0 · 8.2% 15.4% 15.1% F B O C 50

· — Jake Bauers vs Skubal +500 0.226 · 92.6 · 10.2% 7.7% 21.1% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Henderson +475 0.175 · 90.5 · 8.1% 15.4% 13.9% F B O D 48

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Henderson Edge +500 0.138 · 88.8 · 7.3% 16.7% 11.3% F B O D 43

· — William Contreras HOT vs Skubal Edge +575 0.120 · 89.9 · 7.7% 15.4% 8.0% F B O D 40

· — Christian Yelich vs Skubal +750 0.140 · 88.8 · 8.5% 9.1% 13.1% F B O D 42

· — Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Skubal — 0.150 · 92.6 · 9.8% 0.0% 14.0% F B O D 45

· — Brice Turang COOL vs Skubal — 0.180 · 90.5 · 7.8% 0.0% 14.0% F B O D 45

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Henderson Edge +475 0.165 · 89.8 · 8.8% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 46

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Henderson +400 0.151 · 89.6 · 8.7% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 42

· — David Hamilton COOL vs Skubal — 0.086 · 86.6 · 5.1% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.7% ← leak OFF 32.2% BRK 3.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

20.5% 17.0% 10.0% 16.6% C+ 65 +255

Max Muncy L Edge

15.8% 7.6% 14.8% 13.5% C+ 60 +290

Andy Pages R

7.4% 8.6% 7.8% 7.6% C 50 +350

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Mookie Betts R

9.5% 6.1% 3.1% 7.7% D 48 +475

Freddie Freeman L Edge

9.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.9% D 46 +475

117

Kyle Tucker L Edge

9.1% 1.4% 3.1% 6.2% D 43 +500

122

Teoscar Hernandez R

8.5% 6.9% 11.4% 8.9% D 42 +400

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.7% usage) carries Henderson's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.2% ← leak OFF 25.5% BRK 18.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jackson Chourio R Edge

13.8% 3.2% 15.0% 12.9% C 56 +400

Jake Bauers L

14.3% 14.7% 12.3% 13.8% C 56 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Garrett Mitchell L

15.7% 6.2% 10.6% 12.9% D 45 —

Brice Turang L

9.4% 1.7% 9.8% 8.1% D 45 —

124

Christian Yelich L

9.2% 11.5% 9.8% 9.6% D 42 +750

138

William Contreras R Edge

8.2% 0.0% 9.0% 7.7% D 40 +575

186

David Hamilton L

3.1% 0.0% 6.8% 3.6% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.2% usage) carries Skubal's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Muncy Pages Betts Tucker Chourio Bauers

Legend

attack side — vs Henderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jackson Chourio +400 · 56

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 9 mph out 86°F open

+12

↑

9 mph · out

84°F

1:10p

+13

↑

10 mph · out

87°F

2:10p · peak

+12

↑

9 mph · out

86°F

3:10p

+12

↑

9 mph · out

86°F

4:10p

+12

↑

8 mph · out

85°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.50× 86°F, wind 9 mph SW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Henderson · RHP 1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 65 C+ +255 COOL 6 0.250 93.4 11.9% 23.4%vs RHP 403 19.3% 15.4% 33.1% 36

2 Max Muncy 60 C+ +290 COOL 18 0.239 90.3 10.9% 25.9%vs RHP 412 18.3% 12.5% 20.4% 39

3 Andy Pages 50 C +350 · 63 0.186 89.0 8.2% 19.7%vs RHP 391 14.0% 15.4% 15.1% 42

4 Mookie Betts 48 D +475 · 76 0.175 90.5 8.1% 17.9%vs RHP 390 11.1% 15.4% 13.9% 42

5 Freddie Freeman 46 D +475 COOL 86 0.165 89.8 8.8% 15.9%vs RHP 398 10.8% 0.0% 12.1% 35

6 Kyle Tucker 43 D +500 COOL 117 0.138 88.8 7.3% 11.7%vs RHP 392 7.8% 16.7% 11.3% 34

7 Teoscar Hernandez 42 D +400 WARM 122 0.151 89.6 8.7% 18.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 28

vs Tarik Skubal · LHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jackson Chourio 56 C +400 WARM 28 0.194 91.9 10.1% 38.5%vs LHP 401 16.7% 28.6% 26.7% 34

2 Jake Bauers 56 C +500 · 30 0.226 92.6 10.2% 18.2%vs LHP 401 19.2% 7.7% 21.1% 28

3 Garrett Mitchell 45 D — COOL 92 0.150 92.6 9.8% 18.2% 415 7.1% 0.0% 14.0% 26

4 Brice Turang 45 D — COOL 93 0.180 90.5 7.8% 5.9%vs LHP 407 10.9% 0.0% 14.0% 27

5 Christian Yelich 42 D +750 · 124 0.140 88.8 8.5% 18.2%vs LHP 401 7.2% 9.1% 13.1% 27

6 William Contreras 40 D +575 HOT 138 0.120 89.9 7.7% 8.0%vs LHP 417 9.8% 15.4% 8.0% 38

7 David Hamilton 32 D — COOL 186 0.086 86.6 5.1% 5.0% 383 3.7% 0.0% 10.0% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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