TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ PIT

PNC Park is live · 1.25×

BOS @ PIT

PNC Park · 1:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 9 mph out 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

1:35p

+7 ↑

2:35p

+6 ↑

3:35p

+6 ↑

4:35p

+6 ↑

5:35p

best window is early — 2:35p at +7

Best of game Wilyer Abreu conv 32 · vs Bachar ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 24 · vs Sandoval → edge: Wilyer Abreu

ATTACK Lake Bachar RHP · MIA

leak 88

1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.60 · leakiest side of this game

1 Wilyer Abreu +390 C ●●●●●

2 Jarren Duran +525 D ●●●○○

3 Ceddanne Rafaela +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Patrick Sandoval LHP · BOS

leak 87

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +625 C ●●●●○

2 Jared Triolo — D ●○○○○

3 Jake Mangum — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Wilyer Abreu: Match 22.7% · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Wilyer Abreu ✶ HOT vs Bachar Edge +390 0.207 · 89.9 · 10.9% 41.7% 22.7% F B O C 59

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Sandoval +625 0.230 · 91.1 · 8.3% 23.1% 24.9% F B O C 54

· — Willson Contreras COOL vs Bachar +500 0.246 · 90.1 · 11.6% 9.1% 18.7% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· — Jarren Duran vs Bachar Edge +525 0.150 · 89.7 · 9.5% 23.1% 18.9% F B O D 48

· — Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Bachar +750 0.179 · 86.3 · 7.2% 16.7% 11.8% F B O D 49

· — Caleb Durbin vs Bachar +950 0.155 · 83.8 · 5.3% 16.7% 10.8% F B O D 40

· PIT Jared Triolo vs Sandoval Edge — 0.074 · 87.7 · 3.9% 12.5% 6.1% F B O D 28

· — Masataka Yoshida HOT vs Bachar Edge — 0.123 · 88.7 · 5.7% 9.1% 7.7% F B O D 37

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Sandoval Edge — 0.093 · 85.4 · 3.2% 7.7% 6.3% F B O D 28

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Sandoval — 0.156 · 86.8 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 38

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Sandoval Edge +700 0.171 · 90.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 43

· — Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Bachar +850 0.173 · 88.4 · 8.6% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 44

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Sandoval Edge +1000 0.092 · 86.2 · 3.9% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 40.8% ← leak BRK 28.5% OFF 25.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Brandon Lowe L

16.7% 8.2% 8.8% 12.5% C 54 +625

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

120

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.0% 13.8% 7.2% 10.9% D 43 +700

153

Spencer Horwitz L

7.4% 6.6% 10.7% 7.6% D 38 —

204

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% D 28 —

205

Jared Triolo R Edge

3.3% 2.7% 0.0% 2.8% D 28 —

206

Nick Gonzales R Edge

2.3% 4.7% 0.0% 2.8% D 28 +1000

Read the columns: the fastball family (40.8% usage) carries Sandoval's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 56.6% FB 34.1% OFF 9.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Willson Contreras R

15.9% 11.9% 21.2% 14.1% C 59 +500

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

15.3% 11.7% 11.7% 12.6% C 59 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ceddanne Rafaela R

5.9% 3.6% 12.5% 5.5% D 49 +750

Jarren Duran L Edge

7.1% 11.9% 7.6% 9.7% D 48 +525

108

Andruw Monasterio R

7.8% 7.6% 14.3% 8.2% D 44 +850

133

Caleb Durbin R

2.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0% D 40 +950

161

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

0.0% 4.2% 4.5% 3.5% D 37 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Bachar's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Contreras Abreu Rafaela Duran Durbin

Legend

attack side — vs Bachar fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Wilyer Abreu +390 · 59

Brandon Lowe +625 · 54

Jarren Duran +525 · 48

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 9 mph out 78°F open

↑

9 mph · out

77°F

1:35p

↑

9 mph · out

78°F

2:35p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

78°F

3:35p

↑

9 mph · out

79°F

4:35p

↑

9 mph · out

79°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.25× 78°F, wind 9 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Patrick Sandoval · LHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 54 C +625 WARM 41 0.230 91.1 8.3% 16.1%vs LHP 392 17.0% 23.1% 24.9% 26

2 Bryan Reynolds 43 D +700 COOL 120 0.171 90.6 7.8% 18.8%vs LHP 409 11.6% 0.0% 9.7% 33

3 Spencer Horwitz 38 D — COOL 153 0.156 86.8 6.4% 14.3%vs LHP 395 10.4% 0.0% 9.8% 31

4 Jake Mangum 28 D — WARM 204 0.093 85.4 3.2% 7.1%vs LHP 393 5.0% 7.7% 6.3% 35

5 Jared Triolo 28 D — WARM 205 0.074 87.7 3.9% 0.0%vs LHP 407 1.6% 12.5% 6.1% 18

6 Nick Gonzales 28 D +1000 COOL 206 0.092 86.2 3.9% 3.6%vs LHP 397 6.8% 0.0% 5.9% 36

vs Lake Bachar · RHP 1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.60 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 59 C +500 COOL 21 0.246 90.1 11.6% 30.9%vs RHP 406 19.5% 9.1% 18.7% 25

2 Wilyer Abreu ✶ 59 C +390 HOT 25 0.207 89.9 10.9% 17.0%vs RHP 406 16.8% 41.7% 22.7% 39

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 49 D +750 COOL 72 0.179 86.3 7.2% 17.6%vs RHP 382 13.6% 16.7% 11.8% 43

4 Jarren Duran 48 D +525 · 73 0.150 89.7 9.5% 29.4%vs RHP 399 12.9% 23.1% 18.9% 35

5 Andruw Monasterio 44 D +850 COOL 108 0.173 88.4 8.6% 2.6%vs RHP 390 12.8% 0.0% 9.0% 39

6 Caleb Durbin 40 D +950 WARM 133 0.155 83.8 5.3% 21.4%vs RHP 376 9.6% 16.7% 10.8% 40

7 Masataka Yoshida 37 D — HOT 161 0.123 88.7 5.7% 9.8%vs RHP 368 9.7% 9.1% 7.7% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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