TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ CLE

Progressive Field is live · 1.19×

SD @ CLE

Progressive Field · 1:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 8 mph slight_out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

1:40p

+3 ↑

2:40p

+3 ↑

3:40p

+3 ↑

4:40p

+4 ↑

5:40p

conditions build late — the 5:40p window peaks +4

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 26 · vs Bibee ⟷ Rhys Hoskins conv 24 · vs Mize → edge: Jackson Merrill

ATTACK Tanner Bibee RHP · CLE

leak 95

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill +475 C ●●●●○

2 Xander Bogaerts +750 D ●●○○○

3 Gavin Sheets +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Casey Mize RHP · DET

leak 69

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.87 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins — C ●●●●○

2 Brayan Rocchio +950 D ●○○○○

3 Steven Kwan — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jackson Merrill: 11.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Jackson Merrill ✶ vs Bibee Edge +475 0.174 · 90.5 · 9.8% 30.8% 21.9% F B O C 54

· — Rhys Hoskins vs Mize — 0.200 · 89.3 · 10.0% 25.0% 22.7% F B O C 50

· SD Ty France COOL vs Bibee +500 0.227 · 92.3 · 9.4% 7.7% 15.8% F B O C 54

· SD Manny Machado vs Bibee +500 0.199 · 90.8 · 9.2% 0.0% 13.6% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· SD Xander Bogaerts HOT vs Bibee +750 0.110 · 88.6 · 7.2% 15.4% 10.4% F B O D 40

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Bibee Edge +525 0.177 · 87.6 · 7.8% 8.3% 15.6% F B O D 46

· — Brayan Rocchio vs Mize Edge +950 0.123 · 86.7 · 5.1% 9.1% 6.3% F B O D 32

· — Steven Kwan COOL vs Mize Edge — 0.061 · 83.6 · 1.5% 9.1% 5.4% F B O D 21

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Bibee — 0.145 · 92.4 · 9.9% 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 43

· — Angel Martinez vs Mize Edge — 0.191 · 87.4 · 8.0% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 39

· — Chase Delauter COOL vs Mize Edge +525 0.158 · 91.2 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 37

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Bibee Edge +850 0.066 · 87.4 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 31

· — Travis Bazzana vs Mize Edge +850 0.140 · 88.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 35

· — Jose Ramirez COOL vs Mize Edge +500 0.146 · 89.2 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 33

· SD Freddy Fermin vs Bibee — 0.123 · 87.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 69.8% ← leak BRK 15.5% OFF 14.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Jackson Merrill L Edge

13.6% 11.1% 6.8% 11.5% C 54 +475

Ty France R

10.5% 11.3% 10.0% 10.7% C 54 +500

Manny Machado R

12.3% 6.5% 9.5% 10.3% C 52 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Gavin Sheets L Edge

10.1% 6.1% 1.7% 7.5% D 46 +525

113

Fernando Tatis R

10.0% 13.6% 16.7% 11.7% D 43 —

134

Xander Bogaerts R

6.8% 3.6% 3.4% 5.7% D 40 +750

163

Freddy Fermin R

3.1% 5.6% 10.0% 4.2% D 37 —

193

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

4.3% 2.9% 3.6% 3.9% D 31 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (69.8% usage) carries Bibee's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.1% BRK 31.2% OFF 23.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rhys Hoskins R

11.1% 17.5% 13.3% 12.9% C 50 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

141

Angel Martinez S Edge

8.4% 14.9% 3.0% 8.2% D 39 —

157

Chase Delauter L Edge

8.3% 6.6% 1.6% 6.6% D 37 +525

177

Travis Bazzana L Edge

4.4% 3.6% 3.1% 4.1% D 35 +850

182

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 33 +500

190

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

4.0% 4.5% 1.1% 3.4% D 32 +950

209

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 21 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Mize's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Merrill Hoskins

Legend

attack side — vs Bibee fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jackson Merrill +475 · 54

Rhys Hoskins — · 50

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 8 mph slight_out 81°F open

↑

8 mph · slight_out

78°F

1:40p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

78°F

2:40p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

78°F

3:40p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

78°F

4:40p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

78°F

5:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 81°F, wind 8 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tanner Bibee · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jackson Merrill ✶ 54 C +475 WARM 44 0.174 90.5 9.8% 20.5%vs RHP 412 15.5% 30.8% 21.9% 40

2 Ty France 54 C +500 COOL 46 0.227 92.3 9.4% 29.2%vs RHP 392 16.2% 7.7% 15.8% 37

3 Manny Machado 52 C +500 WARM 55 0.199 90.8 9.2% 27.1%vs RHP 397 17.8% 0.0% 13.6% 41

4 Gavin Sheets 46 D +525 WARM 84 0.177 87.6 7.8% 30.2%vs RHP 397 10.2% 8.3% 15.6% 19

5 Fernando Tatis 43 D — WARM 113 0.145 92.4 9.9% 13.9%vs RHP 413 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 37

6 Xander Bogaerts 40 D +750 HOT 134 0.110 88.6 7.2% 17.2%vs RHP 400 8.7% 15.4% 10.4% 31

7 Freddy Fermin 37 D — WARM 163 0.123 87.6 5.9% 6.7%vs RHP 382 3.0% 0.0% 6.8% 13

8 Jake Cronenworth 31 D +850 COOL 193 0.066 87.4 5.6% 10.0%vs RHP 389 1.3% 0.0% 8.5% 40

vs Casey Mize · RHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.87 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 50 C — WARM 60 0.200 89.3 10.0% 22.6%vs RHP 389 14.6% 25.0% 22.7% 12

2 Angel Martinez 39 D — WARM 141 0.191 87.4 8.0% 27.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 25

3 Chase Delauter 37 D +525 COOL 157 0.158 91.2 7.1% 25.0%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 41

4 Travis Bazzana 35 D +850 · 177 0.140 88.3 5.9% 17.6%vs RHP 396 10.3% 0.0% 7.3% 23

5 Jose Ramirez 33 D +500 COOL 182 0.146 89.2 6.4% 10.8%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 27

6 Brayan Rocchio 32 D +950 WARM 190 0.123 86.7 5.1% 12.5%vs RHP 384 7.8% 9.1% 6.3% 35

7 Steven Kwan 21 D — COOL 209 0.061 83.6 1.5% 3.2%vs RHP 372 1.8% 9.1% 5.4% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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