TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ DET

Playable air · 1.07×

CWS @ DET

Comerica Park · 1:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 8 mph slight_out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

1:40p

+1 ↑

2:40p

+3 ↑

3:40p

+5 ↑

4:40p

+5 ↑

5:40p

conditions build late — the 4:40p window peaks +5

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 29 · vs Anderson ⟷ Dillon Dingler conv 26 · vs Burke → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Drew Anderson RHP · DET

leak 70

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.43 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami +350 C+ ●●●●●

2 Miguel Vargas +390 C+ ●●●●○

3 Chase Meidroth — D ●●●○○

FADE Sean Burke RHP · CWS

leak 60

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dillon Dingler +500 C ●●●●○

2 Gleyber Torres +750 D ●●○○○

3 Spencer Torkelson +390 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 31.7% · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Anderson Edge +350 0.304 · 94.2 · 13.1% 27.3% 31.7% F B O C+ 68

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Anderson +390 0.247 · 90.7 · 10.8% 27.3% 29.8% F B O C+ 62

· DET Dillon Dingler vs Burke +500 0.242 · 88.9 · 9.3% 25.0% 26.8% F B O C 56

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Anderson Edge +390 0.220 · 88.9 · 10.0% 8.3% 15.0% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Anderson — 0.140 · 87.8 · 6.1% 20.0% 17.2% F B O D 40

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Anderson Edge +625 0.177 · 88.9 · 8.4% 16.7% 10.8% F B O D 46

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Anderson Edge +850 0.156 · 87.3 · 6.4% 16.7% 8.8% F B O D 40

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs Burke +750 0.133 · 86.0 · 7.7% 16.7% 8.2% F B O D 39

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Anderson Edge +850 0.144 · 89.2 · 5.8% 9.1% 8.6% F B O D 37

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Burke +390 0.194 · 89.4 · 10.2% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 47

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Burke Edge +700 0.146 · 88.7 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 37

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Anderson Edge +850 0.129 · 87.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 37

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Burke Edge +700 0.138 · 87.9 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 38

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Burke Edge +950 0.105 · 85.7 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 40.3% OFF 30.6% BRK 27.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

22.9% 17.4% 18.8% 20.8% C+ 68 +350

Miguel Vargas R

16.0% 13.9% 11.3% 14.4% C+ 62 +390

Colson Montgomery L Edge

12.1% 15.0% 11.3% 12.3% C 54 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.3% 5.6% 4.5% 8.7% D 46 +625

139

Chase Meidroth R

4.3% 4.1% 5.9% 4.7% D 40 —

140

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.2% 0.0% 5.2% 5.0% D 40 +850

164

Braden Montgomery S Edge

5.6% 2.3% 3.4% 4.1% D 37 +850

166

Sam Antonacci L Edge

7.6% 0.0% 5.1% 5.9% D 37 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Anderson's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.5% ← leak BRK 37.0% OFF 2.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dillon Dingler R

12.5% 9.0% 6.7% 10.9% C 56 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Spencer Torkelson R

13.9% 11.3% 12.5% 13.1% D 47 +390

151

Gleyber Torres R

9.0% 6.2% 0.0% 7.4% D 39 +750

156

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

7.9% 6.6% 1.6% 6.6% D 38 +700

165

Colt Keith L Edge

6.6% 14.0% 3.2% 7.0% D 37 +700

202

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.4% 1.7% 0.0% 2.4% D 29 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.5% usage) carries Burke's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Benintendi Meidroth Dingler

Legend

attack side — vs Anderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Munetaka Murakami +350 · 68

Miguel Vargas +390 · 62

Dillon Dingler +500 · 56

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 0.97× Wind 8 mph slight_out 74°F open

↑

8 mph · slight_out

73°F

1:40p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

75°F

2:40p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

77°F

3:40p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

79°F

4:40p · peak

↑

8 mph · slight_out

80°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 74°F, wind 8 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Drew Anderson · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.43 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 68 C+ +350 · 4 0.304 94.2 13.1% 37.9%vs RHP 403 19.4% 27.3% 31.7% 25

2 Miguel Vargas 62 C+ +390 · 11 0.247 90.7 10.8% 16.8%vs RHP 393 21.2% 27.3% 29.8% 34

3 Colson Montgomery 54 C +390 COOL 48 0.220 88.9 10.0% 25.7%vs RHP 399 22.0% 8.3% 15.0% 27

4 Andrew Benintendi 46 D +625 COOL 91 0.177 88.9 8.4% 16.4%vs RHP 389 13.9% 16.7% 10.8% 23

5 Chase Meidroth 40 D — COOL 139 0.140 87.8 6.1% 17.4%vs RHP 379 8.7% 20.0% 17.2% 31

6 Tristan Peters 40 D +850 COOL 140 0.156 87.3 6.4% 10.9%vs RHP 377 8.2% 16.7% 8.8% 21

7 Braden Montgomery 37 D +850 WARM 164 0.144 89.2 5.8% 15.0%vs RHP 383 5.7% 9.1% 8.6% 25

8 Sam Antonacci 37 D +850 COOL 166 0.129 87.6 7.0% 14.0%vs RHP 390 9.6% 0.0% 7.8% 33

vs Sean Burke · RHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 56 C +500 · 34 0.242 88.9 9.3% 32.0%vs RHP 398 20.2% 25.0% 26.8% 39

2 Spencer Torkelson 47 D +390 · 81 0.194 89.4 10.2% 23.6%vs RHP 394 15.1% 0.0% 12.7% 32

3 Gleyber Torres 39 D +750 COOL 151 0.133 86.0 7.7% 15.8%vs RHP 393 10.4% 16.7% 8.2% 39

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 38 D +700 COOL 156 0.138 87.9 7.2% 9.0%vs RHP 396 20.0% 0.0% 7.5% 40

5 Colt Keith 37 D +700 COOL 165 0.146 88.7 7.5% 12.3%vs RHP 389 6.0% 0.0% 8.3% 24

6 Zach Mckinstry 29 D +950 WARM 202 0.105 85.7 4.4% 6.3%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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