TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.75×

SEA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 7:20p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.16× Wind 12 mph out 94°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+19 ↑

6:20p

+19 ↑

7:20p

+18 ↑

8:20p

+17 ↑

9:20p

+16 ↑

10:20p

best window is early — 6:20p at +19

Best of game Julio Rodríguez conv 24 · vs Brown ⟷ Cam Smith conv 19 · vs Woo → edge: Dominic Canzone

ATTACK Hunter Brown RHP · HOU

leak 92

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · leakiest side of this game

1 Julio Rodríguez +500 C ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena +625 C ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone +475 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Bryan Woo RHP · SEA

leak 40

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cam Smith +625 C ●●●○○

2 Christian Walker +425 C ●●○○○

3 Jeremy Peña +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dominic Canzone: 13.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 8.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Brown +500 0.170 · 89.9 · 7.9% 25.0% 22.8% F B O C 57

· HOU Cam Smith vs Woo +625 0.174 · 89.4 · 8.9% 18.2% 20.7% F B O C 53

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Brown +625 0.176 · 91.1 · 7.3% 16.7% 16.6% F B O C 54

· SEA Dominic Canzone ✶ COOL vs Brown Edge +475 0.236 · 91.5 · 9.6% 8.3% 21.6% F B O C+ 62

· HOU Christian Walker vs Woo +425 0.217 · 89.4 · 8.1% 9.1% 16.5% F B O C 56

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Brown Edge +390 0.136 · 88.9 · 9.4% 9.1% 10.3% F B O C 51

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Woo Edge +235 0.304 · 94.5 · 11.1% 0.0% 19.3% F B O C+ 62

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Brown Edge +750 0.108 · 87.6 · 5.9% 10.0% 13.9% F B O D 43

· HOU Jeremy Peña COOL vs Woo +575 0.180 · 88.3 · 6.0% 8.3% 14.2% F B O D 48

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Brown Edge +750 0.139 · 88.9 · 5.8% 9.1% 11.3% F B O D 47

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Woo +525 0.159 · 86.0 · 6.0% 9.1% 11.0% F B O D 45

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Woo — 0.106 · 85.8 · 2.9% 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 34

· HOU Yainer Diaz COOL vs Woo +850 0.145 · 87.7 · 6.0% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 43

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Woo +750 0.149 · 85.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 62.3% ← leak BRK 28.2% OFF 9.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Dominic Canzone L Edge

16.0% 12.5% 8.7% 13.3% C+ 62 +475

Julio Rodríguez R

9.1% 8.2% 9.1% 8.9% C 57 +500

Randy Arozarena R

8.1% 7.5% 7.4% 7.8% C 54 +625

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.5% 16.3% 14.6% 12.7% C 51 +390

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Cole Young L Edge

4.3% 9.0% 1.7% 4.8% D 47 +750

114

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.7% 8.4% 1.6% 5.0% D 43 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.3% usage) carries Brown's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.2% ← leak BRK 28.2% OFF 6.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

18.4% 23.4% 10.1% 18.1% C+ 62 +235

Christian Walker R

8.2% 10.5% 13.9% 9.5% C 56 +425

Cam Smith R

9.8% 15.2% 17.2% 11.8% C 53 +625

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jeremy Peña R

3.6% 7.2% 10.0% 5.3% D 48 +575

101

Isaac Paredes R

7.1% 3.2% 1.9% 5.3% D 45 +525

118

Yainer Diaz R

6.3% 3.1% 6.5% 5.2% D 43 +850

143

Jose Altuve R

6.0% 4.8% 0.0% 5.1% D 39 +750

180

Christian Vazquez R

1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.2% usage) carries Woo's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Rodríguez Arozarena Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Brown fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Julio Rodríguez +500 · 57

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 6:20p · roof retractable

Park 1.16× Wind 12 mph out 94°F retractable

+19

↑

12 mph · out

94°F

6:20p · peak

+19

↑

12 mph · out

92°F

7:20p

+18

↑

11 mph · out

89°F

8:20p

+17

↑

10 mph · out

86°F

9:20p

+16

↑

10 mph · out

84°F

10:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.75× 94°F, wind 12 mph SE (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Hunter Brown · RHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone ✶ 62 C+ +475 COOL 10 0.236 91.5 9.6% 27.1%vs RHP 402 16.2% 8.3% 21.6% 37

2 Julio Rodríguez 57 C +500 · 27 0.170 89.9 7.9% 20.0%vs RHP 405 17.0% 25.0% 22.8% 31

3 Randy Arozarena 54 C +625 COOL 45 0.176 91.1 7.3% 24.5%vs RHP 386 13.4% 16.7% 16.6% 36

4 Cal Raleigh 51 C +390 WARM 59 0.136 88.9 9.4% 11.9%vs RHP 395 12.2% 9.1% 10.3% 24

5 Cole Young 47 D +750 COOL 80 0.139 88.9 5.8% 16.7%vs RHP 387 11.9% 9.1% 11.3% 41

6 Josh Naylor 43 D +750 WARM 114 0.108 87.6 5.9% 11.9%vs RHP 392 6.9% 10.0% 13.9% 29

vs Bryan Woo · RHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 62 C+ +235 COOL 8 0.304 94.5 11.1% 27.3%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 37

2 Christian Walker 56 C +425 · 32 0.217 89.4 8.1% 25.7%vs RHP 392 18.3% 9.1% 16.5% 34

3 Cam Smith 53 C +625 · 50 0.174 89.4 8.9% 19.2%vs RHP 408 12.7% 18.2% 20.7% 28

4 Jeremy Peña 48 D +575 COOL 75 0.180 88.3 6.0% 29.3%vs RHP 385 13.8% 8.3% 14.2% 35

5 Isaac Paredes 45 D +525 COOL 101 0.159 86.0 6.0% 17.4%vs RHP 377 12.0% 9.1% 11.0% 43

6 Yainer Diaz 43 D +850 COOL 118 0.145 87.7 6.0% 25.8%vs RHP 398 10.3% 0.0% 11.0% 20

7 Jose Altuve 39 D +750 COOL 143 0.149 85.3 5.9% 22.0%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 38

8 Christian Vazquez 34 D — WARM 180 0.106 85.8 2.9% 12.5%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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