TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.49×

TEX @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 4:05p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.24× Wind 3 mph cross 89°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

1:05p

+10 ↑

2:05p

+11 ↑

3:05p

+13 ↑

4:05p

+14 ↑

5:05p

conditions build late — the 5:05p window peaks +14

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 27 · vs Lopez ⟷ Lawrence Butler conv 24 · vs Bradford → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Jacob Lopez LHP · ATH

leak 70

1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●○

2 Brandon Nimmo +425 C ●●●○○

3 Corey Seager +305 C ●●●○○

FADE Cody Bradford LHP · TEX

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -2.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Lawrence Butler +500 D ●●●●○

2 Tyler Soderstrom +370 C+ ●●●○○

3 Jeff Mcneil — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Lopez — 0.255 · 92.2 · 7.8% 18.2% 36.1% F B O C+ 68

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Lopez +425 0.166 · 92.2 · 7.5% 23.1% 21.5% F B O C 56

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Bradford +370 0.227 · 90.7 · 8.7% 16.7% 26.6% F B O C+ 60

· TEX Corey Seager vs Lopez +305 0.190 · 91.4 · 9.1% 16.7% 17.5% F B O C 59

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Lopez Edge +330 0.206 · 89.3 · 6.4% 7.7% 17.8% F B O C 56

· TEX Jake Burger vs Lopez Edge +290 0.180 · 89.9 · 7.5% 8.3% 16.9% F B O C 56

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Lopez Edge +525 0.171 · 88.7 · 5.8% 7.7% 12.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Bradford +500 0.138 · 89.4 · 7.9% 33.3% 14.0% F B O D 49

· ATH Jeff Mcneil HOT vs Bradford — 0.090 · 86.4 · 3.4% 25.0% 5.8% F B O D 36

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Bradford Edge +390 0.093 · 90.9 · 7.6% 16.7% 12.0% F B O D 45

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Bradford Edge +425 0.185 · 87.7 · 7.7% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 49

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Bradford — 0.154 · 89.5 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 45

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Lopez +750 0.126 · 87.7 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 44

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Bradford Edge — 0.123 · 84.1 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.0% ← leak BRK 32.3% OFF 8.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Joc Pederson L

14.5% 12.5% 3.6% 11.4% C+ 68 —

Corey Seager L

14.4% 14.3% 17.6% 15.1% C 59 +305

Brandon Nimmo L

8.5% 18.0% 8.3% 10.9% C 56 +425

Jake Burger R Edge

9.9% 12.0% 9.4% 10.6% C 56 +290

Wyatt Langford R Edge

4.9% 11.5% 15.0% 7.9% C 56 +330

Ezequiel Duran R Edge

8.3% 5.9% 0.0% 6.4% C 51 +525

Long shots · 1 — below the fade line

110

Evan Carter L

7.5% 4.5% 0.0% 5.6% D 44 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.0% usage) carries Lopez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.3% ← leak OFF 35.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Tyler Soderstrom L

9.4% 0.0% 9.5% C+ 60 +370

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Lawrence Butler L

7.9% 3.8% 7.1% D 49 +500

Jonah Heim S Edge

7.7% 10.4% 7.5% D 49 +425

Carlos Cortes L

7.5% 7.8% 6.9% D 45 —

100

Henry Bolte R Edge

8.4% 4.8% 7.6% D 45 +390

154

Jacob Wilson R Edge

4.1% 0.0% 2.5% D 38 —

174

Jeff Mcneil L

1.2% 1.7% 1.4% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.3% usage) carries Bradford's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Seager Nimmo Soderstrom Butler Bolte Mcneil

Legend

attack side — vs Lopez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Brandon Nimmo +425 · 56

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 1.24× Wind 3 mph cross 89°F open

↑

3 mph · cross

87°F

1:05p

+10

↑

3 mph · slight_out

93°F

2:05p

+11

↑

3 mph · slight_out

93°F

3:05p

+13

↑

4 mph · out

93°F

4:05p

+14

↑

5 mph · out

92°F

5:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.49× 89°F, wind 3 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob Lopez · LHP 1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 68 C+ — WARM 3 0.255 92.2 7.8% 26.2% 396 21.8% 18.2% 36.1% 21

2 Corey Seager 59 C +305 · 22 0.190 91.4 9.1% 18.2%vs LHP 395 16.9% 16.7% 17.5% 35

3 Brandon Nimmo 56 C +425 COOL 29 0.166 92.2 7.5% 21.7%vs LHP 403 10.6% 23.1% 21.5% 39

4 Jake Burger 56 C +290 · 31 0.180 89.9 7.5% 30.0%vs LHP 400 15.3% 8.3% 16.9% 28

5 Wyatt Langford 56 C +330 COOL 33 0.206 89.3 6.4% 22.2%vs LHP 397 16.7% 7.7% 17.8% 29

6 Ezequiel Duran 51 C +525 · 58 0.171 88.7 5.8% 11.1%vs LHP 393 12.3% 7.7% 12.8% 34

7 Evan Carter 44 D +750 COOL 110 0.126 87.7 5.3% 0.0%vs LHP 374 7.8% 0.0% 7.7% 31

vs Cody Bradford · LHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -2.07 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Tyler Soderstrom 60 C+ +370 WARM 17 0.227 90.7 8.7% 32.1%vs LHP 404 15.7% 16.7% 26.6% 24

2 Lawrence Butler 49 D +500 WARM 70 0.138 89.4 7.9% 18.2%vs LHP 410 7.8% 33.3% 14.0% 36

3 Jonah Heim 49 D +425 · 71 0.185 87.7 7.7% 33.3%vs LHP 414 9.5% 0.0% 13.0% 31

4 Carlos Cortes 45 D — COOL 99 0.154 89.5 7.4% 12.1% 403 4.7% 0.0% 8.5% 15

5 Henry Bolte 45 D +390 WARM 100 0.093 90.9 7.6% 36.4%vs LHP 423 11.9% 16.7% 12.0% 32

6 Jacob Wilson 38 D — WARM 154 0.123 84.1 4.5% 8.0%vs LHP 386 6.6% 0.0% 6.8% 24

7 Jeff Mcneil 36 D — HOT 174 0.090 86.4 3.4% 0.0%vs LHP 382 5.4% 25.0% 5.8% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.