TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ TOR

Playable air · 1.05×

NYY @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 1:37p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 7 mph slight_out 80°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+2 ↑

1:37p

+2 ↑

2:37p

+4 ↑

3:37p

+6 ↑

4:37p

+5 ↑

5:37p

conditions build late — the 4:37p window peaks +6

Best of game Jesús Sánchez conv 10 · vs Weathers ⟷ Trent Grisham conv 28 · vs Cease → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Ryan Weathers LHP · NYY

leak 96

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.72 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jesús Sánchez — D ●●○○○

2 Nathan Lukes — D ●○○○○

3 Ernie Clement +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Dylan Cease RHP · TOR

leak 83

0.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trent Grisham +425 D ●●●●○

2 Ben Rice +390 C ●●○○○

3 Austin Wells +700 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 8.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Cease Edge +390 0.280 · 92.3 · 8.8% 8.3% 18.0% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Cease Edge +425 0.200 · 90.9 · 7.2% 33.3% 22.4% F B O D 47

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Weathers — 0.163 · 90.9 · 9.7% 11.1% 9.4% F B O D 44

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Weathers — 0.101 · 86.6 · 3.1% 10.0% 7.2% F B O D 29

· NYY Austin Wells vs Cease Edge +700 0.123 · 89.1 · 6.0% 9.1% 8.0% F B O D 33

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Weathers Edge +850 0.122 · 84.6 · 4.5% 8.3% 8.3% F B O D 32

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Weathers Edge +425 0.202 · 90.3 · 10.0% 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 49

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Cease — 0.203 · 86.6 · 7.3% 0.0% 13.9% F B O D 42

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.172 · 90.8 · 6.9% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 36

· NYY Jose Caballero HOT vs Cease — 0.148 · 83.7 · 4.6% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 29

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Cease Edge +700 0.156 · 91.1 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 37

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Weathers Edge +525 0.155 · 88.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 39

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Weathers Edge — 0.112 · 85.7 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 30

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Weathers +950 0.121 · 85.8 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.1% ← leak BRK 43.5% OFF 11.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

17.8% 12.1% 12.5% 15.2% C 55 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.6% 7.7% 5.3% 10.1% D 47 +425

123

Paul Goldschmidt R

13.9% 4.5% 9.1% 10.4% D 42 —

158

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

12.4% 4.2% 11.1% 10.0% D 37 +700

168

Jazz Chisholm L Edge

7.2% 13.4% 7.5% 9.2% D 36 —

184

Austin Wells L Edge

9.2% 5.9% 0.0% 7.1% D 33 +700

198

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.1% usage) carries Cease's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.5% ← leak BRK 32.7% OFF 24.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Kazuma Okamoto R Edge

14.5% 7.1% 14.3% 12.3% D 49 +425

107

Jesús Sánchez L

10.9% 18.3% 0.0% 11.4% D 44 —

146

George Springer R Edge

7.6% 5.6% 7.1% 6.9% D 39 +525

187

Ernie Clement R Edge

2.5% 2.3% 1.9% 2.4% D 32 +850

194

Andres Gimenez L

3.8% 2.2% 5.0% 3.4% D 30 +950

195

Myles Straw R Edge

3.8% 0.0% 6.2% 3.2% D 30 —

200

Nathan Lukes L

0.0% 3.4% 2.2% 1.2% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.5% usage) carries Weathers's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Grisham

Legend

attack side — vs Weathers fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Trent Grisham +425 · 47

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 1:37p · roof retractable

Park 0.96× Wind 7 mph slight_out 80°F retractable

↑

7 mph · slight_out

76°F

1:37p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

78°F

2:37p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

79°F

3:37p

↑

8 mph · out

80°F

4:37p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

78°F

5:37p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.05× 80°F, wind 7 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Dylan Cease · RHP 0.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 55 C +390 WARM 38 0.280 92.3 8.8% 30.7%vs RHP 391 24.1% 8.3% 18.0% 27

2 Trent Grisham 47 D +425 · 78 0.200 90.9 7.2% 21.0%vs RHP 385 13.4% 33.3% 22.4% 38

3 Paul Goldschmidt 42 D — WARM 123 0.203 86.6 7.3% 18.4%vs RHP 390 15.9% 0.0% 13.9% 6

4 Ryan Mcmahon 37 D +700 · 158 0.156 91.1 7.1% 19.2%vs RHP 387 16.7% 0.0% 10.2% 26

5 Jazz Chisholm 36 D — COOL 168 0.172 90.8 6.9% 24.5%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 23

6 Austin Wells 33 D +700 · 184 0.123 89.1 6.0% 14.6%vs RHP 387 9.4% 9.1% 8.0% 22

7 Jose Caballero 29 D — HOT 198 0.148 83.7 4.6% 22.2%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 6

vs Ryan Weathers · LHP 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.72 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 49 D +425 COOL 69 0.202 90.3 10.0% 18.5%vs LHP 397 16.7% 0.0% 14.3% 30

2 Jesús Sánchez 44 D — WARM 107 0.163 90.9 9.7% 0.0%vs LHP 398 10.4% 11.1% 9.4% 16

3 George Springer 39 D +525 COOL 146 0.155 88.5 7.5% 8.3%vs LHP 393 10.7% 0.0% 9.5% 29

4 Ernie Clement 32 D +850 COOL 187 0.122 84.6 4.5% 10.3%vs LHP 376 7.8% 8.3% 8.3% 44

5 Andres Gimenez 30 D +950 COOL 194 0.121 85.8 5.3% 13.3%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 37

6 Myles Straw 30 D — COOL 195 0.112 85.7 5.1% 5.9%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 35

7 Nathan Lukes 29 D — WARM 200 0.101 86.6 3.1% 9.7% 381 6.2% 10.0% 7.2% 45

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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