TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.62×

AZ @ ATL

Truist Park · 1:35p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph out 92°F Roof open

Hourly window

+11 ↑

1:35p

+12 ↑

2:35p

+13 ↑

3:35p

+14 ↑

4:35p

+13 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 4:35p window peaks +14

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 28 · vs Elder ⟷ Matt Olson conv 37 · vs Soroka → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Bryce Elder RHP · ATL

leak 81

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +500 C ●●●●○

2 Tim Tawa +525 D ●●●○○

3 Ketel Marte — C ●●●○○

FADE Michael Soroka RHP · AZ

leak 44

0.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.73 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +290 B ●●●●●

2 Austin Riley +400 D ●●●○○

3 Mike Yastrzemski +525 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 15.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Soroka Edge +290 0.282 · 92.6 · 11.5% 41.7% 32.6% F B O B 70

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Elder +500 0.190 · 85.1 · 6.9% 30.8% 25.9% F B O C 55

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Elder Edge — 0.197 · 90.2 · 8.2% 16.7% 18.7% F B O C 55

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Elder Edge +305 0.238 · 91.6 · 9.0% 15.4% 17.4% F B O C 59

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Soroka Edge +400 0.176 · 91.6 · 10.7% 0.0% 12.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Soroka +400 0.149 · 91.2 · 10.3% 25.0% 15.8% F B O D 49

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Elder +525 0.161 · 90.4 · 7.2% 14.3% 23.5% F B O D 49

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski HOT vs Soroka Edge +525 0.165 · 90.6 · 8.0% 14.3% 18.6% F B O D 46

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Soroka Edge +525 0.175 · 87.0 · 6.1% 18.2% 13.1% F B O D 45

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Soroka — 0.187 · 90.4 · 10.6% 0.0% 20.9% F B O D 47

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Elder Edge +950 0.134 · 87.3 · 4.6% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 40

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Soroka Edge — 0.195 · 90.7 · 9.7% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 46

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Elder +700 0.148 · 89.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 44

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Soroka Edge — 0.130 · 87.8 · 6.9% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 39

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Elder +750 0.113 · 88.3 · 6.8% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 41

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Elder Edge +750 0.129 · 87.3 · 4.6% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 39

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Soroka +950 0.131 · 86.9 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.4% ← leak BRK 24.1% OFF 10.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Corbin Carroll L Edge

11.3% 15.4% 9.9% 12.3% C 59 +305

Ketel Marte S Edge

14.1% 7.8% 3.5% 10.2% C 55 —

Nolan Arenado R

10.1% 2.0% 6.1% 7.1% C 55 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Tim Tawa R

7.2% 10.8% 4.8% 7.8% D 49 +525

104

Gabriel Moreno R

6.1% 7.1% 8.1% 6.7% D 44 +700

127

Ryan Waldschmidt R

8.2% 7.1% 0.0% 7.0% D 41 +750

136

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.1% 2.9% 1.4% 3.2% D 40 +950

148

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.1% 1.6% 2.2% 3.2% D 39 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.4% usage) carries Elder's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.2% ← leak BRK 32.8% OFF 12.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

17.5% 12.3% 12.2% 15.2% B 70 +290

Neutral · 1

Drake Baldwin L Edge

13.2% 19.7% 4.4% 13.6% C 51 +400

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Austin Riley R

13.7% 13.1% 5.6% 12.5% D 49 +400

Ronald Acuna R

14.2% 11.6% 12.0% 13.3% D 47 —

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.8% 7.8% 6.5% 7.6% D 46 +525

Michael Harris L Edge

6.7% 13.8% 15.0% 10.6% D 46 —

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.9% 1.8% 2.9% 4.5% D 45 +525

145

Dominic Smith L Edge

5.9% 7.5% 2.6% 5.7% D 39 —

179

Mauricio Dubon R

2.8% 5.7% 4.9% 4.0% D 34 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.2% usage) carries Soroka's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Marte Arenado Tawa Olson Riley Yastrzemski Albies

Legend

attack side — vs Elder fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Matt Olson +290 · 70

Nolan Arenado +500 · 55

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph out 92°F open

+11

↑

7 mph · out

87°F

1:35p

+12

↑

8 mph · out

89°F

2:35p

+13

↑

9 mph · out

90°F

3:35p

+14

↑

10 mph · out

91°F

4:35p · peak

+13

↑

9 mph · out

90°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.62× 92°F, wind 7 mph NW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryce Elder · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 59 C +305 · 19 0.238 91.6 9.0% 16.9%vs RHP 402 14.4% 15.4% 17.4% 39

2 Ketel Marte 55 C — COOL 36 0.197 90.2 8.2% 14.3%vs RHP 409 15.4% 16.7% 18.7% 29

3 Nolan Arenado 55 C +500 · 40 0.190 85.1 6.9% 20.6%vs RHP 390 15.8% 30.8% 25.9% 36

4 Tim Tawa 49 D +525 WARM 66 0.161 90.4 7.2% 26.9%vs RHP 402 7.7% 14.3% 23.5% 35

5 Gabriel Moreno 44 D +700 COOL 104 0.148 89.2 6.7% 13.5%vs RHP 400 7.8% 0.0% 10.9% 38

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 41 D +750 COOL 127 0.113 88.3 6.8% 7.4%vs RHP 419 2.9% 0.0% 8.8% 31

7 Ildemaro Vargas 40 D +950 WARM 136 0.134 87.3 4.6% 8.1%vs RHP 399 5.6% 9.1% 8.3% 26

8 Geraldo Perdomo 39 D +750 · 148 0.129 87.3 4.6% 10.7%vs RHP 383 7.4% 0.0% 8.5% 41

vs Michael Soroka · RHP 0.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.73 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 70 B +290 WARM 1 0.282 92.6 11.5% 34.8%vs RHP 407 25.0% 41.7% 32.6% 32

2 Drake Baldwin 51 C +400 COOL 57 0.176 91.6 10.7% 26.0%vs RHP 403 16.5% 0.0% 12.8% 39

3 Austin Riley 49 D +400 HOT 67 0.149 91.2 10.3% 18.8%vs RHP 407 9.8% 25.0% 15.8% 25

4 Ronald Acuna 47 D — · 79 0.187 90.4 10.6% 23.7%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 20.9% 39

5 Mike Yastrzemski 46 D +525 HOT 83 0.165 90.6 8.0% 19.0%vs RHP 389 9.1% 14.3% 18.6% 17

6 Michael Harris 46 D — COOL 85 0.195 90.7 9.7% 23.6%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 32

7 Ozzie Albies 45 D +525 WARM 94 0.175 87.0 6.1% 14.3%vs RHP 386 14.6% 18.2% 13.1% 34

8 Dominic Smith 39 D — COOL 145 0.130 87.8 6.9% 15.4%vs RHP 392 8.3% 0.0% 10.5% 5

9 Mauricio Dubon 34 D +950 COOL 179 0.131 86.9 5.8% 10.7%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.