TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.62×

WSH @ NYM

Citi Field · 1:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 15 mph out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+13 ↑

1:40p

+14 ↑

2:40p

+14 ↑

3:40p

+15 ↑

4:40p

+15 ↑

5:40p

conditions build late — the 4:40p window peaks +15

Best of game Daylen Lile conv 14 · vs Scott ⟷ Francisco Lindor conv 23 · vs Irvin → edge: Francisco Lindor

ATTACK Christian Scott RHP · NYM

leak 84

0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · leakiest side of this game

1 Daylen Lile +500 D ●●○○○

2 Cj Abrams +330 C ●○○○○

3 Jacob Young — D ●○○○○

FADE Jake Irvin RHP · WSH

leak 78

1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Francisco Lindor +350 C ●●●●○

2 Brett Baty — D ●●●○○

3 Carson Benge +500 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Francisco Lindor: 9.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Francisco Lindor ✶ vs Irvin Edge +350 0.201 · 91.5 · 10.9% 25.0% 21.2% F B O C 54

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Scott Edge +330 0.255 · 89.7 · 8.3% 0.0% 17.9% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Irvin Edge — 0.114 · 89.8 · 10.2% 28.6% 12.9% F B O D 44

· NYM Carson Benge vs Irvin Edge +500 0.138 · 89.5 · 9.6% 27.3% 13.9% F B O D 46

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Irvin +575 0.145 · 86.4 · 9.1% 18.2% 11.4% F B O D 45

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Scott Edge +500 0.167 · 88.5 · 7.5% 16.7% 10.9% F B O D 41

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Irvin +625 0.117 · 89.3 · 8.5% 16.7% 8.6% F B O D 41

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Scott — 0.157 · 88.4 · 6.4% 9.1% 7.6% F B O D 37

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Scott +500 0.154 · 90.6 · 8.2% 8.3% 7.5% F B O D 41

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Irvin +425 0.179 · 90.1 · 14.1% 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 49

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Scott Edge +625 0.162 · 88.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 36

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Irvin Edge +625 0.131 · 89.7 · 9.6% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 39

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Scott Edge — 0.037 · 84.8 · 1.6% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 17

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 68.0% ← leak BRK 28.5% OFF 3.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Cj Abrams L Edge

10.6% 9.3% 12.2% 10.4% C 52 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

126

Daylen Lile L Edge

7.3% 13.1% 4.6% 8.4% D 41 +500

129

Dylan Crews R

6.5% 21.6% 14.3% 10.2% D 41 +500

162

Jacob Young R

8.2% 3.8% 2.9% 6.3% D 37 —

170

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

6.5% 3.1% 2.4% 4.8% D 36 +625

211

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 17 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (68.0% usage) carries Scott's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.5% ← leak BRK 33.1% OFF 5.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.9% 6.1% 6.5% 9.6% C 54 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Francisco Alvarez R

17.2% 15.7% 17.4% 16.7% D 49 +425

Carson Benge L Edge

7.3% 9.6% 6.7% 7.7% D 46 +500

Marcus Semien R

9.8% 2.2% 7.1% 7.1% D 45 +575

103

Brett Baty L Edge

8.1% 13.2% 4.1% 8.4% D 44 —

128

Bo Bichette R

5.0% 10.3% 0.0% 6.1% D 41 +625

142

A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.1% 11.3% 2.4% 7.8% D 39 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.5% usage) carries Irvin's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lile Lindor Benge Semien Baty

Legend

attack side — vs Scott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Francisco Lindor +350 · 54

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 15 mph out 80°F open

+13

↑

15 mph · out

77°F

1:40p

+14

↑

16 mph · out

77°F

2:40p

+14

↑

16 mph · out

76°F

3:40p

+15

↑

16 mph · out

76°F

4:40p · peak

+15

↑

16 mph · out

74°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.62× 80°F, wind 15 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +7 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Christian Scott · RHP 0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 52 C +330 COOL 53 0.255 89.7 8.3% 30.3%vs RHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 17.9% 32

2 Daylen Lile 41 D +500 WARM 126 0.167 88.5 7.5% 12.7%vs RHP 400 10.1% 16.7% 10.9% 37

3 Dylan Crews 41 D +500 · 129 0.154 90.6 8.2% 13.9%vs RHP 407 16.9% 8.3% 7.5% 33

4 Jacob Young 37 D — COOL 162 0.157 88.4 6.4% 14.0%vs RHP 399 8.1% 9.1% 7.6% 32

5 Keibert Ruiz 36 D +625 · 170 0.162 88.3 5.7% 7.4%vs RHP 377 8.8% 0.0% 8.9% 24

6 Nasim Nunez 17 D — COOL 211 0.037 84.8 1.6% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 31

vs Jake Irvin · RHP 1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor ✶ 54 C +350 · 42 0.201 91.5 10.9% 18.6%vs RHP 397 13.4% 25.0% 21.2% 35

2 Francisco Alvarez 49 D +425 · 65 0.179 90.1 14.1% 28.2%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 19

3 Carson Benge 46 D +500 WARM 89 0.138 89.5 9.6% 14.9%vs RHP 401 10.2% 27.3% 13.9% 35

4 Marcus Semien 45 D +575 COOL 95 0.145 86.4 9.1% 17.5%vs RHP 391 12.0% 18.2% 11.4% 34

5 Brett Baty 44 D — HOT 103 0.114 89.8 10.2% 13.3%vs RHP 397 7.2% 28.6% 12.9% 14

6 Bo Bichette 41 D +625 · 128 0.117 89.3 8.5% 10.1%vs RHP 389 9.2% 16.7% 8.6% 37

7 A.J. Ewing 39 D +625 WARM 142 0.131 89.7 9.6% 11.9%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.