TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ LAA

Angel Stadium is live · 1.37×

KC @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 4:07p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind 10 mph out 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

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best window is early — 2:07p at +8

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 25 · vs Johnson ⟷ Mike Trout conv 15 · vs Cameron → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK Ryan Johnson RHP · LAA

leak 89

2.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone +280 C ●●●●○

2 Michael Massey +425 D ●●○○○

3 Carter Jensen +280 D ●●○○○

FADE Noah Cameron LHP · KC

leak 64

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mike Trout +350 D ●●○○○

2 Josh Lowe — D ●○○○○

3 Zach Neto +400 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: 14.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Jac Caglianone ✶ vs Johnson Edge +280 0.222 · 93.2 · 12.4% 25.0% 25.8% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Cameron Edge +350 0.203 · 90.4 · 11.7% 15.4% 15.0% F B O D 49

· KC Michael Massey vs Johnson Edge +425 0.166 · 89.7 · 8.1% 18.2% 12.2% F B O D 43

· KC Carter Jensen vs Johnson Edge +280 0.184 · 90.7 · 10.2% 9.1% 11.0% F B O D 48

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Cameron — 0.152 · 89.4 · 8.8% 8.3% 9.4% F B O D 37

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Cameron Edge +400 0.188 · 89.4 · 10.0% 7.7% 9.9% F B O D 44

· LAA Nolan Schanuel vs Cameron +950 0.114 · 87.5 · 4.6% 7.7% 6.8% F B O D 27

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Johnson — 0.162 · 92.7 · 11.1% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 45

· KC Salvador Perez COOL vs Johnson +400 0.153 · 89.0 · 10.0% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 40

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Johnson +850 0.143 · 86.9 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 37

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Cameron Edge +750 0.124 · 87.6 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 32

· KC Isaac Collins vs Johnson Edge +575 0.126 · 88.4 · 7.8% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 36

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Cameron Edge +750 0.131 · 88.1 · 7.4% 0.0% 5.2% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.8% ← leak OFF 24.5% BRK 18.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jac Caglianone L Edge

13.2% 11.9% 17.7% 14.4% C 59 +280

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Carter Jensen L Edge

9.8% 10.0% 10.3% 10.0% D 48 +280

Bobby Witt R

11.9% 13.3% 10.4% 11.5% D 45 —

115

Michael Massey L Edge

7.4% 1.9% 5.6% 5.8% D 43 +425

132

Salvador Perez R

12.8% 7.1% 6.6% 9.5% D 40 +400

160

Nick Loftin R

5.7% 0.0% 2.0% 4.1% D 37 +850

171

Isaac Collins S Edge

5.9% 2.4% 9.7% 5.8% D 36 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.8% usage) carries Johnson's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.3% ← leak BRK 28.5% OFF 21.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Mike Trout R Edge

15.2% 24.4% 11.5% 16.5% D 49 +350

105

Zach Neto R Edge

13.9% 8.0% 10.3% 11.7% D 44 +400

159

Josh Lowe L

12.5% 2.6% 6.5% 8.7% D 37 —

188

Oswald Peraza R Edge

6.1% 6.9% 10.7% 7.0% D 32 +750

191

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

8.6% 6.2% 0.0% 6.5% D 32 +750

207

Nolan Schanuel L

2.7% 3.7% 0.0% 2.5% D 27 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.3% usage) carries Cameron's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Massey Trout

Legend

attack side — vs Johnson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jac Caglianone +280 · 59

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 1:07p · roof open

Park 0.86× Wind 10 mph out 87°F open

↑

10 mph · out

85°F

1:07p

↑

11 mph · out

88°F

2:07p · peak

↑

10 mph · out

87°F

3:07p

↑

10 mph · out

86°F

4:07p

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10 mph · out

85°F

5:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.37× 87°F, wind 10 mph SW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Johnson · RHP 2.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.23 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 59 C +280 · 20 0.222 93.2 12.4% 31.2%vs RHP 417 15.6% 25.0% 25.8% 41

2 Carter Jensen 48 D +280 · 77 0.184 90.7 10.2% 18.2%vs RHP 394 14.4% 9.1% 11.0% 22

3 Bobby Witt 45 D — COOL 98 0.162 92.7 11.1% 15.2%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 33

4 Michael Massey 43 D +425 · 115 0.166 89.7 8.1% 9.1%vs RHP 401 7.1% 18.2% 12.2% 29

5 Salvador Perez 40 D +400 COOL 132 0.153 89.0 10.0% 18.3%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 32

6 Nick Loftin 37 D +850 COOL 160 0.143 86.9 6.6% 10.3%vs RHP 397 8.5% 0.0% 7.7% 28

7 Isaac Collins 36 D +575 · 171 0.126 88.4 7.8% 8.3%vs RHP 394 5.8% 0.0% 6.8% 28

vs Noah Cameron · LHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 49 D +350 COOL 68 0.203 90.4 11.7% 21.7%vs LHP 409 15.7% 15.4% 15.0% 31

2 Zach Neto 44 D +400 COOL 105 0.188 89.4 10.0% 15.6%vs LHP 402 15.4% 7.7% 9.9% 31

3 Josh Lowe 37 D — WARM 159 0.152 89.4 8.8% 13.6% 397 9.9% 8.3% 9.4% 17

4 Oswald Peraza 32 D +750 WARM 188 0.124 87.6 7.6% 25.0%vs LHP 386 5.7% 0.0% 7.7% 14

5 Vaughn Grissom 32 D +750 COOL 191 0.131 88.1 7.4% 0.0%vs LHP 390 8.8% 0.0% 5.2% 30

6 Nolan Schanuel 27 D +950 · 207 0.114 87.5 4.6% 13.3%vs LHP 375 6.7% 7.7% 6.8% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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