TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.27×

STL @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 3:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 7 mph cross 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

2:15p

+4 ↑

3:15p

+5 ↑

4:15p

+4 ↑

5:15p

+3 ↑

6:15p

the 4:15p window peaks +5

Best of game Alec Burleson conv 27 · vs Cabrera ⟷ Seiya Suzuki conv 27 · vs Dobbins → edge: Alec Burleson

ATTACK Edward Cabrera RHP · CHC

leak 99

1.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Alec Burleson +370 C+ ●●●●○

2 Jordan Walker +400 C+ ●●○○○

3 Nathan Church +850 D ●●○○○

FADE Hunter Dobbins RHP · STL

leak 21

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Seiya Suzuki +400 C ●●●●○

2 Alex Bregman +625 D ●●●○○

3 Pete Crow-Armstrong +370 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Alec Burleson: 11.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Alec Burleson ✶ vs Cabrera Edge +370 0.193 · 92.0 · 11.1% 27.3% 26.3% F B O C+ 61

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Dobbins +400 0.213 · 89.0 · 8.3% 25.0% 28.3% F B O C 57

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Dobbins Edge +370 0.255 · 90.3 · 8.9% 15.4% 27.0% F B O C+ 62

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Dobbins Edge +500 0.197 · 89.3 · 8.6% 16.7% 21.2% F B O C 55

· CHC Dansby Swanson vs Dobbins +575 0.187 · 89.5 · 7.1% 16.7% 20.3% F B O C 50

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Cabrera +400 0.204 · 92.6 · 12.0% 9.1% 19.6% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman HOT vs Dobbins +625 0.153 · 88.3 · 5.5% 23.1% 21.3% F B O D 46

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Dobbins +850 0.112 · 86.9 · 6.1% 12.5% 9.0% F B O D 39

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Cabrera Edge +850 0.124 · 85.9 · 8.6% 10.0% 10.0% F B O D 45

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Dobbins — 0.102 · 86.0 · 2.7% 8.3% 9.2% F B O D 32

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Dobbins Edge +500 0.141 · 88.1 · 7.7% 7.7% 8.2% F B O D 44

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Cabrera +575 0.140 · 89.5 · 7.9% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 43

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Cabrera Edge +575 0.134 · 89.8 · 8.9% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 46

· STL Masyn Winn vs Cabrera +950 0.081 · 88.2 · 5.8% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 36

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Cabrera +850 0.114 · 86.8 · 4.7% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 38.8% ← leak BRK 30.8% OFF 30.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jordan Walker R

13.4% 11.5% 16.7% 13.1% C+ 61 +400

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.8% 11.9% 10.0% 11.5% C+ 61 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

10.0% 4.3% 2.0% 7.4% D 46 +575

Nathan Church L Edge

8.4% 6.4% 4.6% 6.8% D 45 +850

112

Ivan Herrera R

6.3% 4.8% 6.7% 5.8% D 43 +575

152

José Fermín R

2.5% 2.2% 0.0% 2.0% D 38 +850

169

Masyn Winn R

3.3% 2.0% 5.9% 3.1% D 36 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (38.8% usage) carries Cabrera's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 44.5% BRK 43.2% OFF 12.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

10.8% 13.8% 13.8% 12.3% C+ 62 +370

Seiya Suzuki R

11.1% 9.4% 9.1% 10.3% C 57 +400

Ian Happ S Edge

14.6% 14.7% 1.4% 11.3% C 55 +500

Dansby Swanson R

7.6% 6.5% 11.8% 7.7% C 50 +575

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Alex Bregman R

3.6% 6.9% 6.1% 4.7% D 46 +625

109

Michael Busch L Edge

12.1% 3.8% 2.1% 8.8% D 44 +500

147

Carson Kelly R

6.4% 4.1% 5.6% 5.6% D 39 +850

185

Nico Hoerner R

1.1% 0.9% 2.1% 1.1% D 32 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Dobbins's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Burleson Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Happ Swanson Bregman

Legend

attack side — vs Cabrera fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Alec Burleson +370 · 61

Seiya Suzuki +400 · 57

Alex Bregman +625 · 46

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 2:15p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 7 mph cross 87°F open

↑

7 mph · cross

84°F

2:15p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

84°F

3:15p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

83°F

4:15p · peak

↑

8 mph · slight_out

82°F

5:15p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

82°F

6:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.27× 87°F, wind 7 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Edward Cabrera · RHP 1.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.21 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 61 C+ +400 COOL 14 0.204 92.6 12.0% 27.0%vs RHP 408 16.4% 9.1% 19.6% 33

2 Alec Burleson ✶ 61 C+ +370 WARM 16 0.193 92.0 11.1% 21.9%vs RHP 404 15.4% 27.3% 26.3% 30

3 Jj Wetherholt 46 D +575 · 88 0.134 89.8 8.9% 16.2%vs RHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 10.1% 32

4 Nathan Church 45 D +850 COOL 97 0.124 85.9 8.6% 16.7%vs RHP 384 8.3% 10.0% 10.0% 34

5 Ivan Herrera 43 D +575 WARM 112 0.140 89.5 7.9% 17.8%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 39

6 José Fermín 38 D +850 COOL 152 0.114 86.8 4.7% 7.7%vs RHP 388 5.6% 0.0% 9.8% 28

7 Masyn Winn 36 D +950 · 169 0.081 88.2 5.8% 8.7%vs RHP 390 3.4% 0.0% 10.0% 29

vs Hunter Dobbins · RHP 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 62 C+ +370 · 9 0.255 90.3 8.9% 22.5%vs RHP 396 19.4% 15.4% 27.0% 35

2 Seiya Suzuki 57 C +400 WARM 26 0.213 89.0 8.3% 22.2%vs RHP 404 16.8% 25.0% 28.3% 39

3 Ian Happ 55 C +500 COOL 37 0.197 89.3 8.6% 24.3%vs RHP 402 17.2% 16.7% 21.2% 25

4 Dansby Swanson 50 C +575 · 61 0.187 89.5 7.1% 17.4%vs RHP 405 12.4% 16.7% 20.3% 30

5 Alex Bregman 46 D +625 HOT 82 0.153 88.3 5.5% 19.3%vs RHP 387 10.7% 23.1% 21.3% 43

6 Michael Busch 44 D +500 COOL 109 0.141 88.1 7.7% 13.4%vs RHP 401 12.0% 7.7% 8.2% 41

7 Carson Kelly 39 D +850 COOL 147 0.112 86.9 6.1% 6.7%vs RHP 413 7.0% 12.5% 9.0% 23

8 Nico Hoerner 32 D — WARM 185 0.102 86.0 2.7% 7.7%vs RHP 381 5.8% 8.3% 9.2% 43

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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