TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ MIN

Target Field is live · 1.43×

PHI @ MIN

Target Field · 2:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 10 mph out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

1:10p

+8 ↑

2:10p

+7 ↑

3:10p

+7 ↑

4:10p

+7 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +8

Best of game Josh Bell conv 21 · vs Painter ⟷ Bryce Harper conv 28 · vs Kremer → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Andrew Painter RHP · PHI

leak 95

1.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.58 · leakiest side of this game

1 Josh Bell +525 C ●●●○○

2 Royce Lewis +425 C ●●○○○

3 Luke Keaschall +950 D ●●○○○

FADE Dean Kremer RHP · BAL

leak 95

2.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.49 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryce Harper +425 C+ ●●●●○

2 Kyle Schwarber +255 C+ ●●●●○

3 Brandon Marsh +950 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 18.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Bryce Harper COOL vs Kremer Edge +425 0.242 · 90.2 · 9.2% 23.1% 33.9% F B O C+ 61

· — Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Kremer Edge +255 0.294 · 93.3 · 11.7% 15.4% 36.5% F B O C+ 69

· MIN Josh Bell vs Painter Edge +525 0.170 · 90.0 · 9.2% 25.0% 16.1% F B O C 50

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Painter +425 0.186 · 90.2 · 10.1% 16.7% 14.6% F B O C 52

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Painter Edge +500 0.228 · 92.4 · 9.8% 10.0% 14.8% F B O C 55

· MIN Byron Buxton COOL vs Painter +390 0.280 · 90.3 · 12.1% 0.0% 24.5% F B O C+ 64

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Painter +950 0.105 · 84.7 · 5.1% 18.2% 10.3% F B O D 35

· MIN Austin Martin vs Painter — 0.090 · 87.1 · 5.2% 20.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Painter Edge +750 0.157 · 87.5 · 8.1% 12.5% 9.8% F B O D 44

· — Brandon Marsh vs Kremer Edge +950 0.167 · 89.7 · 8.0% 9.1% 11.9% F B O D 46

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Painter Edge +850 0.174 · 87.7 · 5.5% 9.1% 11.5% F B O D 43

· — Trea Turner COOL vs Kremer — 0.151 · 88.4 · 6.9% 8.3% 10.5% F B O D 43

· — Bryson Stott COOL vs Kremer Edge +625 0.150 · 89.5 · 6.9% 7.7% 9.1% F B O D 41

· — J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Kremer +850 0.125 · 89.8 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 35

· — Alec Bohm vs Kremer +850 0.130 · 90.4 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 39

· MIN Victor Caratini vs Painter Edge +850 0.108 · 89.6 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 36

· — Justin Crawford vs Kremer Edge — 0.087 · 87.2 · 3.4% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 42.7% ← leak BRK 41.4% OFF 15.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Byron Buxton R

19.2% 14.9% 13.8% 17.3% C+ 64 +390

Kody Clemens L Edge

8.7% 19.4% 10.2% 11.3% C 55 +500

Royce Lewis R

15.0% 7.6% 7.4% 12.0% C 52 +425

Josh Bell S Edge

11.1% 12.9% 5.3% 10.1% C 50 +525

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

106

Trevor Larnach L Edge

8.0% 9.1% 5.0% 7.8% D 44 +750

116

Brooks Lee S Edge

6.8% 0.0% 1.1% 3.6% D 43 +850

167

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.9% 11.8% 5.9% 6.8% D 36 +850

176

Luke Keaschall R

4.2% 2.2% 0.0% 3.1% D 35 +950

181

Austin Martin R

3.8% 2.2% 0.0% 3.2% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.7% usage) carries Painter's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.0% ← leak OFF 28.3% BRK 13.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

18.1% 27.6% 15.0% 18.2% C+ 69 +255

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.3% 6.2% 14.4% 11.4% C+ 61 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Marsh L Edge

7.3% 4.1% 13.5% 8.5% D 46 +950

119

Trea Turner R

8.2% 2.5% 4.5% 6.3% D 43 —

130

Bryson Stott L Edge

8.0% 5.0% 4.0% 6.3% D 41 +625

149

Alec Bohm R

4.4% 8.8% 6.5% 5.4% D 39 +850

175

J.T. Realmuto R

3.8% 4.8% 6.9% 4.7% D 35 +850

199

Justin Crawford L Edge

2.1% 0.0% 1.2% 1.5% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.0% usage) carries Kremer's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lewis Bell Keaschall Martin Schwarber Harper

Legend

attack side — vs Painter fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Bryce Harper +425 · 61

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 10 mph out 79°F open

↑

10 mph · out

76°F

1:10p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

78°F

2:10p

↑

8 mph · out

81°F

3:10p

↑

7 mph · out

83°F

4:10p

↑

7 mph · out

83°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.43× 79°F, wind 10 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Painter · RHP 1.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.58 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton 64 C+ +390 COOL 7 0.280 90.3 12.1% 31.8%vs RHP 402 27.7% 0.0% 24.5% 5

2 Kody Clemens 55 C +500 COOL 39 0.228 92.4 9.8% 18.5%vs RHP 391 16.9% 10.0% 14.8% 28

3 Royce Lewis 52 C +425 · 54 0.186 90.2 10.1% 16.7%vs RHP 400 16.2% 16.7% 14.6% 35

4 Josh Bell 50 C +525 · 62 0.170 90.0 9.2% 19.0%vs RHP 405 11.5% 25.0% 16.1% 42

5 Trevor Larnach 44 D +750 WARM 106 0.157 87.5 8.1% 15.5%vs RHP 397 9.5% 12.5% 9.8% 27

6 Brooks Lee 43 D +850 · 116 0.174 87.7 5.5% 19.4%vs RHP 371 14.3% 9.1% 11.5% 33

7 Victor Caratini 36 D +850 · 167 0.108 89.6 7.6% 16.2%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 12

8 Luke Keaschall 35 D +950 · 176 0.105 84.7 5.1% 10.4%vs RHP 371 6.7% 18.2% 10.3% 32

9 Austin Martin 34 D — WARM 181 0.090 87.1 5.2% 3.9%vs RHP 394 3.1% 20.0% 7.3% 22

vs Dean Kremer · RHP 2.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.49 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 69 C+ +255 · 2 0.294 93.3 11.7% 43.1%vs RHP 402 22.8% 15.4% 36.5% 29

2 Bryce Harper 61 C+ +425 COOL 13 0.242 90.2 9.2% 35.6%vs RHP 403 19.3% 23.1% 33.9% 28

3 Brandon Marsh 46 D +950 · 87 0.167 89.7 8.0% 20.6%vs RHP 391 12.6% 9.1% 11.9% 35

4 Trea Turner 43 D — COOL 119 0.151 88.4 6.9% 20.6%vs RHP 392 13.8% 8.3% 10.5% 40

5 Bryson Stott 41 D +625 COOL 130 0.150 89.5 6.9% 9.1%vs RHP 389 7.9% 7.7% 9.1% 39

6 Alec Bohm 39 D +850 WARM 149 0.130 90.4 6.4% 13.7%vs RHP 396 10.5% 0.0% 8.3% 43

7 J.T. Realmuto 35 D +850 COOL 175 0.125 89.8 6.0% 17.1%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 31

8 Justin Crawford 29 D — WARM 199 0.087 87.2 3.4% 4.5%vs RHP 382 2.3% 0.0% 7.4% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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