⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Freddie Freeman 4 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 8 Wenceel Pérez 4 HRs · 9 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 10 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 11 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 12 James Wood 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Freddie Freeman 4 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 8 Wenceel Pérez 4 HRs · 9 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 10 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 11 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 12 James Wood 4 HRs

Slate · 2026-03-29

↩ today 🧙 Morning Wizard 🎲 Build Card
193 scored matchups · top 5 preview · upgrade for full slate Lineups loading…
2026-03-29
Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather
📦 STACK Shane Baz FIP 4.37 HR/FB 15.6% → #1 Byron Buxton, #2 Matt Wallner, #4 Kody Clemens, #8 Josh Bell
📦 STACK Bailey Ober FIP 4.9 HR/FB 12.6% → #5 Pete Alonso, #12 Taylor Ward
📦 STACK Jake Irvin FIP 5.64 HR/FB 16.9% → #6 Moisés Ballesteros, #13 Michael Busch
📦 STACK Rhett Lowder FIP 4.55 HR/FB 15.9% → #14 Trevor Story, #15 Willson Contreras
# Batter Score Edge Pitcher · Game Time Tier Hand '26 HR Form Due BP WT Hit?
1 82 · MacKenzie Gore (LHP)
TEX @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park
🟢 A
LHH vs LHP
Same-side disadvantage — L-on-L is the toughest matchup for batters
22
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls11 BBE Barrel%14.8% Avg EV94.3 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
1.0×
TEX Bullpen
HR/FB9.9% HR/91.04 FIP3.82 IP441.5
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Citizens Bank Park
Weather · Citizens Bank Park
cold air · light wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp34.0°F Wind3.4 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier-3 Note34°F, wind 3 mph SSW (out) — modifier: -3
2 76 · Eric Lauer (RHP)
ATH @ TOR · Rogers Centre
🟡 B
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
14
HOT
Form · HOT
SignalHOT Batted Balls13 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV90.9 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.2×
TOR Bullpen
HR/FB11.6% HR/91.18 FIP4.15 IP491.5
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Rogers Centre
Weather · Rogers Centre
neutral
Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 NoteDome — weather irrelevant
3
·Byron Buxton (R) 2
73 · Shane Baz (RHP)
MIN @ BAL · Camden Yards
🟡 B
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
17
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls10 BBE Barrel%12.9% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
2.0×
BAL Bullpen
HR/FB12.9% HR/91.14 FIP4.32 IP320.4
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Camden Yards
Weather · Camden Yards
cold air · crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp32.4°F Wind0 mph N Charactercross HR Modifier-3 Note32°F, wind 0 mph N (cross) — modifier: -3
4
·Pete Alonso (R) 2
73 · Bailey Ober (RHP)
MIN @ BAL · Camden Yards
🟡 B
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
12
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%14.3% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.0×
MIN Bullpen
HR/FB7.6% HR/90.80 FIP3.81 IP259.5
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Camden Yards
Weather · Camden Yards
cold air · crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp32.4°F Wind0 mph N Charactercross HR Modifier-3 Note32°F, wind 0 mph N (cross) — modifier: -3
5 73 · Grant Holmes (RHP)
KC @ ATL · Truist Park
🟡 B
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
9
HOT
Form · HOT
SignalHOT Batted Balls14 BBE Barrel%12.2% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
1.2×
ATL Bullpen
HR/FB13.0% HR/91.36 FIP4.26 IP380.6
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Truist Park
Weather · Truist Park
cold air · steady crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp45.5°F Wind8.1 mph E Charactercross HR Modifier-2 Note46°F, wind 8 mph E (cross) — modifier: -2
6
·Nick Kurtz (L) 3
70 · Eric Lauer (RHP)
ATH @ TOR · Rogers Centre
🟡 B
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
11
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls10 BBE Barrel%12.2% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.0×
TOR Bullpen
HR/FB11.6% HR/91.18 FIP4.15 IP491.5
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Rogers Centre
Weather · Rogers Centre
neutral
Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 NoteDome — weather irrelevant
7 70 · Seth Lugo (RHP)
KC @ ATL · Truist Park
🟡 B
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
13
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
2.5×
KC Bullpen
HR/FB11.1% HR/91.01 FIP4.02 IP531.2
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Truist Park
Weather · Truist Park
cold air · steady crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp45.5°F Wind8.1 mph E Charactercross HR Modifier-2 Note46°F, wind 8 mph E (cross) — modifier: -2
Drake Baldwin — Home Run
OffSeth Lugo Exit Velo107.6 mph Angle24.0° Distance396 ft StadiumTruist Park
8 69 · Jesús Luzardo (LHP)
TEX @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park
🔵 C+
LHH vs LHP
Same-side disadvantage — L-on-L is the toughest matchup for batters
7
HOT
Form · HOT
SignalHOT Batted Balls15 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV92.9 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
2.0×
PHI Bullpen
HR/FB12.7% HR/91.31 FIP4.19 IP402.9
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Citizens Bank Park
Weather · Citizens Bank Park
cold air · light wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp34.0°F Wind3.4 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier-3 Note34°F, wind 3 mph SSW (out) — modifier: -3
9 68 · Rhett Lowder (RHP)
BOS @ CIN · Great American Ball Park
🔵 C+
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
6
COOL
Form · COOL
SignalCOOL Batted Balls17 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
7.0×
CIN Bullpen
HR/FB11.2% HR/91.11 FIP4.20 IP491.5
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Great American Ball Park
Weather · Great American Ball Park
cold air · light wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp36.2°F Wind6.9 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier-3 Note36°F, wind 7 mph SSE (out) — modifier: -3
Wilyer Abreu — Home Run
OffRhett Lowder Exit Velo98.0 mph Angle29.0° Distance385 ft StadiumGreat American Ball Park
10
Ian Happ (S) 3
68 · Jake Irvin (RHP)
WSH @ CHC · Wrigley Field
🔵 C+
SHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
13
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls15 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.8×
WSH Bullpen
HR/FB14.0% HR/91.48 FIP5.16 IP428.6
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Wrigley Field
Weather · Wrigley Field
cold air · steady crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp42.6°F Wind10.4 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier-3 Note43°F, wind 10 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: -3
Ian Happ — Home Run
OffJake Irvin Exit Velo99.8 mph Angle29.0° Distance361 ft StadiumWrigley Field
11
·Trevor Story (R) 2
67 · Rhett Lowder (RHP)
BOS @ CIN · Great American Ball Park
🔵 C+
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
3
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%8.7% Avg EV91.4 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.2×
CIN Bullpen
HR/FB11.2% HR/91.11 FIP4.20 IP491.5
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Great American Ball Park
Weather · Great American Ball Park
cold air · light wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp36.2°F Wind6.9 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier-3 Note36°F, wind 7 mph SSE (out) — modifier: -3
12 67 · Seth Lugo (RHP)
KC @ ATL · Truist Park
🔵 C+
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
13
HOT
Form · HOT
SignalHOT Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
1.0×
KC Bullpen
HR/FB11.1% HR/91.01 FIP4.02 IP531.2
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Truist Park
Weather · Truist Park
cold air · steady crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp45.5°F Wind8.1 mph E Charactercross HR Modifier-2 Note46°F, wind 8 mph E (cross) — modifier: -2
13 65 · Shane Baz (RHP)
MIN @ BAL · Camden Yards
🔵 C+
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
4
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls14 BBE Barrel%11.5% Avg EV91.0 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
4.0×
BAL Bullpen
HR/FB12.9% HR/91.14 FIP4.32 IP320.4
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Camden Yards
Weather · Camden Yards
cold air · crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp32.4°F Wind0 mph N Charactercross HR Modifier-3 Note32°F, wind 0 mph N (cross) — modifier: -3
14
·Taylor Ward (R) 2
65 · Bailey Ober (RHP)
MIN @ BAL · Camden Yards
🔵 C+
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
2
COOL
Form · COOL
SignalCOOL Batted Balls9 BBE Barrel%12.2% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
·
MIN Bullpen
HR/FB7.6% HR/90.80 FIP3.81 IP259.5
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Camden Yards
Weather · Camden Yards
cold air · crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp32.4°F Wind0 mph N Charactercross HR Modifier-3 Note32°F, wind 0 mph N (cross) — modifier: -3
15 64 · Luis Morales (RHP)
ATH @ TOR · Rogers Centre
🔵 C+
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
5
NTRL
Form · NTRL
SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%13.2% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
1.8×
ATH Bullpen
HR/FB9.9% HR/91.10 FIP4.54 IP365.2
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Rogers Centre
Weather · Rogers Centre
neutral
Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 NoteDome — weather irrelevant
George Springer — Home Run
OffLuis Morales Exit Velo99.6 mph Angle38.0° Distance362 ft StadiumRogers Centre
16 64 · Shane Baz (RHP)
MIN @ BAL · Camden Yards
🔵 C+
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
3
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%9.1% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.3×
BAL Bullpen
HR/FB12.9% HR/91.14 FIP4.32 IP320.4
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Camden Yards
Weather · Camden Yards
cold air · crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp32.4°F Wind0 mph N Charactercross HR Modifier-3 Note32°F, wind 0 mph N (cross) — modifier: -3
Royce Lewis — Home Run
OffShane Baz Exit Velo98.2 mph Angle27.0° Distance377 ft StadiumCamden Yards
17 64 · Slade Cecconi (RHP)
CLE @ SEA · T-Mobile Park
🔵 C+
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
7
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%13.2% Avg EV92.3 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.1×
CLE Bullpen
HR/FB7.3% HR/90.72 FIP3.36 IP496.6
Vulnerable Avg Tough
T-Mobile Park
Weather · T-Mobile Park
cold air · light wind in · retractable roof
Roofretractable Temp43.6°F Wind3.4 mph SE Characterin HR Modifier-3 Note44°F, wind 3 mph SE (in) — modifier: -3
18 64 · Max Meyer (LHP)
COL @ MIA · loanDepot Park
🔵 C+
RHH vs LHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
4
HOT
Form · HOT
SignalHOT Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%9.2% Avg EV89.4 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.1×
MIA Bullpen
HR/FB12.5% HR/91.22 FIP4.46 IP584.6
Vulnerable Avg Tough
loanDepot Park
Weather · loanDepot Park
neutral
Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 NoteDome — weather irrelevant
19 63 · Max Meyer (LHP)
COL @ MIA · loanDepot Park
🔵 C+
RHH vs LHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
15
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.0×
MIA Bullpen
HR/FB12.5% HR/91.22 FIP4.46 IP584.6
Vulnerable Avg Tough
loanDepot Park
Weather · loanDepot Park
neutral
Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 NoteDome — weather irrelevant
20 63 · Luis Morales (RHP)
ATH @ TOR · Rogers Centre
🔵 C+
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
5
COLD
Form · COLD
SignalCOLD Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%13.2% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
1.1×
ATH Bullpen
HR/FB9.9% HR/91.10 FIP4.54 IP365.2
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Rogers Centre
Weather · Rogers Centre
neutral
Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 NoteDome — weather irrelevant
21 63 · Slade Cecconi (RHP)
CLE @ SEA · T-Mobile Park
🔵 C+
SHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
7
COOL
Form · COOL
SignalCOOL Batted Balls11 BBE Barrel%15.4% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
7.3×
CLE Bullpen
HR/FB7.3% HR/90.72 FIP3.36 IP496.6
Vulnerable Avg Tough
T-Mobile Park
Weather · T-Mobile Park
cold air · light wind in · retractable roof
Roofretractable Temp43.6°F Wind3.4 mph SE Characterin HR Modifier-3 Note44°F, wind 3 mph SE (in) — modifier: -3
22 62 · Bailey Ober (RHP)
MIN @ BAL · Camden Yards
🔵 C+
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
6
HOT
Form · HOT
SignalHOT Batted Balls15 BBE Barrel%9.0% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise BarrelYes
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
11.0×
MIN Bullpen
HR/FB7.6% HR/90.80 FIP3.81 IP259.5
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Camden Yards
Weather · Camden Yards
cold air · crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp32.4°F Wind0 mph N Charactercross HR Modifier-3 Note32°F, wind 0 mph N (cross) — modifier: -3
23 61 · Seth Lugo (RHP)
KC @ ATL · Truist Park
🔵 C+
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
7
COLD
Form · COLD
SignalCOLD Batted Balls9 BBE Barrel%13.2% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
1.0×
KC Bullpen
HR/FB11.1% HR/91.01 FIP4.02 IP531.2
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Truist Park
Weather · Truist Park
cold air · steady crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp45.5°F Wind8.1 mph E Charactercross HR Modifier-2 Note46°F, wind 8 mph E (cross) — modifier: -2
24
·Michael Busch (L) 4
61 · Jake Irvin (RHP)
WSH @ CHC · Wrigley Field
🔵 C+
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
6
COLD
Form · COLD
SignalCOLD Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%14.3% Avg EV92.2 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
1.2×
WSH Bullpen
HR/FB14.0% HR/91.48 FIP5.16 IP428.6
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Wrigley Field
Weather · Wrigley Field
cold air · steady crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp42.6°F Wind10.4 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier-3 Note43°F, wind 10 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: -3
25 61 · Dustin May (RHP)
TB @ STL · Busch Stadium
🔵 C+
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
14
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls15 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.3×
STL Bullpen
HR/FB9.1% HR/90.77 FIP3.72 IP430.5
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Busch Stadium
Weather · Busch Stadium
cold air · light crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp44.3°F Wind7.5 mph SSE Charactercross HR Modifier-3 Note44°F, wind 8 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: -3
26
·Matt Olson (L) 2
61 · Seth Lugo (RHP)
KC @ ATL · Truist Park
🔵 C+
LHH vs RHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
17
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%12.6% Avg EV93.3 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.0×
KC Bullpen
HR/FB11.1% HR/91.01 FIP4.02 IP531.2
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Truist Park
Weather · Truist Park
cold air · steady crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp45.5°F Wind8.1 mph E Charactercross HR Modifier-2 Note46°F, wind 8 mph E (cross) — modifier: -2
27
·Jake Burger (R) 4
61 · Jesús Luzardo (LHP)
TEX @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park
🔵 C+
RHH vs LHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
10
WARM
Form · WARM
SignalWARM Batted Balls17 BBE Barrel%9.6% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
2.7×
PHI Bullpen
HR/FB12.7% HR/91.31 FIP4.19 IP402.9
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Citizens Bank Park
Weather · Citizens Bank Park
cold air · light wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp34.0°F Wind3.4 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier-3 Note34°F, wind 3 mph SSW (out) — modifier: -3
28
Alex Bregman (R) 3
60 · Jake Irvin (RHP)
WSH @ CHC · Wrigley Field
🔵 C+
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
5
HOT
Form · HOT
SignalHOT Batted Balls15 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise BarrelYes
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.1×
WSH Bullpen
HR/FB14.0% HR/91.48 FIP5.16 IP428.6
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Wrigley Field
Weather · Wrigley Field
cold air · steady crosswind · roof open
Roofopen Temp42.6°F Wind10.4 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier-3 Note43°F, wind 10 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: -3
Alex Bregman — Home Run
OffJake Irvin Exit Velo102.7 mph Angle31.0° Distance377 ft StadiumWrigley Field
29
·Brent Rooker (R) 3
60 · Eric Lauer (RHP)
ATH @ TOR · Rogers Centre
🔵 C+
RHH vs RHP
Same-side neutral — R-on-R is common, less punishing than L-on-L
8
HOT
Form · HOT
SignalHOT Batted Balls14 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
0.2×
TOR Bullpen
HR/FB11.6% HR/91.18 FIP4.15 IP491.5
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Rogers Centre
Weather · Rogers Centre
neutral
Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 NoteDome — weather irrelevant
30 60 · Connelly Early (LHP)
BOS @ CIN · Great American Ball Park
🔵 C+
SHH vs LHP
Platoon advantage — batter sees the ball better from the opposite side
12
HOT
Form · HOT
SignalHOT Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%6.7% Avg EV91.0 mph Surprise Barrel
Based on rolling 14-day Statcast window vs season avg.
HOT = barrel% ≥ 1.5× season · COLD = barrel% ≤ 0.6× season
1.4×
BOS Bullpen
HR/FB6.4% HR/90.58 FIP3.29 IP473.7
Vulnerable Avg Tough
Great American Ball Park
Weather · Great American Ball Park
cold air · light wind out · roof open
Roofopen Temp36.2°F Wind6.9 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier-3 Note36°F, wind 7 mph SSE (out) — modifier: -3
🔥

The full lineup is in the hole

Sign up to see every ranked matchup with scores, tiers, pitcher intel, and conviction tools. Pro gets 150+ batters daily.

188 more waiting in the on-deck circle
Model Health · HR catch rate by tier
season-to-date
S 0.0%
A+ 17.2%
A 18.5%
B 20.0%
C+ 15.2%
C 12.3%
D 7.8%
Best Day
32.0%
May 29
LD 3.2.91

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.