16
HRs allowed
11.5%
HR rate (pool)
13.8%
Overall HR/FB
4.53
FIP
4.28
xFIP
+0.25
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
62
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 62th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
68.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.1 EV · 396 ft
max EV allowed 114.6
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 7 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Connelly Early.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
35.1%
83.1
34.5°
6
-0.2
Sinker Hard
19.9%
81.6
10.8°
1
-0.5
Changeup Offspeed
18.3%
85.4
3.6°
3
+0.2
Curveball Breaking
10.9%
83.3
8.1°
3
+3.9
Slider Breaking
8.0%
85.2
16.1°
2
-0.5
Sweeper Breaking
7.9%
79.1
19.4°
0
-2.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups139
HRs allowed (pool)16
Pool HR rate11.5%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups8
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB13.8% 62
HR/9—
FIP4.53 67
xFIP4.28
FIP − xFIP+0.25 63
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed68.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 35.1% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle34.5°
HRs allowed6
Pitches536
Sinker
Hard · 19.9% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.6 mph
Avg launch angle10.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches304
Changeup
Offspeed · 18.3% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.4 mph
Avg launch angle3.6°
HRs allowed3
Pitches279
Curveball
Breaking · 10.9% usage
+3.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.3 mph
Avg launch angle8.1°
HRs allowed3
Pitches166
Slider
Breaking · 8.0% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.2 mph
Avg launch angle16.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches123
Sweeper
Breaking · 7.9% usage
-2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.1 mph
Avg launch angle19.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches120
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Connelly Early.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
16 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.1 EV · 396 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-30
9
1
109.0
2026-06-25
8
1
109.3
2026-06-20
7
0
110.4
2026-06-14
8
2
106.8
2026-06-08
9
1
102.5
2026-06-02
9
2
110.8
2026-05-27
9
0
108.9
2026-05-20
9
1
113.3
2026-05-15
9
2
110.7
2026-05-08
9
0
109.0
2026-05-02
9
2
111.4
2026-04-26
9
2
109.6
2026-04-21
9
1
111.5
2026-04-10
8
0
114.6
2026-04-04
9
0
113.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Connelly Early isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.