⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Freddie Freeman 4 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 8 Wenceel Pérez 4 HRs · 9 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 10 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 11 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 12 James Wood 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Freddie Freeman 4 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 8 Wenceel Pérez 4 HRs · 9 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 10 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 11 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 12 James Wood 4 HRs
TB
@
STL
Busch Stadium · 17 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.93×
Weather Mod
-3.0%
cold air · light crosswind · roof open
Combined
0.651
Temp
44.3°F
Wind
7.5 mph
cross
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Junior Caminero Junior Caminero 61 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 25 0.271 92.4 11.3% 24.5% 392 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 15
2 Yandy Díaz Yandy Díaz 50 🟠 C · 🔥 HOT 75 0.182 93.0 8.7% 18.2% 379 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 28
3 Jonathan Aranda Jonathan Aranda 49 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 81 0.173 93.0 10.8% 14.7% 398 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 20
4 Carson Williams Carson Williams 47 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 93 0.182 85.9 9.0% 31.3% 394 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 16
5 Richie Palacios Richie Palacios 40 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 134 0.102 89.9 7.4% 10.7% 379 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 10
6 Cedric Mullins Cedric Mullins 38 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 146 0.175 88.8 7.5% 10.8% 384 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 17
7 Jake Fraley Jake Fraley 38 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 147 0.141 85.2 6.7% 10.2% 393 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 14
8 Hunter Feduccia Hunter Feduccia 28 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 180 0.057 87.6 8.7% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 4
9 Chandler Simpson Chandler Simpson 15 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 193 0.051 84.3 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 22
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Alec Burleson Alec Burleson 52 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 64 0.169 91.0 7.7% 10.2% 408 50.0% 50.0% 9.4% 20
2 Iván Herrera Iván Herrera 42 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 125 0.180 91.2 8.3% 19.4% 407 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 14
3 Jordan Walker Jordan Walker 35 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 165 0.091 92.3 8.3% 6.6% 415 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 15
4 Ramón Urías Ramón Urías 32 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 169 0.142 89.2 7.1% 10.7% 381 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 7
5 Pedro Pagés Pedro Pagés 25 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 182 0.133 88.0 6.8% 11.0% 400 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 12
6 Thomas Saggese Thomas Saggese 24 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 185 0.084 90.2 5.9% 3.2% 411 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 7
7 Masyn Winn Masyn Winn 23 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 188 0.110 88.3 5.5% 5.7% 388 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 15
8 Victor Scott II Victor Scott II 15 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 192 0.080 86.1 4.8% 4.9% 397 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 18
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.91

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.