BOS
@
—
CIN
Park Factor
1.18×
Weather Mod
-3.0%
cold air · light wind out · roof open
Combined
0.826
Temp
36.2°F
Wind
6.9 mph
out
Roof
open
Rhett Lowder
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Wilyer Abreu | 68 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌧️ COOL | 9 | 0.223 | 90.8 | 9.7% | 15.2% | 400 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 18.3% | 17 |
| 2 |
|
Trevor Story | 67 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 11 | 0.170 | 91.4 | 8.7% | 15.2% | 388 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 18.3% | 20 |
| 3 |
|
Roman Anthony | 58 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 33 | 0.171 | 94.5 | 10.9% | 14.8% | 406 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.1% | 14 |
| 4 |
|
Marcelo Mayer ⚡ | 56 | 🟠 C | · | 🔥 HOT | 43 | 0.173 | 90.0 | 8.4% | 13.8% | 404 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.5% | 18 |
| 5 |
|
Jarren Duran | 55 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 50 | 0.185 | 91.8 | 8.6% | 9.0% | 401 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.1% | 16 |
| 6 |
|
Willson Contreras ⚡ | 49 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 78 | 0.190 | 90.6 | 10.3% | 15.2% | 407 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.3% | 14 |
| 7 |
|
Caleb Durbin | 43 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 121 | 0.130 | 85.2 | 5.5% | 7.3% | 390 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.7% | 24 |
| 8 |
|
Masataka Yoshida ⚡ | 37 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 156 | 0.122 | 90.2 | 7.1% | 10.5% | 383 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.2% | 14 |
| 9 |
|
Connor Wong | 29 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 178 | 0.048 | 85.5 | 4.9% | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 9 |
Connelly Early
LHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Elly De La Cruz | 60 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🔥 HOT | 30 | 0.176 | 91.0 | 6.7% | 0.0% | 405 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 2.2% | 18 |
| 2 |
|
Sal Stewart | 58 | 🟠 C | · | · | 38 | 0.291 | 95.4 | 8.8% | 0.0% | 410 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.2% | 24 |
| 3 |
|
Eugenio Suárez | 54 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 56 | 0.298 | 90.2 | 7.9% | 0.0% | 404 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 10 |
| 4 |
|
Spencer Steer ⚡ | 49 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 84 | 0.173 | 87.3 | 5.8% | 0.0% | 388 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 20 |
| 5 |
|
Tyler Stephenson | 48 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 91 | 0.191 | 90.5 | 8.0% | 0.0% | 387 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 12 |
| 6 |
|
Noelvi Marte | 48 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 92 | 0.186 | 88.5 | 6.3% | 0.0% | 406 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 14 |
| 7 |
|
Matt McLain | 44 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 119 | 0.124 | 88.8 | 5.8% | 0.0% | 391 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 21 |
| 8 |
|
TJ Friedl | 37 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 160 | 0.117 | 87.1 | 3.5% | 0.0% | 385 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 16 |
| 9 |
|
Dane Myers | 28 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 181 | 0.091 | 90.7 | 5.9% | 0.0% | 398 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 12 |