KC
@
—
ATL
Park Factor
1.04×
Weather Mod
-2.0%
cold air · steady crosswind · roof open
Combined
0.832
Temp
45.5°F
Wind
8.1 mph
cross
Roof
open
Grant Holmes
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Salvador Perez | 73 | 🟡 B | · | 🔥 HOT | 5 | 0.209 | 90.0 | 12.2% | 13.8% | 399 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 14.9% | 14 |
| 2 |
|
Carter Jensen | 58 | 🟠 C | · | ❄ COLD | 34 | 0.250 | 95.4 | 14.5% | 18.8% | 411 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.3% | 14 |
| 3 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 53 | 🟠 C | · | · | 59 | 0.205 | 93.3 | 11.2% | 10.6% | 411 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.0% | 12 | |
| 4 |
|
Vinnie Pasquantino | 50 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 74 | 0.211 | 90.9 | 10.4% | 14.3% | 399 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.1% | 16 |
| 5 |
|
Maikel Garcia | 46 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 106 | 0.163 | 91.3 | 7.5% | 8.3% | 399 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.5% | 11 |
| 6 |
|
Jac Caglianone | 45 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 109 | 0.138 | 89.4 | 11.0% | 13.0% | 412 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.4% | 7 |
| 7 |
|
Lane Thomas | 43 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 123 | 0.112 | 87.8 | 7.0% | 9.3% | 369 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.2% | 12 |
| 8 |
|
Nick Loftin | 38 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 149 | 0.149 | 88.2 | 8.0% | 6.3% | 393 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 12 |
| 9 |
|
Kyle Isbel | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 171 | 0.098 | 87.8 | 4.0% | 4.0% | 393 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 13 |
Seth Lugo
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Drake Baldwin | 70 | 🟡 B | · | 🌤️ WARM | 7 | 0.195 | 91.7 | 11.1% | 18.1% | 398 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 17.4% | 19 |
| 2 | Michael Harris II | 67 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🔥 HOT | 12 | 0.160 | 90.2 | 10.1% | 12.5% | 411 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 14.4% | 21 | |
| 3 |
|
Ronald Acuña Jr. | 61 | 🔵 C+ | · | ❄ COLD | 23 | 0.228 | 92.7 | 13.2% | 23.1% | 419 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.6% | 9 |
| 4 |
|
Matt Olson | 61 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 26 | 0.212 | 93.3 | 12.6% | 16.0% | 407 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.3% | 18 |
| 5 |
|
Dominic Smith | 55 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 52 | 0.132 | 87.7 | 6.8% | 8.3% | 396 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 11.8% | 16 |
| 6 |
|
Austin Riley | 51 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 67 | 0.168 | 92.3 | 13.0% | 12.4% | 413 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.4% | 19 |
| 7 |
|
Ozzie Albies | 49 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 83 | 0.124 | 87.5 | 7.4% | 7.2% | 380 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 10.9% | 20 |
| 8 |
|
Mike Yastrzemski | 46 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 104 | 0.170 | 90.8 | 9.7% | 9.6% | 388 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.7% | 10 |
| 9 |
|
Jorge Mateo | 41 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 131 | 0.089 | 85.3 | 6.8% | 5.3% | 396 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.4% | 13 |