Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-22T11:00:41-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
4
Edges That Hit HR
13%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-22
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 💥 | Ben Rice | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +6.4 | +0.0 | 48% | 15 | 5 | #7 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Braydon Fisher | Slider | +4.4 | -0.5 | 50% | 3 | 4 | #146 | |
| · | Ezequiel Tovar | Cade Cavalli | Knuckle Curve | +8.1 | -0.4 | 27% | 1 | 2 | #157 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Eric Lauer | Fastball | +3.8 | -0.2 | 44% | 11 | 10 | #13 | |
| 💥 | Ceddanne Rafaela | Dean Kremer | Splitter | +6.8 | -1.1 | 33% | 0 | 2 | #156 | |
| · | Esmerlyn Valdez | Gerrit Cole | Fastball | +3.8 | -1.2 | 45% | 4 | 3 | #2 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Christian Scott | Fastball | +1.9 | +0.2 | 49% | 5 | 5 | #16 | |
| · | Kyle Tucker | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +6.3 | -1.2 | 34% | 0 | 6 | #112 | |
| · | Christian Yelich | Christian Scott | Splitter | +10.1 | +2.4 | 4% | 1 | 0 | #192 | |
| · | Esmerlyn Valdez | Gerrit Cole | Slider | +8.3 | +0.0 | 20% | 4 | 2 | #2 | |
| · | James Wood | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +2.4 | -2.3 | 54% | 11 | 0 | #8 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Emerson Hancock | Cutter | +10.7 | -0.9 | 12% | 3 | 2 | #50 | |
| · | Chandler Simpson | Braydon Fisher | Slider | +1.9 | -0.5 | 50% | 1 | 4 | #263 | |
| · | Ty France | Martin Perez | Changeup | +6.1 | -0.6 | 30% | 1 | 4 | #11 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Kyle Bradish | Sinker | +5.9 | -1.0 | 33% | 9 | 2 | #20 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +2.1 | -2.3 | 54% | 4 | 0 | #22 | |
| · | Spencer Jones | Mitch Keller | Cutter | +8.8 | +2.5 | 7% | 1 | 2 | #101 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Eric Lauer | Fastball | +2.5 | -0.2 | 44% | 10 | 10 | #1 | |
| 💥 | Ben Rice | Mitch Keller | Fastball | +6.4 | -1.4 | 32% | 15 | 1 | #6 | |
| · | Vaughn Grissom | Hunter Dobbins | Sweeper | +7.4 | +2.5 | 13% | 2 | 1 | #165 | |
| · | Starling Marte | Landen Roupp | Sinker | +4.5 | -0.3 | 36% | 1 | 5 | #247 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +1.7 | -2.3 | 54% | 5 | 0 | #124 | |
| · | Colt Keith | Colin Rea | Curveball | +6.1 | +6.1 | 5% | 0 | 1 | #125 | |
| · | Shohei Ohtani | Aaron Nola | Sinker | +5.4 | +2.7 | 20% | 7 | 8 | #3 | |
| · | Bryan Reynolds | Gerrit Cole | Fastball | +2.7 | -1.2 | 45% | 6 | 3 | #62 | |
| · | Jonathan Aranda | Braydon Fisher | Slider | +1.1 | -0.5 | 50% | 3 | 4 | #82 | |
| · | Randy Arozarena | Brady Singer | Sinker | +1.0 | +0.2 | 48% | 0 | 10 | #102 | |
| 💥 | Gabriel Moreno | Gage Jump | Fastball | +1.5 | -0.8 | 49% | 4 | 2 | #230 | |
| · | Dillon Dingler | Colin Rea | Fastball | +1.5 | +0.9 | 42% | 6 | 5 | #14 | |
| · | Brandon Lowe | Gerrit Cole | Fastball | +2.5 | -1.2 | 45% | 9 | 3 | #41 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+32.8 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.3 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+22.1 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.