TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ BAL

Suppressed air · 0.69×

TOR @ BAL

Camden Yards · 1:35p · 26 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 12 mph in 63°F Roof open

Hourly window

-12 ↑

1:35p

-11 ↑

2:35p

-11 ↑

3:35p

-11 ↑

4:35p

-10 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 5:35p window peaks -10

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 38 · vs Scherzer ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 35 · vs Proxy → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Max Scherzer RHP · TOR

leak 91

1.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso — C+ ●●●●●

2 Coby Mayo — C+ ●●●●○

3 Gunnar Henderson — C ●●●○○

FADE TOR Bullpen Proxy · TOR

leak 45

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso — C+ ●●●●●

2 Coby Mayo — C+ ●●●●○

3 Gunnar Henderson — D ●●●○○

FADE BAL Bullpen Proxy

leak 34

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto — C+ ●●●●○

2 Kazuma Okamoto — C+ ●●●●○

3 George Springer — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: Match 33.6% · 14D pace 41.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Scherzer — 0.244 · 93.9 · 11.2% 41.7% 33.6% F B O C+ 69

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Proxy — 0.244 · 93.9 · 14.7% 41.7% 27.6% F B O C+ 69

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Scherzer — 0.239 · 91.3 · 10.8% 25.0% 27.5% F B O C+ 63

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Proxy — 0.239 · 91.3 · 13.5% 25.0% 25.3% F B O C+ 62

· — Kazuma Okamoto vs Proxy — 0.223 · 90.6 · 13.2% 25.0% 22.4% F B O C+ 62

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Scherzer Edge — 0.181 · 89.2 · 8.2% 16.7% 17.1% F B O C 51

· BAL Samuel Basallo vs Scherzer Edge — 0.184 · 90.4 · 10.2% 11.1% 14.6% F B O C 53

· BAL Samuel Basallo vs Proxy — 0.184 · 90.4 · 12.1% 11.1% 13.1% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 17 long shots

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Proxy — 0.181 · 89.2 · 7.8% 16.7% 16.1% F B O D 47

· — George Springer COOL vs Proxy — 0.157 · 88.4 · 6.4% 10.0% 8.5% F B O D 41

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Scherzer Edge — 0.141 · 87.9 · 9.1% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 46

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Proxy — 0.141 · 87.9 · 9.7% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 42

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Scherzer Edge — 0.123 · 88.0 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 37

· — Nathan Lukes COOL vs Proxy — 0.112 · 86.8 · 2.6% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 30

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Proxy — 0.123 · 88.0 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 31

· — Vladimir Guerrero vs Proxy — 0.096 · 90.5 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 34

· — Andres Gimenez COOL vs Proxy — 0.113 · 85.3 · 3.2% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 27

· — Ernie Clement vs Proxy — 0.106 · 84.1 · 2.1% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 27

· — Myles Straw COOL vs Proxy — 0.106 · 86.1 · 2.8% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Max Scherzer — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for TOR Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for BAL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Henderson Alonso Mayo Henderson Okamoto Okamoto

Legend

attack side — vs Scherzer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 6

Pete Alonso — · 69

Coby Mayo — · 63

Coby Mayo — · 62

Kazuma Okamoto — · 62

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 12 mph in 63°F open

-12

↑

12 mph · in

60°F

1:35p

-11

↑

11 mph · in

62°F

2:35p

-11

↑

11 mph · in

62°F

3:35p

-11

↑

10 mph · in

63°F

4:35p

-10

↑

9 mph · in

62°F

5:35p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.69× 63°F, wind 12 mph ENE (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Max Scherzer · RHP 1.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 69 C+ — WARM 5 0.244 93.9 11.2% 33.3%vs RHP 400 22.9% 41.7% 33.6% 30

2 Coby Mayo 63 C+ — WARM 14 0.239 91.3 10.8% 16.7%vs RHP 411 17.9% 25.0% 27.5% 32

3 Samuel Basallo 53 C — WARM 57 0.184 90.4 10.2% 26.7%vs RHP 400 13.5% 11.1% 14.6% 18

4 Gunnar Henderson 51 C — WARM 70 0.181 89.2 8.2% 16.9%vs RHP 392 14.2% 16.7% 17.1% 27

5 Colton Cowser 46 D — COOL 111 0.141 87.9 9.1% 20.3%vs RHP 412 13.5% 0.0% 9.3% 14

6 Leody Taveras 37 D — COOL 180 0.123 88.0 5.8% 11.7%vs RHP 403 4.4% 0.0% 7.7% 17

vs TOR Bullpen Proxy 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 69 C+ — WARM 10 0.244 93.9 14.7% 26.1% 400 22.9% 41.7% 27.6% 30

2 Coby Mayo 62 C+ — WARM 26 0.239 91.3 13.5% 20.2% 411 17.9% 25.0% 25.3% 32

3 Samuel Basallo 51 C — WARM 96 0.184 90.4 12.1% 21.2% 400 13.5% 11.1% 13.1% 18

4 Gunnar Henderson 47 D — WARM 130 0.181 89.2 7.8% 15.9% 392 14.2% 16.7% 16.1% 27

5 Colton Cowser 42 D — COOL 165 0.141 87.9 9.7% 17.3% 412 13.5% 0.0% 8.6% 14

6 Leody Taveras 31 D — COOL 224 0.123 88.0 3.9% 7.8% 403 4.4% 0.0% 6.9% 17

vs BAL Bullpen Proxy 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 14 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 62 C+ — · 27 0.223 90.6 13.2% 20.0% 400 19.4% 25.0% 22.4% 30

2 Kazuma Okamoto 62 C+ — · 28 0.223 90.6 13.2% 20.0% 400 19.4% 25.0% 22.4% 30

3 George Springer 41 D — COOL 174 0.157 88.4 6.4% 12.6% 394 10.9% 10.0% 8.5% 31

4 George Springer 41 D — COOL 175 0.157 88.4 6.4% 12.6% 394 10.9% 10.0% 8.5% 31

5 Vladimir Guerrero 34 D — WARM 211 0.096 90.5 7.0% 7.6% 402 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 28

6 Vladimir Guerrero 34 D — WARM 212 0.096 90.5 7.0% 7.6% 402 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 28

7 Nathan Lukes 30 D — COOL 225 0.112 86.8 2.6% 11.9% 382 7.3% 0.0% 7.0% 26

8 Nathan Lukes 30 D — COOL 226 0.112 86.8 2.6% 11.9% 382 7.3% 0.0% 7.0% 26

9 Myles Straw 28 D — COOL 227 0.106 86.1 2.8% 3.3% 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 20

10 Myles Straw 28 D — COOL 228 0.106 86.1 2.8% 3.3% 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 20

11 Andres Gimenez 27 D — COOL 229 0.113 85.3 3.2% 7.5% 389 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 28

12 Andres Gimenez 27 D — COOL 230 0.113 85.3 3.2% 7.5% 389 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 28

13 Ernie Clement 27 D — WARM 231 0.106 84.1 2.1% 4.5% 376 6.2% 0.0% 6.2% 35

14 Ernie Clement 27 D — WARM 232 0.106 84.1 2.1% 4.5% 376 6.2% 0.0% 6.2% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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