TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ ATL

Playable air · 1.06×

CIN @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 7 mph cross 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

7:15p

-2 ↑

8:15p

-2 ↑

9:15p

-3 ↑

10:15p

-3 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at -2

Best of game Matt Olson conv 26 · vs Abbott ⟷ Elly De La Cruz conv 32 · vs Sale → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Andrew Abbott LHP · CIN

leak 80

1.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson — C+ ●●●●○

2 Mike Yastrzemski — C ●●●●○

3 Drake Baldwin — C ●●○○○

FADE Chris Sale LHP · ATL

leak 22

0.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · stingy — thin edge

1 Elly De La Cruz — C+ ●●●●●

2 Dane Myers — D ●●●○○

3 Eugenio Suarez — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 27.9% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz HOT vs Sale Edge — 0.233 · 94.7 · 10.0% 33.3% 30.3% F B O C+ 61

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Abbott — 0.251 · 92.4 · 10.8% 25.0% 27.9% F B O C+ 68

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Abbott — 0.162 · 90.3 · 7.3% 28.6% 18.4% F B O C 50

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Abbott — 0.174 · 91.4 · 10.1% 16.7% 14.4% F B O C 56

· ATL Ronald Acuna COOL vs Abbott Edge — 0.203 · 89.6 · 10.1% 0.0% 24.3% F B O C 53

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Sale Edge — 0.201 · 90.4 · 8.8% 8.3% 14.0% F B O C 51

· ATL Michael Harris vs Abbott — 0.196 · 90.3 · 8.9% 0.0% 14.9% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CIN Dane Myers vs Sale Edge — 0.121 · 89.3 · 5.2% 22.2% 13.2% F B O D 38

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Sale Edge — 0.219 · 88.4 · 8.5% 0.0% 25.7% F B O D 47

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Abbott Edge — 0.159 · 87.1 · 5.6% 9.1% 10.4% F B O D 45

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Abbott Edge — 0.139 · 91.2 · 9.8% 9.1% 8.5% F B O D 49

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Sale — 0.198 · 88.5 · 7.8% 0.0% 12.9% F B O D 46

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Sale Edge — 0.149 · 88.1 · 7.6% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 40

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Sale Edge — 0.166 · 91.0 · 8.7% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 44

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Abbott — 0.121 · 87.7 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 42

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Abbott Edge — 0.120 · 86.6 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Chris Sale — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Andrew Abbott — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Myers Olson Baldwin Yastrzemski

Legend

attack side — vs Abbott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Elly De La Cruz — · 61

Matt Olson — · 68

Mike Yastrzemski — · 50

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 7 mph cross 72°F open

-2

↑

7 mph · cross

72°F

7:15p · peak

-2

↑

7 mph · cross

71°F

8:15p

-2

↑

8 mph · cross

71°F

9:15p

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

71°F

10:15p

-3

↑

10 mph · cross

71°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 72°F, wind 7 mph E (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Chris Sale · LHP 0.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 61 C+ — HOT 18 0.233 94.7 10.0% 38.5%vs LHP 404 19.0% 33.3% 30.3% 27

2 Sal Stewart 51 C — WARM 74 0.201 90.4 8.8% 27.6%vs LHP 397 16.9% 8.3% 14.0% 33

3 Eugenio Suarez 47 D — WARM 97 0.219 88.4 8.5% 27.3%vs LHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 25.7% 23

4 Jj Bleday 46 D — COOL 105 0.198 88.5 7.8% 22.2%vs LHP 389 15.4% 0.0% 12.9% 27

5 Tyler Stephenson 44 D — · 128 0.166 91.0 8.7% 7.1%vs LHP 392 9.5% 0.0% 8.8% 26

6 Matt Mclain 40 D — COOL 156 0.149 88.1 7.6% 22.2%vs LHP 391 10.0% 0.0% 9.8% 17

7 Dane Myers 38 D — WARM 172 0.121 89.3 5.2% 14.3%vs LHP 383 8.2% 22.2% 13.2% 22

vs Andrew Abbott · LHP 1.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 68 C+ — · 7 0.251 92.4 10.8% 22.7%vs LHP 406 22.8% 25.0% 27.9% 40

2 Drake Baldwin 56 C — · 44 0.174 91.4 10.1% 25.9%vs LHP 401 15.3% 16.7% 14.4% 38

3 Ronald Acuna 53 C — COOL 53 0.203 89.6 10.1% 19.2%vs LHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 24.3% 37

4 Michael Harris 52 C — · 68 0.196 90.3 8.9% 24.2%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 41

5 Mike Yastrzemski 50 C — · 82 0.162 90.3 7.3% 14.3%vs LHP 386 9.1% 28.6% 18.4% 23

6 Austin Riley 49 D — COOL 88 0.139 91.2 9.8% 8.3%vs LHP 410 9.1% 9.1% 8.5% 26

7 Ozzie Albies 45 D — · 114 0.159 87.1 5.6% 13.1%vs LHP 388 12.8% 9.1% 10.4% 35

8 Dominic Smith 42 D — COOL 142 0.121 87.7 6.6% 0.0%vs LHP 392 7.8% 0.0% 8.6% 2

9 Mauricio Dubon 37 D — WARM 176 0.120 86.6 5.6% 8.7%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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