TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.74×

STL @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 9 mph in 60°F Roof open

Hourly window

-11 ↑

6:40p

-10 ↑

7:40p

-10 ↑

8:40p

-11 ↑

9:40p

-11 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 7:40p at -10

Best of game Brandon Lowe conv 33 · vs Liberatore ⟷ Alec Burleson conv 11 · vs Bachar → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Matthew Liberatore LHP · STL

leak 93

1.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.68 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brandon Lowe — C+ ●●●●●

2 Oneil Cruz — C+ ●●●●○

3 Ryan O'Hearn — D ●●○○○

FADE Lake Bachar RHP · PIT

leak 89

1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · stingy — thin edge

1 Alec Burleson — D ●●○○○

2 Ivan Herrera — D ●○○○○

3 Jordan Walker — C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: Match 26.1% · 14D pace 40.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ vs Liberatore — 0.229 · 91.0 · 10.5% 40.0% 26.1% F B O C+ 60

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Liberatore — 0.208 · 94.1 · 12.0% 25.0% 28.3% F B O C+ 60

· STL Jordan Walker HOT vs Bachar — 0.198 · 92.7 · 10.1% 0.0% 14.0% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Liberatore — 0.177 · 89.1 · 7.8% 12.5% 11.6% F B O D 45

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Bachar Edge — 0.183 · 91.8 · 9.2% 10.0% 11.6% F B O D 48

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Liberatore Edge — 0.090 · 85.8 · 4.7% 12.5% 7.4% F B O D 30

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Liberatore Edge — 0.162 · 90.9 · 10.2% 8.3% 10.1% F B O D 46

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Bachar — 0.140 · 89.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 15.2% F B O D 35

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Bachar Edge — 0.125 · 89.8 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 37

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Liberatore — 0.121 · 86.7 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 36

· STL Nolan Gorman COOL vs Bachar Edge — 0.128 · 89.4 · 8.9% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 39

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Bachar Edge — 0.122 · 85.7 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

· STL Masyn Winn COOL vs Bachar — 0.085 · 88.2 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 29

· PIT Konnor Griffin COOL vs Liberatore Edge — 0.126 · 87.8 · 7.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 37

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Bachar — 0.111 · 86.1 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 30

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Liberatore Edge — 0.066 · 86.3 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 28

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Liberatore Edge — 0.087 · 86.4 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Lake Bachar — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Matthew Liberatore — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Liberatore fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Brandon Lowe — · 60

Oneil Cruz — · 60

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.93× Wind 9 mph in 60°F open

-11

↑

9 mph · in

60°F

6:40p

-10

↑

8 mph · in

58°F

7:40p · peak

-10

↑

8 mph · in

57°F

8:40p

-11

↑

8 mph · in

57°F

9:40p

-11

↑

8 mph · in

56°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.74× 60°F, wind 9 mph E (in) — modifier: -2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Lake Bachar · RHP 1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 50 C — HOT 78 0.198 92.7 10.1% 25.3%vs RHP 406 16.2% 0.0% 14.0% 20

2 Alec Burleson 48 D — COOL 92 0.183 91.8 9.2% 22.7%vs RHP 405 14.1% 10.0% 11.6% 27

3 Nolan Gorman 39 D — COOL 164 0.128 89.4 8.9% 14.5%vs RHP 407 9.2% 0.0% 7.5% 11

4 Jj Wetherholt 37 D — COOL 181 0.125 89.8 7.6% 15.3%vs RHP 393 16.7% 0.0% 7.6% 10

5 Ivan Herrera 35 D — WARM 193 0.140 89.4 6.6% 20.7%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 25

6 Nathan Church 34 D — COOL 201 0.122 85.7 6.5% 12.7%vs RHP 386 7.0% 0.0% 7.3% 33

7 José Fermín 30 D — COOL 215 0.111 86.1 4.1% 6.1%vs RHP 390 5.2% 0.0% 7.1% 20

8 Masyn Winn 29 D — COOL 219 0.085 88.2 5.1% 7.5%vs RHP 385 3.9% 0.0% 7.3% 20

vs Matthew Liberatore · LHP 1.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.68 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz 60 C+ — COOL 21 0.208 94.1 12.0% 36.4%vs LHP 414 22.4% 25.0% 28.3% 32

2 Brandon Lowe ✶ 60 C+ — WARM 22 0.229 91.0 10.5% 18.9%vs LHP 391 18.7% 40.0% 26.1% 28

3 Bryan Reynolds 46 D — COOL 110 0.162 90.9 10.2% 15.9%vs LHP 407 10.5% 8.3% 10.1% 36

4 Ryan O'Hearn 45 D — COOL 116 0.177 89.1 7.8% 16.7%vs LHP 385 13.3% 12.5% 11.6% 23

5 Konnor Griffin 37 D — COOL 183 0.126 87.8 7.7% 7.7%vs LHP 401 4.9% 0.0% 7.2% 43

6 Spencer Horwitz 36 D — COOL 187 0.121 86.7 7.3% 8.3%vs LHP 395 8.1% 0.0% 7.6% 17

7 Jake Mangum 30 D — HOT 214 0.090 85.8 4.7% 9.5%vs LHP 394 4.8% 12.5% 7.4% 25

8 Nick Gonzales 30 D — WARM 217 0.087 86.4 5.1% 3.0%vs LHP 397 5.6% 0.0% 6.6% 26

9 Jared Triolo 28 D — COOL 221 0.066 86.3 4.7% 5.0%vs LHP 409 2.4% 0.0% 6.9% 15

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.