TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ NYY

Suppressed air · 0.77×

TB @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 10 mph in 63°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

7:05p

-7 ↑

8:05p

-7 ↑

9:05p

-7 ↑

10:05p

-6 ↑

11:05p

conditions build late — the 11:05p window peaks -6

Best of game Cody Bellinger conv 34 · vs Seymour ⟷ Jonathan Aranda conv 21 · vs Cole → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Ian Seymour LHP · TB

leak 98

1.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.82 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cody Bellinger — C ●●●●●

2 Ben Rice — B ●●●●●

3 Austin Wells — C ●●●●○

FADE Gerrit Cole RHP · NYY

leak 89

1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jonathan Aranda — C ●●●○○

2 Junior Caminero — C+ ●●●○○

3 Nick Fortes — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 40.3% · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Seymour — 0.168 · 89.2 · 8.1% 46.2% 22.3% F B O C 55

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Seymour — 0.264 · 91.9 · 11.9% 25.0% 40.3% F B O B 71

· NYY Austin Wells vs Seymour — 0.138 · 89.5 · 8.6% 27.3% 18.9% F B O C 50

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Cole Edge — 0.162 · 91.0 · 9.1% 20.0% 21.3% F B O C 53

· TB Junior Caminero COOL vs Cole — 0.249 · 92.7 · 10.5% 15.4% 23.9% F B O C+ 65

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Seymour — 0.169 · 90.5 · 9.1% 0.0% 17.9% F B O C 51

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Seymour Edge — 0.202 · 86.7 · 10.2% 0.0% 17.8% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· TB Nick Fortes vs Cole — 0.111 · 85.3 · 4.1% 16.7% 14.7% F B O D 38

· TB Richie Palacios vs Cole Edge — 0.141 · 86.5 · 5.9% 11.1% 11.1% F B O D 42

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Cole — 0.154 · 91.0 · 7.8% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 43

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Seymour Edge — 0.137 · 84.0 · 6.6% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 40

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Cole — 0.151 · 85.6 · 5.1% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 40

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Cole Edge — 0.136 · 87.8 · 5.9% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 42

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Seymour — 0.134 · 90.5 · 9.3% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 46

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Cole Edge — 0.072 · 85.5 · 3.9% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 31

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Cole Edge — 0.050 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Gerrit Cole — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Ian Seymour — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Aranda Fortes Rice Bellinger Wells

Legend

attack side — vs Seymour fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Cody Bellinger — · 55

Ben Rice — · 71

Austin Wells — · 50

Jonathan Aranda — · 53

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 10 mph in 63°F open

-7

↑

10 mph · in

63°F

7:05p

-7

↑

10 mph · in

62°F

8:05p

-7

↑

10 mph · in

60°F

9:05p

-7

↑

10 mph · in

59°F

10:05p

-6

↑

9 mph · in

58°F

11:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.77× 63°F, wind 10 mph NE (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gerrit Cole · RHP 1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 65 C+ — COOL 11 0.249 92.7 10.5% 41.2%vs RHP 413 24.7% 15.4% 23.9% 40

2 Jonathan Aranda 53 C — WARM 55 0.162 91.0 9.1% 18.8%vs RHP 390 13.2% 20.0% 21.3% 24

3 Yandy Diaz 43 D — COOL 131 0.154 91.0 7.8% 24.1%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 40

4 Richie Palacios 42 D — WARM 135 0.141 86.5 5.9% 19.6%vs RHP 385 8.8% 11.1% 11.1% 21

5 Cedric Mullins 42 D — COOL 138 0.136 87.8 5.9% 15.8%vs RHP 387 10.9% 0.0% 10.2% 16

6 Jonny Deluca 40 D — COOL 155 0.151 85.6 5.1% 21.9%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 21

7 Nick Fortes 38 D — WARM 167 0.111 85.3 4.1% 19.1%vs RHP 390 5.0% 16.7% 14.7% 14

8 Taylor Walls 31 D — COOL 210 0.072 85.5 3.9% 2.2%vs RHP 383 0.8% 0.0% 7.9% 10

9 Chandler Simpson 21 D — COOL 233 0.050 83.6 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 48

vs Ian Seymour · LHP 1.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.82 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 71 B — · 2 0.264 91.9 11.9% 31.4%vs LHP 393 23.6% 25.0% 40.3% 34

2 Paul Goldschmidt 55 C — COOL 48 0.202 86.7 10.2% 32.4%vs LHP 390 15.7% 0.0% 17.8% 11

3 Cody Bellinger 55 C — WARM 50 0.168 89.2 8.1% 12.8%vs LHP 377 12.7% 46.2% 22.3% 45

4 Jazz Chisholm 51 C — COOL 76 0.169 90.5 9.1% 18.5%vs LHP 384 12.5% 0.0% 17.9% 2

5 Austin Wells 50 C — WARM 80 0.138 89.5 8.6% 15.0%vs LHP 381 9.6% 27.3% 18.9% 21

6 Ryan Mcmahon 46 D — COOL 107 0.134 90.5 9.3% 0.0%vs LHP 387 8.3% 0.0% 8.3% 21

7 Jose Caballero 40 D — COOL 153 0.137 84.0 6.6% 22.2%vs LHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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