TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.18×

SD @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 3 mph out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

7:10p

+5 ↑

8:10p

+5 ↑

9:10p

+5 ↑

10:10p

+4 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +6

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 24 · vs Yamamoto ⟷ Kyle Tucker conv 30 · vs Ray → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · LAD

leak 82

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill — C ●●●●○

2 Manny Machado — C ●●○○○

3 Ty France — C ●●○○○

FADE Robbie Ray LHP · SF

leak 7

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Tucker — C ●●●●●

2 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●●○

3 Mookie Betts — C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: Match 22.9% · 14D pace 30.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Kyle Tucker HOT vs Ray — 0.158 · 88.9 · 7.4% 45.5% 14.5% F B O C 52

· — Max Muncy ✶ COOL vs Ray — 0.242 · 90.0 · 10.3% 30.8% 22.9% F B O C+ 66

· — Mookie Betts vs Ray Edge — 0.195 · 90.4 · 8.0% 27.3% 22.2% F B O C 56

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.188 · 91.6 · 9.2% 25.0% 23.4% F B O C 55

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.186 · 90.2 · 8.0% 16.7% 15.3% F B O C 51

· SD Ty France vs Yamamoto — 0.215 · 92.0 · 8.0% 10.0% 16.5% F B O C 52

· — Andy Pages COOL vs Ray Edge — 0.185 · 88.8 · 7.9% 0.0% 16.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· — Tommy Edman COOL vs Ray Edge — 0.141 · 87.2 · 6.5% 18.2% 13.1% F B O D 46

· — Alex Freeland vs Ray Edge — 0.090 · 89.6 · 7.1% 14.3% 8.0% F B O D 41

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Yamamoto — 0.181 · 92.9 · 9.3% 0.0% 21.6% F B O D 47

· SD Jake Cronenworth vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.096 · 87.1 · 5.0% 9.1% 9.8% F B O D 34

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Yamamoto — 0.109 · 89.4 · 6.2% 9.1% 9.0% F B O D 37

· — Teoscar Hernandez vs Ray Edge — 0.155 · 90.3 · 9.2% 0.0% 15.8% F B O D 46

· — Freddie Freeman vs Ray — 0.146 · 89.4 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 46

· SD Freddy Fermin COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.110 · 87.5 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Yoshinobu Yamamoto — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Robbie Ray — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Merrill France Machado Muncy Betts Tucker Edman

Legend

attack side — vs Yamamoto fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Max Muncy — · 66

Mookie Betts — · 56

Jackson Merrill — · 55

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 3 mph out 82°F open

↑

3 mph · out

82°F

7:10p · peak

↑

3 mph · slight_out

79°F

8:10p

↑

3 mph · out

77°F

9:10p

↑

3 mph · out

75°F

10:10p

↑

2 mph · out

74°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 82°F, wind 3 mph S (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jackson Merrill 55 C — WARM 47 0.188 91.6 9.2% 20.2%vs RHP 411 16.1% 25.0% 23.4% 39

2 Ty France 52 C — · 63 0.215 92.0 8.0% 25.8%vs RHP 390 15.2% 10.0% 16.5% 31

3 Manny Machado 51 C — COOL 73 0.186 90.2 8.0% 26.1%vs RHP 397 17.3% 16.7% 15.3% 38

4 Fernando Tatis 47 D — · 98 0.181 92.9 9.3% 18.6%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 21.6% 38

5 Xander Bogaerts 37 D — WARM 179 0.109 89.4 6.2% 16.2%vs RHP 404 7.5% 9.1% 9.0% 33

6 Jake Cronenworth 34 D — WARM 197 0.096 87.1 5.0% 12.0%vs RHP 377 3.8% 9.1% 9.8% 36

7 Freddy Fermin 34 D — COOL 200 0.110 87.5 5.1% 6.2%vs RHP 382 1.9% 0.0% 7.7% 10

vs Robbie Ray · LHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 66 C+ — COOL 9 0.242 90.0 10.3% 24.3%vs LHP 410 21.8% 30.8% 22.9% 41

2 Mookie Betts 56 C — WARM 40 0.195 90.4 8.0% 15.9%vs LHP 389 13.3% 27.3% 22.2% 41

3 Kyle Tucker 52 C — HOT 64 0.158 88.9 7.4% 11.9%vs LHP 392 10.3% 45.5% 14.5% 37

4 Andy Pages 52 C — COOL 67 0.185 88.8 7.9% 21.6%vs LHP 390 14.2% 0.0% 16.8% 2

5 Teoscar Hernandez 46 D — · 104 0.155 90.3 9.2% 22.6%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 29

6 Freddie Freeman 46 D — · 112 0.146 89.4 8.1% 13.2%vs LHP 399 9.2% 0.0% 8.1% 29

7 Tommy Edman 46 D — COOL 113 0.141 87.2 6.5% 20.0%vs LHP 397 10.9% 18.2% 13.1% 31

8 Alex Freeland 41 D — WARM 149 0.090 89.6 7.1% 0.0%vs LHP 366 3.7% 14.3% 8.0% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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