TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ DET

Playable air · 1.06×

WSH @ DET

Comerica Park · 1:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 12 mph cross 64°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

1:10p

-7 ↑

2:10p

-6 ↑

3:10p

-5 ↑

4:10p

-5 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 4:10p window peaks -5

Best of game Spencer Torkelson conv 25 · vs Lovelady ⟷ Cj Abrams conv 14 · vs Valdez → edge: Spencer Torkelson

ATTACK Richard Lovelady LHP · WSH

leak 92

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · leakiest side of this game

1 Spencer Torkelson — C ●●●●○

2 Hao-Yu Lee — D ●●●○○

3 Riley Greene — C ●●○○○

FADE Framber Valdez LHP · DET

leak 83

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cj Abrams — C ●●○○○

2 Keibert Ruiz — D ●●○○○

3 Daylen Lile — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Spencer Torkelson: Match 19.8% · 14D pace 30.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Spencer Torkelson ✶ vs Lovelady Edge — 0.198 · 89.5 · 8.7% 30.0% 19.8% F B O C 53

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Lovelady — 0.197 · 90.1 · 9.8% 16.7% 14.2% F B O C 52

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Valdez — 0.237 · 89.6 · 7.6% 0.0% 28.4% F B O C 53

· DET Dillon Dingler vs Lovelady Edge — 0.208 · 88.6 · 8.0% 12.5% 13.2% F B O C 51

· WSH James Wood COOL vs Valdez — 0.244 · 95.3 · 10.6% 0.0% 19.9% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· DET Hao-Yu Lee vs Lovelady Edge — 0.167 · 89.7 · 7.6% 20.0% 12.9% F B O D 47

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Valdez Edge — 0.165 · 88.0 · 5.3% 14.3% 10.6% F B O D 40

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Valdez — 0.186 · 88.6 · 7.5% 11.1% 11.8% F B O D 45

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Valdez Edge — 0.146 · 90.0 · 7.5% 10.0% 9.2% F B O D 42

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Lovelady Edge — 0.103 · 86.3 · 6.2% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 35

· WSH Jacob Young vs Valdez Edge — 0.142 · 87.8 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 36

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Lovelady — 0.149 · 88.0 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 40

· WSH Jorbit Vivas vs Valdez — 0.085 · 82.9 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 28

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Valdez Edge — 0.033 · 85.0 · 2.3% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 19

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Lovelady — 0.094 · 85.7 · 3.5% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Framber Valdez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Richard Lovelady — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Abrams Torkelson Greene Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Lovelady fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Spencer Torkelson — · 53

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 12 mph cross 64°F open

-6

↑

12 mph · cross

62°F

1:10p

-7

↑

13 mph · cross

63°F

2:10p

-6

↑

12 mph · cross

64°F

3:10p

-5

↑

12 mph · cross

64°F

4:10p · peak

-5

↑

11 mph · cross

64°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 64°F, wind 12 mph E (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Framber Valdez · LHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 58 C — COOL 32 0.244 95.3 10.6% 40.9%vs LHP 413 22.3% 0.0% 19.9% 24

2 Cj Abrams 53 C — WARM 59 0.237 89.6 7.6% 25.8%vs LHP 396 30.8% 0.0% 28.4% 32

3 Daylen Lile 45 D — WARM 120 0.186 88.6 7.5% 3.3%vs LHP 401 11.5% 11.1% 11.8% 33

4 Dylan Crews 42 D — COOL 143 0.146 90.0 7.5% 19.4%vs LHP 405 13.5% 10.0% 9.2% 34

5 Keibert Ruiz 40 D — WARM 159 0.165 88.0 5.3% 21.4%vs LHP 380 10.4% 14.3% 10.6% 25

6 Jacob Young 36 D — WARM 192 0.142 87.8 5.7% 8.1%vs LHP 399 6.2% 0.0% 7.6% 20

7 Jorbit Vivas 28 D — WARM 223 0.085 82.9 4.3% 4.0% 392 2.2% 0.0% 6.9% 21

8 Nasim Nunez 19 D — COOL 236 0.033 85.0 2.3% 4.8%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 15

vs Richard Lovelady · LHP 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Spencer Torkelson ✶ 53 C — WARM 60 0.198 89.5 8.7% 8.1%vs LHP 391 15.8% 30.0% 19.8% 22

2 Riley Greene 52 C — COOL 69 0.197 90.1 9.8% 20.0%vs LHP 400 13.2% 16.7% 14.2% 34

3 Dillon Dingler 51 C — WARM 77 0.208 88.6 8.0% 12.9%vs LHP 398 17.1% 12.5% 13.2% 24

4 Hao-Yu Lee 47 D — WARM 103 0.167 89.7 7.6% 14.3%vs LHP 396 16.3% 20.0% 12.9% 34

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 40 D — · 158 0.149 88.0 6.7% 6.2%vs LHP 393 18.2% 0.0% 7.4% 40

6 Gleyber Torres 35 D — · 196 0.103 86.3 6.2% 9.5%vs LHP 393 7.7% 0.0% 7.9% 27

7 Zach Mckinstry 28 D — COOL 222 0.094 85.7 3.5% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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