TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ SEA

Suppressed air · 0.92×

HOU @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 10:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 8 mph cross 61°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-5 ↑

7:10p

-6 ↑

8:10p

-7 ↑

9:10p

-7 ↑

10:10p

-6 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at -5

Best of game Randy Arozarena conv 21 · vs Pecko ⟷ Isaac Paredes conv 31 · vs Kirby → edge: Cal Raleigh

ATTACK Ethan Pecko RHP · HOU

leak 96

1.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · leakiest side of this game

1 Randy Arozarena — C ●●●○○

2 Cal Raleigh — C ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone — C ●●○○○

FADE George Kirby RHP · SEA

leak 76

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Isaac Paredes — D ●●●●●

2 Jeremy Peña — C ●●●○○

3 Cam Smith — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cal Raleigh: Match 20.6% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Pecko — 0.201 · 90.9 · 8.4% 25.0% 17.8% F B O C 56

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Kirby — 0.194 · 88.5 · 6.8% 16.7% 24.5% F B O C 50

· SEA Cal Raleigh ✶ vs Pecko Edge — 0.192 · 89.9 · 11.5% 16.7% 20.6% F B O C 58

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Kirby — 0.180 · 88.6 · 8.6% 18.2% 18.6% F B O C 50

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Kirby Edge — 0.288 · 94.2 · 10.3% 0.0% 30.0% F B O C 59

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Pecko Edge — 0.221 · 91.2 · 10.4% 8.3% 17.8% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Kirby — 0.178 · 86.1 · 5.7% 41.7% 19.8% F B O D 48

· HOU Yainer Diaz HOT vs Kirby — 0.164 · 89.0 · 6.5% 20.0% 15.0% F B O D 45

· HOU Taylor Trammell HOT vs Kirby Edge — 0.155 · 88.5 · 9.2% 14.3% 14.2% F B O D 46

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Kirby — 0.189 · 88.8 · 7.8% 9.1% 13.2% F B O D 49

· SEA Cole Young HOT vs Pecko Edge — 0.138 · 88.3 · 6.7% 10.0% 10.4% F B O D 44

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Pecko — 0.152 · 90.3 · 8.8% 8.3% 7.6% F B O D 48

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Pecko Edge — 0.129 · 87.7 · 7.5% 0.0% 14.7% F B O D 40

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Kirby — 0.118 · 85.9 · 3.8% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 32

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Kirby — 0.151 · 85.6 · 5.4% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 35

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Pecko Edge — 0.089 · 87.1 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for George Kirby — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Ethan Pecko — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Peña Smith Paredes Trammell Diaz Raleigh Canzone Arozarena

Legend

attack side — vs Pecko fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Isaac Paredes — · 48

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.02× Wind 8 mph cross 61°F retractable

-5

↑

8 mph · cross

61°F

7:10p · peak

-6

↑

8 mph · cross

58°F

8:10p

-7

↑

8 mph · in

57°F

9:10p

-7

↑

7 mph · in

56°F

10:10p

-6

↑

6 mph · in

55°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.92× 61°F, wind 8 mph N (cross) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs George Kirby · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 59 C — · 25 0.288 94.2 10.3% 25.2%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 30.0% 28

2 Jeremy Peña 50 C — WARM 79 0.194 88.5 6.8% 29.0%vs RHP 389 15.6% 16.7% 24.5% 29

3 Cam Smith 50 C — COOL 81 0.180 88.6 8.6% 21.3%vs RHP 410 13.2% 18.2% 18.6% 27

4 Christian Walker 49 D — COOL 89 0.189 88.8 7.8% 22.2%vs RHP 393 16.6% 9.1% 13.2% 30

5 Isaac Paredes 48 D — WARM 94 0.178 86.1 5.7% 17.8%vs RHP 376 14.0% 41.7% 19.8% 36

6 Taylor Trammell 46 D — HOT 108 0.155 88.5 9.2% 19.5%vs RHP 406 11.8% 14.3% 14.2% 15

7 Yainer Diaz 45 D — HOT 115 0.164 89.0 6.5% 32.4%vs RHP 389 11.9% 20.0% 15.0% 34

8 Jose Altuve 35 D — COOL 194 0.151 85.6 5.4% 17.6%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 41

9 Christian Vazquez 32 D — COOL 208 0.118 85.9 3.8% 17.1%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 4

vs Ethan Pecko · RHP 1.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh ✶ 58 C — · 29 0.192 89.9 11.5% 15.9%vs RHP 386 16.3% 16.7% 20.6% 28

2 Dominic Canzone 58 C — · 30 0.221 91.2 10.4% 22.7%vs RHP 403 14.5% 8.3% 17.8% 38

3 Randy Arozarena 56 C — WARM 42 0.201 90.9 8.4% 23.1%vs RHP 389 15.9% 25.0% 17.8% 35

4 Julio Rodríguez 48 D — WARM 93 0.152 90.3 8.8% 19.7%vs RHP 404 14.2% 8.3% 7.6% 38

5 Cole Young 44 D — HOT 124 0.138 88.3 6.7% 17.5%vs RHP 384 10.9% 10.0% 10.4% 31

6 J.P. Crawford 40 D — COOL 152 0.129 87.7 7.5% 21.6%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 43

7 Josh Naylor 36 D — WARM 189 0.089 87.1 6.4% 10.0%vs RHP 392 5.3% 0.0% 8.9% 46

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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