TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.36×

LAA @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.23× Wind 1 mph in 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

6:40p

+7 ↑

7:40p

+8 ↑

8:40p

+9 ↑

9:40p

+11 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +11

Best of game Zach Neto conv 22 · vs Springs ⟷ Zack Gelof conv 29 · vs Ureña → edge: Zach Neto

ATTACK Jeffrey Springs LHP · ATH

leak 91

2.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto — C+ ●●●○○

2 Vaughn Grissom — C ●●○○○

3 Josh Lowe — C ●●○○○

FADE Walbert Ureña RHP · LAA

leak 61

0.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zack Gelof — C+ ●●●●○

2 Lawrence Butler — C ●●●●○

3 Henry Bolte — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Zach Neto: Match 26.6% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Zack Gelof HOT vs Ureña — 0.210 · 89.7 · 7.6% 27.3% 29.8% F B O C+ 60

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Ureña Edge — 0.161 · 89.6 · 6.9% 27.3% 20.6% F B O C 51

· LAA Zach Neto ✶ vs Springs Edge — 0.194 · 89.8 · 10.0% 16.7% 26.6% F B O C+ 64

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Springs Edge — 0.145 · 87.5 · 7.8% 16.7% 12.8% F B O C 53

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Springs — 0.154 · 88.7 · 9.1% 10.0% 14.2% F B O C 55

· LAA Mike Trout vs Springs Edge — 0.178 · 89.9 · 11.8% 8.3% 15.0% F B O C+ 61

· ATH Shea Langeliers COOL vs Ureña — 0.219 · 91.5 · 8.9% 0.0% 18.0% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Ureña — 0.124 · 90.9 · 6.7% 18.2% 16.5% F B O D 46

· ATH Carlos Cortes vs Ureña Edge — 0.151 · 88.2 · 5.8% 12.5% 10.3% F B O D 44

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Springs Edge — 0.109 · 87.6 · 7.4% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 46

· ATH Jonah Heim COOL vs Ureña — 0.164 · 87.5 · 5.9% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 44

· LAA Wade Meckler COOL vs Springs — 0.082 · 87.0 · 4.9% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 41

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Ureña Edge — 0.100 · 86.5 · 3.1% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jeffrey Springs — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Walbert Ureña — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Neto Grissom Gelof Butler Bolte

Legend

attack side — vs Springs fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Zack Gelof — · 60

Lawrence Butler — · 51

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.23× Wind 1 mph in 81°F open

↑

1 mph · in

81°F

6:40p

↑

1 mph · cross

77°F

7:40p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

74°F

8:40p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

72°F

9:40p

+11

↑

4 mph · out

70°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.36× 81°F, wind 1 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jeffrey Springs · LHP 2.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.14 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto ✶ 64 C+ — WARM 13 0.194 89.8 10.0% 19.1%vs LHP 404 16.1% 16.7% 26.6% 26

2 Mike Trout 61 C+ — · 16 0.178 89.9 11.8% 15.6%vs LHP 409 12.6% 8.3% 15.0% 25

3 Josh Lowe 55 C — WARM 49 0.154 88.7 9.1% 0.0%vs LHP 393 10.0% 10.0% 14.2% 14

4 Vaughn Grissom 53 C — COOL 58 0.145 87.5 7.8% 7.1%vs LHP 389 10.0% 16.7% 12.8% 34

5 Oswald Peraza 46 D — WARM 109 0.109 87.6 7.4% 22.7%vs LHP 386 4.5% 0.0% 12.1% 12

6 Wade Meckler 41 D — COOL 147 0.082 87.0 4.9% 6.4% 396 4.5% 0.0% 9.6% 32

vs Walbert Ureña · RHP 0.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 60 C+ — HOT 24 0.210 89.7 7.6% 24.6%vs RHP 397 21.4% 27.3% 29.8% 33

2 Shea Langeliers 57 C — COOL 35 0.219 91.5 8.9% 22.6%vs RHP 417 19.0% 0.0% 18.0% 23

3 Lawrence Butler 51 C — WARM 72 0.161 89.6 6.9% 24.1%vs RHP 408 10.2% 27.3% 20.6% 32

4 Henry Bolte 46 D — WARM 106 0.124 90.9 6.7% 14.8%vs RHP 398 11.8% 18.2% 16.5% 24

5 Jonah Heim 44 D — COOL 123 0.164 87.5 5.9% 6.8%vs RHP 409 8.1% 0.0% 10.8% 21

6 Carlos Cortes 44 D — · 129 0.151 88.2 5.8% 15.8%vs RHP 400 5.6% 12.5% 10.3% 21

7 Jeff Mcneil 34 D — COOL 198 0.100 86.5 3.1% 11.4%vs RHP 380 6.0% 0.0% 8.5% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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