TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ SF

Suppressed air · 0.89×

MIN @ SF

Oracle Park · 3:45p · 8 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 5 mph out 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

12:45p

+4 ↑

1:45p

+4 ↑

2:45p

+5 ↑

3:45p

+5 ↑

4:45p

conditions build late — the 3:45p window peaks +5

Best of game Josh Bell conv 13 · vs Perdomo ⟷ Drew Gilbert conv 19 · vs Prielipp → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Cesar Perdomo LHP · SF

leak 97

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · leakiest side of this game

1 Josh Bell — D ●●○○○

2 Kody Clemens — C ●●○○○

3 Brooks Lee — D ●○○○○

FADE Connor Prielipp LHP · MIN

leak 53

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Drew Gilbert — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: Match 14.7% · 14D pace 7.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ COOL vs Perdomo — 0.220 · 91.8 · 8.8% 7.7% 14.7% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Prielipp — 0.158 · 86.7 · 6.4% 25.0% 13.9% F B O D 38

· MIN Josh Bell vs Perdomo Edge — 0.162 · 89.8 · 8.2% 16.7% 9.2% F B O D 43

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Perdomo Edge — 0.179 · 88.2 · 5.4% 8.3% 7.9% F B O D 40

· MIN Ryan Jeffers COOL vs Perdomo Edge — 0.208 · 88.7 · 8.5% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 45

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Perdomo Edge — 0.152 · 89.8 · 8.6% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 40

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Perdomo Edge — 0.093 · 89.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 29

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Perdomo Edge — 0.111 · 85.4 · 4.7% 0.0% 5.2% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Cesar Perdomo — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Connor Prielipp — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Gilbert

Legend

attack side — vs Perdomo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 12:45p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 5 mph out 70°F open

↑

5 mph · out

69°F

12:45p

↑

7 mph · out

73°F

1:45p

↑

7 mph · out

73°F

2:45p

↑

8 mph · out

73°F

3:45p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

72°F

4:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.89× 70°F, wind 5 mph W (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cesar Perdomo · LHP 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 50 C — COOL 84 0.220 91.8 8.8% 17.9%vs LHP 390 17.1% 7.7% 14.7% 37

2 Ryan Jeffers 45 D — COOL 119 0.208 88.7 8.5% 13.6%vs LHP 397 15.0% 0.0% 10.1% 19

3 Josh Bell 43 D — · 134 0.162 89.8 8.2% 13.0%vs LHP 407 11.7% 16.7% 9.2% 34

4 Brooks Lee 40 D — COOL 160 0.179 88.2 5.4% 7.5%vs LHP 375 15.9% 8.3% 7.9% 40

5 Royce Lewis 40 D — COOL 161 0.152 89.8 8.6% 12.9%vs LHP 402 12.4% 0.0% 7.3% 29

6 Victor Caratini 29 D — COOL 218 0.093 89.4 6.6% 11.1%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 20

7 Luke Keaschall 29 D — COOL 220 0.111 85.4 4.7% 2.4%vs LHP 378 6.5% 0.0% 5.2% 43

vs Connor Prielipp · LHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 1 batter

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Drew Gilbert 38 D — HOT 173 0.158 86.7 6.4% 13.3% 392 8.0% 25.0% 13.9% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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