TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ COL

Neutral air · 1.00×

AZ @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 2 mph cross 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

6:40p

-1 ↑

7:40p

-2 ↑

8:40p

-2 ↑

9:40p

-1 ↑

10:40p

the 6:40p window peaks -1

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 41 · vs Adams ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 24 · vs Kelly → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Mason Adams RHP · COL

leak 96

2.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.81 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado — C+ ●●●●●

2 Corbin Carroll — C+ ●●●●●

3 Gabriel Moreno — C ●●●●○

FADE Merrill Kelly RHP · AZ

leak 86

1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.75 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman — B ●●●●○

2 Cole Carrigg — C ●●●○○

3 Kyle Karros — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 27.2% · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Nolan Arenado HOT vs Adams — 0.214 · 85.0 · 7.7% 54.5% 28.1% F B O C+ 60

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Adams Edge — 0.231 · 91.8 · 10.8% 30.0% 28.7% F B O C+ 64

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Adams — 0.174 · 89.2 · 8.6% 30.0% 21.4% F B O C 53

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Kelly — 0.281 · 90.0 · 12.8% 20.0% 27.2% F B O B 71

· COL Cole Carrigg vs Kelly Edge — 0.188 · 87.9 · 7.9% 15.4% 21.9% F B O C 51

· COL Kyle Karros vs Kelly — 0.160 · 89.5 · 9.6% 18.2% 13.6% F B O C 51

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Kelly Edge — 0.247 · 89.6 · 10.3% 12.5% 19.0% F B O C+ 61

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Adams Edge — 0.186 · 90.2 · 9.4% 0.0% 13.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Kelly — 0.122 · 87.5 · 8.6% 11.1% 9.7% F B O D 44

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Kelly Edge — 0.191 · 85.3 · 7.9% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 48

· AZ Jose Fernandez COOL vs Adams — 0.090 · 88.0 · 6.1% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 37

· AZ Tim Tawa COOL vs Adams — 0.154 · 90.5 · 9.7% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 48

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Adams — 0.105 · 86.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 40

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Kelly Edge — 0.149 · 84.2 · 7.4% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 44

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Adams Edge — 0.110 · 87.4 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 36

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Adams Edge — 0.124 · 87.4 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 38

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Kelly Edge — 0.118 · 89.7 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Mason Adams — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Merrill Kelly — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Arenado Moreno Goodman Moniak Carrigg Karros

Legend

attack side — vs Adams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Nolan Arenado — · 60

Corbin Carroll — · 64

Gabriel Moreno — · 53

Hunter Goodman — · 71

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 2 mph cross 70°F open

-1

↑

2 mph · cross

70°F

6:40p · peak

-1

↑

2 mph · cross

68°F

7:40p

-2

↑

2 mph · in

66°F

8:40p

-2

↑

2 mph · cross

65°F

9:40p

-1

↑

1 mph · cross

63°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 70°F, wind 2 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Mason Adams · RHP 2.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.81 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 64 C+ — WARM 12 0.231 91.8 10.8% 17.0%vs RHP 402 14.1% 30.0% 28.7% 27

2 Nolan Arenado 60 C+ — HOT 23 0.214 85.0 7.7% 21.5%vs RHP 389 17.8% 54.5% 28.1% 32

3 Gabriel Moreno 53 C — · 54 0.174 89.2 8.6% 16.2%vs RHP 399 12.0% 30.0% 21.4% 35

4 Ketel Marte 52 C — COOL 66 0.186 90.2 9.4% 13.5%vs RHP 408 13.8% 0.0% 13.1% 44

5 Tim Tawa 48 D — COOL 91 0.154 90.5 9.7% 23.3%vs RHP 399 8.8% 0.0% 12.2% 26

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 40 D — COOL 157 0.105 86.6 7.8% 9.7%vs RHP 415 3.4% 0.0% 10.9% 3

7 Ildemaro Vargas 38 D — COOL 170 0.124 87.4 5.5% 6.0%vs RHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 8.2% 19

8 Jose Fernandez 37 D — COOL 178 0.090 88.0 6.1% 21.4%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 6

9 Geraldo Perdomo 36 D — COOL 190 0.110 87.4 4.9% 9.0%vs RHP 383 5.7% 0.0% 8.6% 35

vs Merrill Kelly · RHP 1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.75 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 71 B — COOL 3 0.281 90.0 12.8% 35.0%vs RHP 408 23.6% 20.0% 27.2% 30

2 Mickey Moniak 61 C+ — WARM 19 0.247 89.6 10.3% 21.8%vs RHP 416 16.8% 12.5% 19.0% 19

3 Cole Carrigg 51 C — WARM 71 0.188 87.9 7.9% 17.5%vs RHP 407 9.6% 15.4% 21.9% 36

4 Kyle Karros 51 C — WARM 75 0.160 89.5 9.6% 18.2%vs RHP 418 11.2% 18.2% 13.6% 33

5 Jake Mccarthy 48 D — WARM 90 0.191 85.3 7.9% 15.1%vs RHP 415 9.5% 0.0% 12.8% 46

6 Ezequiel Tovar 44 D — WARM 126 0.122 87.5 8.6% 14.3%vs RHP 404 7.6% 11.1% 9.7% 18

7 Tj Rumfield 44 D — COOL 127 0.149 84.2 7.4% 12.0%vs RHP 412 9.5% 0.0% 9.6% 35

8 Troy Johnston 37 D — COOL 182 0.118 89.7 4.9% 4.0%vs RHP 411 1.9% 0.0% 7.4% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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