TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.10×

MIL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 10 mph cross 62°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:40p

-4 ↑

7:40p

-5 ↑

8:40p

-5 ↑

9:40p

-6 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 7:40p at -4

Best of game William Contreras conv 33 · vs Nola ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 27 · vs Henderson → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Aaron Nola RHP · PHI

leak 91

1.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.11 · leakiest side of this game

1 William Contreras — C ●●●●●

2 Jake Bauers — C+ ●●●●●

3 Brice Turang — C ●●●○○

FADE Logan Henderson RHP · MIL

leak 91

1.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber — B ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper — C ●●○○○

3 Brandon Marsh — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 33.4% · 14D pace 28.6% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL William Contreras vs Nola — 0.150 · 90.4 · 8.8% 44.4% 21.0% F B O C 56

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs Nola Edge — 0.226 · 92.2 · 11.2% 28.6% 33.4% F B O C+ 68

· PHI Kyle Schwarber COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.275 · 92.3 · 11.8% 16.7% 37.2% F B O B 70

· MIL Brice Turang vs Nola Edge — 0.171 · 90.2 · 8.2% 20.0% 24.2% F B O C 55

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Nola Edge — 0.159 · 93.4 · 10.4% 20.0% 23.1% F B O C 56

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Nola — 0.194 · 91.7 · 10.5% 18.2% 21.0% F B O C+ 61

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.219 · 90.1 · 9.6% 8.3% 20.3% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Nola Edge — 0.139 · 89.1 · 9.1% 12.5% 11.1% F B O D 49

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.152 · 89.2 · 8.3% 11.1% 11.7% F B O D 47

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Nola — 0.136 · 89.0 · 6.1% 11.1% 11.6% F B O D 45

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Henderson Edge — 0.093 · 87.1 · 4.0% 11.1% 8.2% F B O D 33

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Henderson — 0.140 · 88.3 · 7.4% 8.3% 10.1% F B O D 44

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.139 · 89.2 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 42

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Henderson — 0.127 · 89.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 38

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Henderson — 0.138 · 90.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 42

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Nola Edge — 0.088 · 86.8 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 38

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Nola Edge — 0.088 · 85.9 · 4.6% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Aaron Nola — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Logan Henderson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Mitchell Contreras Turang Schwarber Harper

Legend

attack side — vs Nola fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

William Contreras — · 56

Jake Bauers — · 68

Brice Turang — · 55

Garrett Mitchell — · 56

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 10 mph cross 62°F open

-5

↑

10 mph · cross

62°F

6:40p

-4

↑

9 mph · in

61°F

7:40p · peak

-5

↑

9 mph · in

59°F

8:40p

-5

↑

9 mph · in

58°F

9:40p

-6

↑

10 mph · in

57°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 62°F, wind 10 mph NE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Aaron Nola · RHP 1.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.11 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 68 C+ — WARM 6 0.226 92.2 11.2% 28.1%vs RHP 401 19.7% 28.6% 33.4% 16

2 Jackson Chourio 61 C+ — · 17 0.194 91.7 10.5% 18.8%vs RHP 401 17.2% 18.2% 21.0% 32

3 Garrett Mitchell 56 C — · 39 0.159 93.4 10.4% 26.3%vs RHP 417 8.1% 20.0% 23.1% 23

4 William Contreras 56 C — WARM 41 0.150 90.4 8.8% 16.5%vs RHP 407 12.1% 44.4% 21.0% 31

5 Brice Turang 55 C — WARM 46 0.171 90.2 8.2% 23.9%vs RHP 406 10.8% 20.0% 24.2% 23

6 Christian Yelich 49 D — COOL 87 0.139 89.1 9.1% 20.0%vs RHP 397 8.5% 12.5% 11.1% 21

7 Joey Ortiz 45 D — · 117 0.136 89.0 6.1% 18.4%vs RHP 392 7.6% 11.1% 11.6% 26

8 David Hamilton 38 D — COOL 169 0.088 86.8 5.3% 5.6%vs RHP 386 4.0% 0.0% 8.5% 12

9 Sal Frelick 36 D — COOL 191 0.088 85.9 4.6% 5.8%vs RHP 396 3.3% 0.0% 8.5% 20

vs Logan Henderson · RHP 1.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber 70 B — COOL 4 0.275 92.3 11.8% 40.5%vs RHP 402 23.1% 16.7% 37.2% 26

2 Bryce Harper 57 C — COOL 34 0.219 90.1 9.6% 34.3%vs RHP 403 17.1% 8.3% 20.3% 35

3 Brandon Marsh 47 D — COOL 102 0.152 89.2 8.3% 16.7%vs RHP 391 10.9% 11.1% 11.7% 21

4 Trea Turner 44 D — COOL 125 0.140 88.3 7.4% 18.8%vs RHP 390 12.2% 8.3% 10.1% 37

5 Alec Bohm 42 D — · 136 0.138 90.5 7.3% 12.1%vs RHP 394 9.7% 0.0% 9.1% 39

6 Bryson Stott 42 D — COOL 139 0.139 89.2 7.3% 8.6%vs RHP 393 6.9% 0.0% 9.5% 34

7 J.T. Realmuto 38 D — COOL 166 0.127 89.6 7.0% 17.6%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 24

8 Justin Crawford 33 D — WARM 203 0.093 87.1 4.0% 4.0%vs RHP 395 2.6% 11.1% 8.2% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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