TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.22×

NYM @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 8 mph cross 89°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-2 ↑

7:05p

-2 ↑

8:05p

-1 ↑

9:05p

-1 ↑

10:05p

-1 ↑

11:05p

the 9:05p window peaks -1

Best of game Carson Benge conv 20 · vs Proxy ⟷ Jake Burger conv 18 · vs McLean → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK TEX Bullpen Proxy · SF

leak 51

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carson Benge — D ●●●○○

2 Francisco Lindor — C ●●●○○

3 Juan Soto — C+ ●●●○○

FADE Nolan McLean RHP · NYM

leak 45

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Burger — C ●●●○○

2 Josh Jung — D ●●●○○

3 Corey Seager — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: Match 16.4% · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Francisco Lindor COOL vs Proxy — 0.199 · 91.4 · 8.9% 16.7% 20.0% F B O C 53

· TEX Jake Burger vs McLean — 0.194 · 90.2 · 9.1% 16.7% 19.5% F B O C 52

· — Juan Soto ✶ vs Proxy — 0.243 · 92.7 · 13.7% 16.7% 16.4% F B O C+ 64

· TEX Corey Seager COOL vs McLean Edge — 0.192 · 91.7 · 9.7% 16.7% 14.4% F B O C 52

· — Francisco Alvarez vs Proxy — 0.171 · 90.4 · 15.3% 0.0% 11.5% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Carson Benge vs Proxy — 0.146 · 88.7 · 7.4% 25.0% 14.4% F B O D 45

· TEX Josh Jung vs McLean — 0.156 · 90.6 · 6.9% 22.2% 13.9% F B O D 44

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs McLean — 0.192 · 88.9 · 7.2% 8.3% 12.8% F B O D 47

· — Bo Bichette COOL vs Proxy — 0.128 · 89.6 · 6.4% 8.3% 8.0% F B O D 40

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs McLean — 0.165 · 88.8 · 6.2% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 41

· — A.J. Ewing vs Proxy — 0.121 · 89.5 · 6.9% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 36

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs McLean Edge — 0.146 · 92.1 · 7.8% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 41

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs McLean Edge — 0.121 · 87.6 · 5.8% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 35

· — Brett Baty COOL vs Proxy — 0.133 · 90.4 · 10.1% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 43

· — Marcus Semien COOL vs Proxy — 0.120 · 86.6 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 36

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs McLean Edge — 0.040 · 84.7 · — 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Nolan McLean — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for TEX Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Burger Seager Jung Soto Lindor Benge

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 1.02× Wind 8 mph cross 89°F retractable

-2

↑

8 mph · cross

89°F

7:05p

-2

↑

8 mph · cross

89°F

8:05p

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

88°F

9:05p · peak

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

87°F

10:05p

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

86°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.22× 89°F, wind 8 mph E (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nolan McLean · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Burger 52 C — WARM 62 0.194 90.2 9.1% 20.5%vs RHP 402 16.2% 16.7% 19.5% 26

2 Corey Seager 52 C — COOL 65 0.192 91.7 9.7% 22.2%vs RHP 397 17.5% 16.7% 14.4% 38

3 Wyatt Langford 47 D — WARM 99 0.192 88.9 7.2% 22.4%vs RHP 401 14.5% 8.3% 12.8% 20

4 Josh Jung 44 D — WARM 121 0.156 90.6 6.9% 16.7%vs RHP 381 11.1% 22.2% 13.9% 28

5 Ezequiel Duran 41 D — COOL 146 0.165 88.8 6.2% 20.0%vs RHP 397 12.3% 0.0% 10.6% 34

6 Brandon Nimmo 41 D — COOL 148 0.146 92.1 7.8% 11.2%vs RHP 404 9.0% 0.0% 8.9% 26

7 Evan Carter 35 D — COOL 195 0.121 87.6 5.8% 11.8%vs RHP 380 7.1% 0.0% 8.1% 17

8 Nicky Lopez 19 D — COOL 235 0.040 84.7 — 4.3%vs RHP 397 1.6% 0.0% 7.1% 17

vs TEX Bullpen Proxy 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 64 C+ — · 20 0.243 92.7 13.7% 19.8% 402 20.4% 16.7% 16.4% 40

2 Francisco Lindor 53 C — COOL 85 0.199 91.4 8.9% 15.5% 390 15.7% 16.7% 20.0% 38

3 Francisco Alvarez 51 C — WARM 95 0.171 90.4 15.3% 20.5% 401 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 22

4 Carson Benge 45 D — WARM 144 0.146 88.7 7.4% 14.1% 392 11.3% 25.0% 14.4% 38

5 Brett Baty 43 D — COOL 162 0.133 90.4 10.1% 10.2% 396 6.8% 0.0% 7.8% 18

6 Bo Bichette 40 D — COOL 185 0.128 89.6 6.4% 12.9% 390 10.5% 8.3% 8.0% 39

7 A.J. Ewing 36 D — · 206 0.121 89.5 6.9% 11.5% 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 33

8 Marcus Semien 36 D — COOL 207 0.120 86.6 5.8% 9.0% 391 9.3% 0.0% 7.5% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.