TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ CHC

Neutral air · 1.01×

MIA @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 7:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 8 mph in 65°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:40p

-4 ↑

7:40p

-5 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

the 7:40p window peaks -4

Best of game Javier Sanoja conv 15 · vs Gausman ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 30 · vs Gusto → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Kevin Gausman RHP · TOR

leak 62

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · leakiest side of this game

1 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

2 Jakob Marsee — D ●●○○○

3 Kyle Stowers — C ●●○○○

FADE Ryan Gusto RHP · MIA

leak 57

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong — B ●●●●●

2 Dansby Swanson — C ●●●●○

3 Alex Bregman — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 33.2% · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Gusto Edge — 0.297 · 90.7 · 10.9% 27.3% 33.2% F B O B 74

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Gusto — 0.189 · 89.6 · 8.1% 33.3% 17.8% F B O C 54

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Gusto — 0.190 · 88.1 · 7.3% 20.0% 19.3% F B O C 54

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Gusto Edge — 0.156 · 88.4 · 8.9% 18.2% 16.5% F B O C 53

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Gusto — 0.204 · 88.7 · 9.6% 10.0% 15.4% F B O C 57

· — Kyle Stowers vs Gausman Edge — 0.215 · 92.4 · 9.7% 9.1% 15.9% F B O C 57

· CHC Ian Happ vs Gusto Edge — 0.193 · 89.5 · 10.0% 10.0% 14.5% F B O C 57

· — Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Gausman — 0.209 · 91.1 · 9.8% 0.0% 18.6% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· — Javier Sanoja vs Gausman — 0.160 · 87.1 · 4.5% 18.2% 12.4% F B O D 44

· — Jakob Marsee COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.127 · 87.3 · 5.2% 18.2% 11.4% F B O D 42

· — Otto Lopez vs Gausman — 0.135 · 89.2 · 6.8% 9.1% 10.0% F B O D 43

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Gusto — 0.120 · 86.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 42

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Gusto — 0.090 · 86.0 · 3.5% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 34

· — Xavier Edwards COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.091 · 86.8 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Ryan Gusto — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kevin Gausman — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Swanson Bregman Busch Sanoja Marsee

Legend

attack side — vs Gausman fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 74

Alex Bregman — · 54

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.12× Wind 8 mph in 65°F open

-5

↑

8 mph · in

65°F

6:40p

-4

↑

8 mph · in

65°F

7:40p · peak

-5

↑

9 mph · in

65°F

8:40p

-4

↑

9 mph · in

65°F

9:40p

-4

↑

9 mph · in

64°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 65°F, wind 8 mph NE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Gusto · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 74 B — · 1 0.297 90.7 10.9% 30.1%vs RHP 397 23.6% 27.3% 33.2% 36

2 Seiya Suzuki 57 C — WARM 36 0.204 88.7 9.6% 18.7%vs RHP 408 15.8% 10.0% 15.4% 30

3 Ian Happ 57 C — WARM 37 0.193 89.5 10.0% 23.8%vs RHP 401 16.9% 10.0% 14.5% 23

4 Dansby Swanson 54 C — COOL 51 0.189 89.6 8.1% 18.8%vs RHP 404 12.7% 33.3% 17.8% 7

5 Alex Bregman 54 C — WARM 52 0.190 88.1 7.3% 18.8%vs RHP 389 13.1% 20.0% 19.3% 30

6 Michael Busch 53 C — COOL 56 0.156 88.4 8.9% 12.5%vs RHP 404 13.5% 18.2% 16.5% 25

7 Carson Kelly 42 D — COOL 141 0.120 86.8 6.8% 9.1%vs RHP 403 8.1% 0.0% 8.6% 25

8 Nico Hoerner 34 D — WARM 199 0.090 86.0 3.5% 6.1%vs RHP 383 5.2% 0.0% 8.2% 42

vs Kevin Gausman · RHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 57 C — · 38 0.215 92.4 9.7% 21.5%vs RHP 400 14.4% 9.1% 15.9% 33

2 Heriberto Hernández 52 C — COOL 61 0.209 91.1 9.8% 23.3%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% 34

3 Javier Sanoja 44 D — WARM 122 0.160 87.1 4.5% 12.3%vs RHP 385 8.9% 18.2% 12.4% 42

4 Otto Lopez 43 D — · 132 0.135 89.2 6.8% 9.2%vs RHP 398 6.6% 9.1% 10.0% 36

5 Jakob Marsee 42 D — COOL 137 0.127 87.3 5.2% 13.3%vs RHP 386 8.7% 18.2% 11.4% 31

6 Xavier Edwards 34 D — COOL 202 0.091 86.8 4.9% 2.5%vs RHP 396 3.6% 0.0% 7.3% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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