TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.74×

CLE @ BOS

Fenway Park · 7:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 9 mph in 56°F Roof open

Hourly window

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7:10p

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8:10p

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9:10p

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10:10p

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11:10p

the 8:10p window peaks -12

Best of game Willson Contreras conv 26 · vs Griffin ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 22 · vs Gray → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Foster Griffin LHP · WSH

leak 79

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willson Contreras — C ●●●●○

2 Wilyer Abreu — C ●●○○○

3 Nick Sogard — D ●○○○○

FADE Sonny Gray RHP · BOS

leak 56

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●●●○○

2 Angel Martinez — D ●●○○○

3 Steven Kwan — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: Match 27.9% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Willson Contreras ✶ vs Griffin Edge — 0.242 · 89.8 · 10.5% 25.0% 27.9% F B O C 57

· — Wilyer Abreu vs Griffin — 0.202 · 89.9 · 10.2% 10.0% 12.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Gray Edge — 0.160 · 87.8 · 6.0% 27.3% 16.1% F B O D 40

· CLE Angel Martinez HOT vs Gray Edge — 0.210 · 87.6 · 7.4% 0.0% 21.8% F B O D 40

· — Nick Sogard vs Griffin Edge — 0.138 · 86.7 · 6.7% 10.0% 8.4% F B O D 37

· — Caleb Durbin COOL vs Griffin Edge — 0.133 · 83.1 · 4.8% 9.1% 7.8% F B O D 33

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Gray Edge — 0.065 · 83.7 · 1.7% 9.1% 6.2% F B O D 19

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Gray Edge — 0.167 · 91.4 · 6.7% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 36

· — Andruw Monasterio vs Griffin Edge — 0.143 · 87.7 · 7.5% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 38

· — Jarren Duran COOL vs Griffin — 0.156 · 89.7 · 8.8% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 42

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Gray Edge — 0.115 · 90.3 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Gray Edge — 0.138 · 88.5 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 30

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Gray Edge — 0.128 · 87.0 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Sonny Gray — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Foster Griffin — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bazzana Contreras

Legend

attack side — vs Griffin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Willson Contreras — · 57

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.93× Wind 9 mph in 56°F open

-13

↑

9 mph · in

56°F

7:10p

-12

↑

8 mph · in

54°F

8:10p · peak

-12

↑

8 mph · in

53°F

9:10p

-12

↑

8 mph · in

53°F

10:10p

-12

↑

8 mph · in

52°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.74× 56°F, wind 9 mph NE (in) — modifier: -2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sonny Gray · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 40 D — HOT 151 0.210 87.6 7.4% 22.4%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 21.8% 23

2 Travis Bazzana 40 D — WARM 154 0.160 87.8 6.0% 19.7%vs RHP 393 13.0% 27.3% 16.1% 31

3 Chase Delauter 36 D — · 186 0.167 91.4 6.7% 20.0%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 31

4 Patrick Bailey 33 D — WARM 205 0.115 90.3 7.0% 15.2%vs RHP 409 6.7% 0.0% 7.4% 11

5 Jose Ramirez 30 D — COOL 213 0.138 88.5 5.5% 9.3%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 36

6 Brayan Rocchio 30 D — COOL 216 0.128 87.0 4.5% 12.0%vs RHP 384 8.2% 0.0% 7.0% 28

7 Steven Kwan 19 D — COOL 234 0.065 83.7 1.7% 4.0%vs RHP 367 2.1% 9.1% 6.2% 36

vs Foster Griffin · LHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 57 C — WARM 33 0.242 89.8 10.5% 26.7%vs LHP 405 19.4% 25.0% 27.9% 9

2 Wilyer Abreu 50 C — WARM 83 0.202 89.9 10.2% 15.0%vs LHP 406 15.2% 10.0% 12.4% 27

3 Jarren Duran 42 D — COOL 140 0.156 89.7 8.8% 10.0%vs LHP 401 13.5% 0.0% 8.9% 18

4 Andruw Monasterio 38 D — WARM 168 0.143 87.7 7.5% 16.1%vs LHP 390 9.8% 0.0% 10.8% 1

5 Nick Sogard 37 D — WARM 177 0.138 86.7 6.7% 16.7%vs LHP 381 11.5% 10.0% 8.4% 30

6 Caleb Durbin 33 D — COOL 204 0.133 83.1 4.8% 14.3%vs LHP 376 8.2% 9.1% 7.8% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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