TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ KC

Suppressed air · 0.93×

CWS @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 7 mph in 68°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:40p

-5 ↑

7:40p

-4 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

the 8:40p window peaks -4

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 30 · vs Hudson ⟷ Munetaka Murakami conv 30 · vs Lugo → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Bryan Hudson LHP · CWS

leak 95

0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen — C ●●●●●

2 Vinnie Pasquantino — D ●●●●○

3 Michael Massey — D ●●●○○

FADE Seth Lugo RHP · KC

leak 61

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Munetaka Murakami — C+ ●●●●●

2 Miguel Vargas — C+ ●●●●○

3 Chase Meidroth — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 32.3% · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Carter Jensen vs Hudson — 0.219 · 91.2 · 7.7% 33.3% 26.4% F B O C 55

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ COOL vs Lugo Edge — 0.266 · 93.5 · 12.1% 27.3% 32.3% F B O C+ 68

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Lugo — 0.230 · 90.2 · 10.3% 25.0% 24.6% F B O C+ 62

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Lugo — 0.281 · 91.4 · 9.1% 14.3% 20.0% F B O C 58

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Lugo Edge — 0.212 · 88.7 · 9.9% 0.0% 15.2% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Hudson — 0.168 · 89.9 · 6.7% 37.5% 18.5% F B O D 47

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Lugo — 0.138 · 87.4 · 6.0% 23.1% 14.4% F B O D 43

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Hudson — 0.163 · 89.3 · 5.4% 18.2% 14.5% F B O D 41

· KC Nick Loftin vs Hudson Edge — 0.147 · 86.7 · 4.5% 11.1% 6.2% F B O D 37

· KC Jac Caglianone vs Hudson — 0.204 · 93.2 · 8.2% 0.0% 16.8% F B O D 49

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Lugo Edge — 0.179 · 87.4 · 6.7% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 45

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Lugo Edge — 0.170 · 89.2 · 8.2% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 47

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Lugo Edge — 0.128 · 88.9 · 6.1% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 39

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Hudson Edge — 0.161 · 92.1 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 41

· CWS Sam Antonacci vs Lugo Edge — 0.122 · 87.4 · 6.2% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 38

· KC Salvador Perez vs Hudson Edge — 0.145 · 89.1 · 7.1% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 36

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Hudson Edge — 0.111 · 88.1 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Seth Lugo — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Bryan Hudson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Grichuk Meidroth Jensen Pasquantino Massey

Legend

attack side — vs Hudson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Carter Jensen — · 55

Munetaka Murakami — · 68

Miguel Vargas — · 62

Vinnie Pasquantino — · 47

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.03× Wind 7 mph in 68°F open

-5

↑

7 mph · in

68°F

6:40p

-5

↑

7 mph · in

66°F

7:40p

-4

↑

6 mph · in

65°F

8:40p · peak

-4

↑

6 mph · in

63°F

9:40p

-4

↑

6 mph · in

62°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.93× 68°F, wind 7 mph E (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Seth Lugo · RHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 68 C+ — COOL 8 0.266 93.5 12.1% 35.7%vs RHP 402 19.0% 27.3% 32.3% 18

2 Miguel Vargas 62 C+ — COOL 15 0.230 90.2 10.3% 18.1%vs RHP 393 20.3% 25.0% 24.6% 37

3 Randal Grichuk 58 C — · 31 0.281 91.4 9.1% 22.2%vs RHP 387 14.3% 14.3% 20.0% 34

4 Colson Montgomery 56 C — COOL 43 0.212 88.7 9.9% 26.9%vs RHP 397 20.6% 0.0% 15.2% 16

5 Andrew Benintendi 47 D — COOL 101 0.170 89.2 8.2% 14.6%vs RHP 388 11.5% 0.0% 10.6% 16

6 Tristan Peters 45 D — COOL 118 0.179 87.4 6.7% 12.9%vs RHP 377 10.5% 0.0% 10.9% 16

7 Chase Meidroth 43 D — WARM 133 0.138 87.4 6.0% 13.9%vs RHP 381 8.8% 23.1% 14.4% 37

8 Braden Montgomery 39 D — WARM 163 0.128 88.9 6.1% 17.2%vs RHP 395 6.2% 0.0% 8.5% 25

9 Sam Antonacci 38 D — · 171 0.122 87.4 6.2% 10.3%vs RHP 390 6.9% 0.0% 7.7% 32

vs Bryan Hudson · LHP 0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen 55 C — WARM 45 0.219 91.2 7.7% 14.8%vs LHP 398 17.6% 33.3% 26.4% 25

2 Jac Caglianone 49 D — WARM 86 0.204 93.2 8.2% 26.9%vs LHP 416 13.7% 0.0% 16.8% 12

3 Vinnie Pasquantino 47 D — HOT 100 0.168 89.9 6.7% 8.7%vs LHP 394 13.5% 37.5% 18.5% 27

4 Michael Massey 41 D — COOL 145 0.163 89.3 5.4% 23.1%vs LHP 393 8.3% 18.2% 14.5% 36

5 Bobby Witt 41 D — COOL 150 0.161 92.1 7.5% 16.0%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 33

6 Nick Loftin 37 D — · 184 0.147 86.7 4.5% 3.2%vs LHP 397 9.3% 11.1% 6.2% 26

7 Salvador Perez 36 D — WARM 188 0.145 89.1 7.1% 8.7%vs LHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 29

8 Isaac Collins 32 D — COOL 209 0.111 88.1 5.0% 7.1%vs LHP 394 4.8% 0.0% 6.0% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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